What an election evening! What a result! After a night in which Germany struggled to digest the stunning results of its general election, the country woke up this morning to discover it didn't have a chancellor. It was a disastrous night for the conservative leader Angela Merkel, whose centre-right coalition was supposed to win a clear – if narrow - victory. Instead Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrats won just 35.2% of the vote, one of the worst results in the party's history.
Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats finished just behind with 34.3% - polling much better than expected. Mrs Merkel's coalition partner the Free Democrats (FDP) also had a good night – winning 9.8%. The Greens, led by Joschka Fischer, got 8.1%. Germany's new Left Party emerged with 8.7% of the vote, and will now form a strong parliamentary faction in Germany's new Bundestag.
Both Merkel and Schröder last night insisted that they now had a right to become Germany's next chancellor. There were some pantomime-like moments as the two rivals met on ZDF television after the exit polls. Told by the interviewer that he couldn't be chancellor because he didn't have a majority, Schröder shot back: 'Oh yes I can'.
Mrs Merkel, meanwhile, pointed out that her party had the biggest number of MPs in the new parliament – a fact that entitled her to form a government. The Social Democrats would wake up to this 'reality' after a day or two, she added. Despite her narrow advantage, however, the popular perception is that Mrs Merkel 'lost' Germany's election - throwing away a 21-point lead. She could nevertheless still become Germany's first ever woman chancellor. But it's hard to see how.
At the moment no party has an overall majority in the new parliament – with the CDU on 225 seats, the SPD on 222, the FDP on 61, the Left party on 54, and the Greens on 51. The only way for either Merkel or Schröder to govern is at the head of a coalition. The problem is: which coalition? The FDP's Guido Westerwelle has ruled out doing a deal with Mr Schröder; Mr Schröder has ruled out forming a 'grand coalition' with the CDU under Mrs Merkel; and everybody has ruled out doing a deal with the new Left Party.
The only coalition that seems possible is the 'Jamaican' coalition between the CDU, FDP and the Greens (so called because the parties' black, yellow and green colours resemble the Jamaican flag). Before the election nobody had given this option much thought. This morning, though, the CDU will almost certainly be making overtures to Joschka Fischer – Germany's ex-street fighting foreign minister. He now appears to have the role of kingmaker.
Fischer's party has been in power for seven years in a red-green coalition. The party's sympathies - and most of its middle-class voters - lie on the left. Last night, however, Fischer left the door open to the possibility of coalition negotiations - saying the Greens could be in opposition in the parliament or could 'play another role'.
Will Fischer spring a surprise? Last night he described Mrs Merkel's policies as 'cold' and 'ecologically backward'. On nuclear policy the Greens and the CDU vehemently disagree. Schröder's red-green government has begun a phase-out of nuclear energy; the CDU wants to extend Germany's nuclear power stations. In other areas, though, the Greens and the CDU are not so far apart. The only certainty, though, is that Germany is heading for a period of deadlock. And if the two big parties fail to put a coalition together, then the country could face fresh elections later in the year.
