Chelsea Frank Lampard has had a selection headache to contend with this season.
Whether that be the waning form of first-choice goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga or the early season drop-off in Cesar Azpilicueta’s performances, it has not been an easy task selecting the best XI every week.
What if he could choose Chelsea’s best starting XI with no limitations and no restrictions, based purely on the statistics?
Using Lampard’s favoured and most-used 4-3-3, this is how it may look.
Goalkeeper – Kepa Arrizabalaga
While Willy Caballero has been chosen between the posts in recent games, his performances do not statistically supersede Kepa Arrizabalaga.
The Spaniard may be having the worst season of his professional career in terms of save percentage – a meagre 58% of shots on target saved – but it still betters Caballero’s 53%.
Given that Kepa has also played considerably more minutes than the veteran Argentine, it suggests over the long term, Kepa would statistically be a safer pair of hands.
Right-back – Reece James
The young English full-back gets the nod in this statistical XI over César Azpilicueta. James betters the Spanish international especially when going forward, registering 2.18 successful dribbles per 90 at a 73% success rate.
Azpilicueta on the other hand only manages 0.3 dribbles per 90, at a hugely reduced success rate.
James also has a better passing accuracy, cross completion rate, commits fewer fouls and marginally betters Azpilicueta in Expected Assists (xA).
Azpilicueta posts better defensive numbers in tackles won and interceptions made, but in the modern game, James’ high-energy approach is symptomatic of a new breed of full-back.
Centre-back – Kurt Zouma
Zouma towers over the competition physically and metaphorically when it comes to his defensive work. Averaging close to 4 successful aerial duels per 90 and winning almost three-quarters of them is a magnificent effort.
It is something which none of Chelsea’s other centre-back options come close to matching.
Not only that, Zouma ranks highly for his distribution – registering 3.6 passes into the final third per 90, suggesting he is a valuable player when it comes to contributing to build-up.
He is clearly adept in numerous areas.
Centre-back – Fikayo Tomori
Tomori would partner Zouma in this statistically-oriented XI, mainly because of the differing skillset he possesses. Less of a long-ball player, Tomori’s stats suggest he is much better at going to meet ground duels head on.
He averages 2.29 tackles won per 90 and wins six out of seven of the tackles he contests – a formidable opponent.
In such a hands-on role, it could be expected that Tomori would commit plenty of fouls but that is not the case. In fact, statistically he commits a foul once every other game.
Left-back – Emerson Palmieri
For the coveted left-back spot, it is Italy versus Spain; Emerson Palmieri versus Marcos Alonso. In this battle, it is Emerson who comes out on top, bettering Alonso’s efforts in almost every important metric to full-backs.
Emerson commits fewer fouls, wins a higher percentage of his tackles and completes proportionally more dribbles per 90 than Alonso. The only area where the Spaniard trumps the Italian is in terms of creativity – and that is marginal at best.
Emerson’s 78% tackle success, 72% dribble success and resolve in his defensive work wins out over Alonso’s efforts.
Central-midfield – N’Golo Kante
As to be expected in central midfield, N’Golo Kanté is as impressive statistically as he is visually. His ceaseless energy is reflected by his 2.28 interceptions per 90, as well as his 68% tackle success rate.
These figures place him in the 95th and 87th percentiles for defensive and central midfielders across Europe’s top five leagues.
Always eager to demonstrate his multifaceted skillset, Kanté ranks highly for dribbles completed and his non-penalty goals and assists output – 0.24 per 90 – is striking for a midfielder accustomed to sitting deeper.
Central-midfield – Jorginho
Alongside Kanté is Jorginho, primarily for his excellent ball-playing ability. No Chelsea player comes close to his yield in this regard. With 8.18 passes played into the final third per 90, Jorginho is a textbook deep creator.
He is also proficient with distributing over long distances – averaging 4.42 successful long balls per 90, completing two-thirds of all those he attempts.
Combined with his ability to read the game and his high proportion of interceptions, Jorginho is statistically the best option to sit at the base of Frank Lampard’s midfield trio.
Central-midfield – Mateo Kovacic
Making up Chelsea’s midfield three is this season’s pick of the bunch. Mateo Kovacic has been mightily impressive and his statistics reflect that brilliantly.
Possessing similar ball-playing capabilities to Jorginho, while committing fewer fouls per 90 than both the Italian and N’Golo Kanté, Kovačić has been dominant.
He adds another dimension to Chelsea’s play, crucially bringing a huge ball-carrying presence. Kovacic averages 4 successful dribbles per 90 at an 86% success rate, meaning whenever he picks the ball up and attempts to beat an opponent – which he does a lot – more often than not he succeeds.
Right-wing – Willian
Out wide, Willian still dominates his younger peers for his position. Ranking highly across Europe’s top five leagues for dribbling success and passes into the penalty area, statistically he is exactly who is needed on the edge of the box.
While his xA figure of 0.23 per 90 is not the best out of Chelsea’s attackers, no other player beats it by a fair margin.
Similarly, he completes just under a third of his crosses which puts him in the 87th percentile compared to other wingers and attacking midfielders across Europe.
Left-wing – Callum Hudson-Odoi
Perhaps a rogue suggestion given Hudson-Odoi’s apparent shyness in front of goal, he excels in almost every other metric which primarily concerns wingers.
His xA total of 0.26 per 90 betters his teammate on the opposite side, as does his 2.39 passes into the penalty area per 90.
An ardent dribbler and crosser registering just over 3 successful dribbles and 2 successful crosses per 90, Hudson-Odoi is proving to be a worthy statistical asset on the flanks.
Striker – Tammy Abraham
Strikers are employed to score goals and despite a drop-off in form of late, Tammy Abraham’s excellent early season displays mean there can be no other selection here.
His 0.58 non-penalty xG figure stands head and shoulders above Olivier Giroud, who does offer more off the ball but cannot compete with Abraham’s potency in front of goal.
Batshuayi’s xG numbers do better Abraham’s but that is because he has played 2,000 fewer minutes this season, and a conversion rate half as good as the Englishman’s suggests Batshuayi would not be able to replicate that in the long run.
Chelsea's last XI in the win over Everton: Kepa, Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Zouma, Alonso, Barkley, Gilmour, Mount, Willian, Giroud, Pedro.
