Sixty-eight teams entered, only four remain ... and they’re anything but the usual suspects barring one exception. Here’s a look at who’s left and who’s got the best chance of cutting down the nets in Phoenix.
4) South Carolina
Why They Can Win A team that is seeded No7 and has overcome as much as South Carolina has to get to the Final Four can win two more games.
Why They Can’t Win A team that is seeded No7 and has overcome as much as South Carolina has to get to the Final Four can’t win two more games. A No7 seed has gone all the way only once, the 2014 UConn Huskies.
MVP Guard Sindarius Thornwell, who scored 26 points (including nine of 10 free-throw attempts) in the huge upset win over Kentucky. (The word was that Baylor watched three hours of film just on him and he still put up 24.)
Best Moment So Far Outscoring the Florida Gators by 14 in the second half to win 77-70 and book the first Final Four trip in school history.
Most Difficult Moment So Far Being down to the higher seeded Gators by seven at the half.
Key Stat One. This is the Gamecocks’ first ever Final Four (and, of course, they’ve never won the championship).
3) Oregon
Why They Can Win Oregon spreads it around: all five starters averaged over 10 points a game this year. Since star power forward Chris Boucher suffered a torn ACL and was lost for the season in the Pac-12 semi-finals, they haven’t missed a beat.
Why They Can’t Win The Ducks bench isn’t nearly as strong as their starting lineup. A starter in foul trouble could do them in.
MVP Guard Tyler (“Mr March”) Dorsey, scored 20 points against Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen and 27 points with six 3’s in Saturday’s spectacular upset of Kansas.
Most Difficult Moment So Far With 1:06 to play against Michigan last week, the Ducks were down by a point.
Best Moment So Far Down by a point with 1:08, Tyler Dorsey’s lay-up set the Ducks up for the 69-68 win.
Key Stat 78. The numbers of years since the Ducks’ last Final Four appearance in 1939, the first ever NCAA tournament. (That was also the only year they won the championship.)
2) North Carolina
Why They Can Win Battle tested: None of the remaining teams in the Final Four has had a schedule anywhere near as tough as the Tar Heels.
Why They Can’t Win There is none. Honestly, we’ve tried again and again and we can’t find a real weakness. If they don’t win it all, it will be because they faced a team that was better on that particular day.
MVP Forward Luke Maye has scored 33 points and come down with 15 rebounds in North Carolina’s last two tournament games, including the big 2-pointer that put the Tar Heels ahead of the Wildcats with 0.3 left to play and landed them in the Final Four. (And he was back in class on Monday morning!)
Best Moment So Far North Carolina thwarted a Kentucky comeback with 12 unanswered points in the last five minutes.
Most Difficult Moment So Far In Sunday’s game, with 10 seconds on the clock, a three-pointer by Kentucky’s Malik Monk tied the game at 73. There wasn’t a soul at FedExForum who didn’t think that the Tar Heels and Wildcats were looking at OT.
Key Stat Eight. That’s the ranking for the Tar Heels’ schedule toughness by Sagarin. In comparison, Gonzaga played only the 101st toughest sked, Oregon 56th and South Carolina 38th.
1) Gonzaga
Why They Can Win The top-seeded Bulldogs have the best record in the country and are ranked No1 in most of the major computer rankings.
Why They Can’t Win According to Jeff Sagarin at USA Today, Gonzaga played the 101st-weakest schedule, the worst of any team that made it as far as the Sweet 16.
MVP Nigel Williams-Goss – a guard, and not, as is name would suggest, a BBC announcer – may be the most versatile player remaining in the tournament. In second-weekend against West Virginia and Xavier, he had 33 points, 15 rebounds and six assists.
Best Moment So Far With less than a minute on the clock in the Sweet 16 game against West Virginia, guard Jordan Mathews’s three-pointer sealed the deal for the Bulldogs.
Most Difficult Moment So Far Nearly blowing their chance to get to the Final Four for the first time in school history by only beating West Virginia 61-58. They had 16 turnovers (their second highest total of their season) and managed only a 45.5% effective shooting percentage. Other than that. Gonzaga hasn’t had a bad moment since Bing Crosby died in 1977.
Key Stat 36. Their number of wins, tops in the nation (and four games more than the four teams tied for second with 32). The Bulldogs’ only loss was to BYU on 25 February, 79-71 – at a point in the season when there wasn’t much at stake. If head coach Mark Few hadn’t been so liberal in the use of his bench, Gonzaga might still be unbeaten.
None of the last 24 teams to enter the NCAAs either undefeated or with just one loss won it all, but these Zags have been making history all season long. Don’t be surprised if the slipper fits at last to cap a Cinderella story nearly two decades in the making.
