There are real concerns about the extent to which the India variant is taking off in parts of England.
Graphs showing the rise of the virus in three parts of England show a concerning pattern with fast, exponential growth in several towns. WalesOnline has charted the growth of the virus in three parts of England, which experts say is being driven by the India variant, and considered what that might mean for Wales.
These areas are:
- Bolton - where there were 1,292 cases over the last week at a rate of 449 per 100,000 as a rolling seven day average.
- Blackburn with Darwen - where there were 470 cases over the last week at a rate of 314 per 100,000 as a rolling seven day average.
- Bedford - where there were 350 cases over the last week at a rate of 202 per 100,000 as a rolling seven day average.
From a Wales perspective, Bolton and Blackburn are a concern because they are located in the north west of England which has very close connections to the north east of Wales. Mark Drakeford has already indicated that this is the route by which the Kent variant came into Wales.
What do the charts show?
These are the rates for each area:
Bolton:
Blackburn and Darwen:
Bedford:
If these interactive graphs won't show on your mobile device you can see a static version here:
What do do these figures mean?
Let's put these figures in context. On May 18, Bolton had 284 new cases. You have to go all the way back to November 2, right as the second wave really got going to see that many cases in a day.
From a Welsh perspective let's look at the cases per 100,000. Bolton has a rate of about 450. The last time Wales as a whole had that rate it was December 9 and we were weeks away from a long lockdown and thousands of people dead.
But there is some more positive news
There are some signs that the vaccines are helping. The graphs below break down the amount of Covid cases by age:
As you can see, the growth is mainly in the younger age categories who are less likely to have received both doses of the vaccine. The latest research suggests that both jabs are required to offer substantial protection. Though it is great news that the vaccines appear to be working it should be remembered that during the last wave in the autumn the virus spread in younger people first before moving into the older population. However there is still cause for positivity.
