In the longer run the City of London and the people who work in it will thrive – they always do.
Brexit doesn’t seem to have done it (m)any favours but perhaps that’s secondary to wider global malaise – war and inflation.
In the short term the Square Mile is rocky. There are (at least) two ways it could go from here.
The best-case scenario is that revenues for investment banking work done six months ago land about now (that’s how it works)., giving a fillip to balance sheets and to confidence.
Private equity firms with billions of cash that need a home find one – deals get done, wheels are greased.
Central banks properly get a grip on inflation faster than we expect. And the upcoming corporate earnings season is decent. That tells the stock market that it is fretting without need and should take a chill pill.
Relief follows. The best champagne – ok, M&S Prosecco – gets cracked.
The alternative is that private equity decides it quite likes the cash it has on hand, inflation be damned. That fund managers so torched by recent turbulence no longer “buy the dips” and won’t go anywhere near an IPO.
Everyone sits there waiting for someone else to Do Something.
Big banks report lousy figures for the second half of the year and finance directors speed up the drive for cost cuts.
Melancholy sets in and HR departments get busy figuring out who it is most expedient to fire.
It could go either way.
For our story today we asked at least a dozen market participants for their view of the situation. Their conclusion: feels chilly out there.
