If you are reading this column then there is something fundamental about the federal election campaign that you need to understand: what comes next has absolutely nothing to do with you.
If you are passionate about policy and budget priorities or, God forbid, you care about the future of the planet or the sort of society you will leave your kids, now is not your moment.
Because now is the time the circus goes into overdrive, when the parties say whatever it takes and do whatever they can to cut through the white noise and fug of cynicism to reach the least politically engaged people in this land.
Even two weeks out, it is is hard to get a definitive read on the outcome because 10% of respondents cannot even answer a question as general as this: If a federal election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – well which party are you currently leaning to?
Even with these riders, one in 10 voters can’t give an answer and so are removed from our sample – and yet all will be legally obliged to front up and meet their obligation to democracy on 18 May.
Their responses are not even included among the 45% of voters who say they are paying little or no attention to the election; meaning more than half the electorate enter the final weak with no deep engagement in the choice which will determine the direction for the nation for the next three years.
What is breaking through at present are the freak shows on the fringes of the circus. When asked to nominate a news story they have noticed in the past week the following themes have taken centre stage.
It’s the scandals, the withdrawn candidates, the One Nation strip club, the carefully staged debates, the Clive Palmers and Pauline Hansons that have grabbed attention. Bill Shorten is there, although probably not in good way for Labor given it’s the Coalition’s strategy to make him the issue and not their own record.
The cut-through is a triumph of negative research as partisan staffers run dirt units that scrape candidates’ social media profiles for compromising material to create “gotcha” moments that leave leaders exposed and defensive. It also says much of the news priorities of the media following the campaign, convinced themselves that these moments matter, creating a self-perpetuity cycle of vacuity.
The escalation in dirt and gotcha moments drags any focus off actual policy. Take Friday when Shorten gave an impassioned speech to a disability forum, made a major announcement on NDIS funding only to front the media scrum outside to answer questions on on the Facebook habits of a candidate who was never going to trouble the scorer. And it’s working both ways, although Morrison’s transaction cost is lower: just another day when he can’t deliver his own set of negative messages.
In the fury of the freak show, policy is ignored. Which is a pity because in separate questions in this week’s Essential Report there is strong enthusiasm for key elements of both sides’ platforms. For Labor the extension of Medicare to cancer patients, the investment in Tafe, in the commitment to renewables. For the Coalition the infrastructure spending proposals, the mental health initiatives, the promise to muscle up to energy companies, are all endorsed.
But these aren’t the issues the uncommitted will be offered to consider as they are forced to the stump on polling day with little to guide them but some garish bunting, shouty negative ads and maybe some irritating robo-calls.
For them the choice will be whether to heed the exhortations to reject Labor’s besquillions in new taxes and the “Bill they can’t afford” or end the “cuts and chaos” of the current regime.
That’s all that matters in the last two weeks: the advertising budgets, the power of a press invested in the status quo and bibs and bobs of social media hurtling around the internet in search of a target.
How this breaks will change our nation and determine our immediate – and maybe long-term – capacity to confront climate change and our pretence to an egalitarian society and ability to make peace with our Indigenous people.
And if you are still reading this piece then you really have no say over how this breaks. Unless, that is, you can find one of these disengaged people in your family or your workplace or your neighbourhood and have the slightly awkward conversation that comes with trying to talk about what you believe in.
But if you can’t or won’t do this then this is not about you. You should probably just log off now, cross your fingers and resurface on election night when it’s all done and dusted.
What’s that line about the democracy we deserve?
Peter Lewis is an executive director of Essential, a progressive strategic communications and research company
