KYIV, Ukraine _ It had all been going so well.
Up until two weeks ago, Ukraine's novice leader was dazzling investors with a flurry of reforms, bringing back prisoners from Russian captivity and enjoying an approval rating that topped even Vladimir Putin's in neighboring Russia.
Since then, however, it's begun to unravel for Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a former TV comic who shot to power in the spring, backed by voters who yearned for a fresh start after years of corrupt rule.
What started with complaints he's too close to a local billionaire snowballed as a respected reformer saw her house burned down and Zelenskiy found himself at the center of the impeachment probe into U.S. President Donald Trump. To cap things off, an International Monetary Fund mission left on Friday without backing the $5 billion loan pact Zelenskiy's government had sought.
How Zelenskiy tackles these multiple challenges will determine whether Ukrainians were too hasty in electing a leader with no political experience.
"These events serve as a reminder of the underlying fragility of Ukraine's political landscape and the difficulties the new president is set to face," said Liza Ermolenko, an emerging Europe economist at Barclays Plc. "Even with the right intentions, it remains to be seen whether the new team is able to follow on their ambitious promises of reform and a complete transformation of Ukrainian politics."
The IMF setback is a result of Zelenskiy's other problems. While pleased with much of Ukraine's reform work, agreeing on a staff-level agreement at this point was difficult for the fund amid the attacks on ex-central bank Governor Valeriya Gontareva and the situation around the country's No. 1 lender, Privatbank.
The IMF had supported the nationalization of Privatbank in 2016, with subsequent investigations unearthing fraud that required billions of dollars of taxpayer money to remedy. But one of the former owners, billionaire Igor Kolomoisky _ whose TV channel aired Zelenskiy's shows _ says he did nothing wrong and speaks openly of a potential compromise.
A court challenge next week could annul the Finance Ministry's purchase of Privatbank's shares and restore the previous ownership structure. That's a no-go for the IMF and would concern investors, who'd handed Zelenskiy an early show of faith to make the hryvnia this year's best-performing currency.
"Discussions on the new program will continue," IMF mission chief Ron van Rooden said Friday. "Growth is held back by a weak business environment _ with shortcomings in the legal framework, pervasive corruption, and large parts of the economy dominated by inefficient state-owned enterprises or by oligarchs _ deterring competition and investment."
The storm around Trump is also important.
Zelenskiy doesn't come out well from a readout of a phone conversation between the two men in July, during which Trump repeatedly asks his opposite number for an investigation into Joe Biden, a potential opponent in next year's U.S. presidential election.
And remarks to Trump by Zelenskiy about a lack of support for Ukraine from the EU will do him no favors as he leans on the bloc in talks with Russia to end the five-year conflict that erupted after Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea.
Zelenskiy's popularity, which the most recent polls in early September put at 71%, may suffer more from speculation about links to Kolomoisky than the U.S. scandal. But finding a win to counter the tide of negative headlines will be tricky.
The next item on Zelenskiy's policy agenda is ending the war with Kremlin-backed fighters and reintegrating the eastern regions where it's taking place. A summit with the leaders of Germany, France and Russia may be arranged for the coming weeks.
Zelenskiy has indicated he can be more flexible than his predecessor. But he shouldn't rely on Putin to hand him an easy victory.
