Explained: The five factors that will decide if Ireland can move on to phase two of lockdown reopening

The National Public Health Emergency Team will this week recommend whether or not Ireland can move on to stage two of the reopening plan.

NPHET will meet on Thursday before sending their findings to the Minister for Health Simon Harris.

Minister Harris and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will then bring this to the Cabinet on Friday morning where they will make the final decision on what happens next.

And while all signs currently point to the country progressing to stage two of the plan, five factors will be considered by NPHET.

Five considerations before moving to next phase of reopening plan

• The latest data regarding the progression of the disease
• The capacity and resilience of the health service in terms of hospital and ICU occupancy
• The capacity of the programme of sampling, testing and contact tracing
• The ability to shield and care for at risk groups, and
• An assessment of the risk of secondary morbidity and mortality as a consequence of the restrictions.

(L to R) Dr Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health and HSE, Professor Philip Nolan, President, National University of Ireland Maynooth & Chair of NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG) at the Department of Health, Miesian Plaza, Baggot Street, Dublin (Gareth Chaney/Collins)

The other factors

While the state of the disease in the country will be the major factor in any decision - there is other considerations as outlined in the roadmap which are listed here;

• It will also provide risk-based public health advice on what measures could be modified in the next period.

• The Government would then consider what restrictions could be lifted, having regard to the advice of the Department of Health as well as other social and economic considerations, e.g. the potential for increased employment, relative benefits for citizens and businesses, improving national morale and wellbeing etc.

• It is acknowledged that there is also an ongoing possibility that restrictions could be re-imposed and this process will be carried out on an ongoing basis once every three weeks.

When will we find out if we can move onto phase two?

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will make a state address on Friday afternoon where he will approve - or delay - the move to phase two.