Earlier this campaign, Mikel Arteta predicted that any team hoping to win the Premier League would have to acquire “over 90 points.”
That forewarning has fallen flat. Neither Arsenal nor Manchester City can amass more than 85 points. There is the very real scenario in which they both end the campaign on that same understated tally.
However, that is working on the assumption that both sides embark upon winning runs that have thus far evaded them this season—which explains why Arteta’s lofty prediction has not come to pass. Ahead of a run-in which promises plenty more twists and turns, here’s how and when the title could yet be decided.
The Earliest Date Arsenal Could Win the 2025–26 Premier League Title
It may seem inconceivable in the bitter aftertaste of their defeat at the Etihad, but Arsenal still have the title in their hands. There is even a scenario where the Gunners could be celebrating victory as early as May 10.
For Arteta’s side to end the club’s 22-year trophy drought with two games of the campaign to spare, they would need Manchester City to take no more than two points from their next three matches against Burnley, Everton and Brentford.
In that admittedly unlikely event, the Gunners could have the campaign wrapped up by defeating Newcastle United, Fulham and then West Ham United at the London Stadium on Sunday, May 10.
Arsenal’s Earliest Coronation
| Date | Fixture | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| April 22 | Burnley vs. Man City | Man City draw |
| April 25 | Arsenal vs. Newcastle | Arsenal win |
| May 2 | Arsenal vs. Fulham | Arsenal win |
| May 4 | Everton vs. Man City | Man City loss |
| May 9 | Man City vs. Brentford | Man City draw |
| May 10 | West Ham vs. Arsenal | Arsenal win |
The Earliest Date Man City Could Win the 2025–26 Premier League Title
Manchester City will have to wait a little longer than Arsenal to win the title. Even if Guardiola’s side rattle off three straight victories which are matched by a trio of defeats for their closest rivals, they will still head into the middle of May without glory secured.
Should City’s game-in-hand against Crystal Palace be scheduled for May 22 as expected (but not yet confirmed, helpfully enough), the perennial champions can theoretically wrap up the title on the weekend of May 17.
The Premier League are yet to release the dates and times of those fixtures—the TV companies will be waiting to see which are the most decisive contests for the best viewing times—so it remains to be seen whether City would even need to play a game that weekend.
Man City's Earliest Coronation
| Date | Fixture | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| April 22 | Burnley vs. Man City | Man City win |
| April 25 | Arsenal vs. Newcastle | Arsenal loss |
| May 2 | Arsenal vs. Fulham | Arsenal loss |
| May 4 | Everton vs. Man City | Man City win |
| May 9 | Man City vs. Brentford | Man City win |
| May 10 | West Ham vs. Arsenal | Arsenal loss |
| May 17* | Arsenal vs. Burnley and Bournemouth vs. Man City | Man City avoid defeat or Arsenal don’t win |
* Exact time and date to be confirmed.
How the Premier League Title Race Can Come Down to the Final Day
There is the very real possibility that Arsenal and Manchester City are not only still battling for the title come Sunday, May 24, but they may even be on the same points tally.
If the division’s top two win their remaining matches, they will both be locked on 82 points with just 90 minutes of soccer left to play. Given how close both teams are in terms of goal difference and goals scored, there is even the chance that the rarely spotted tiebreaker of head-to-head records gets dusted off and used. In that scenario, City would be crowned champions, as they got the better of Arsenal at the Etihad after drawing in north London back in the autumn.
Arsenal have the more straightforward fixture list (on paper at least), but both sides would expect to beat their final-day opponents.
While the Gunners travel to Crystal Palace’s Selhurst Park, City host Aston Villa. Arteta’s side have already beaten their London rivals twice, knocking the Eagles out of the Carabao Cup quarterfinals after Eberechi Eze scored the only goal against his former employers at the Emirates.
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal
| Stat | Arsenal Result |
|---|---|
| Reverse Fixture Result | 1–0 win |
| Record Over Last Five Games | W4 D1 L0 |
| Record at Venue Over Last Five Games | W4 D0 L1 |
City were defeated by Villa when the pair faced off in October; Matty Cash decided the game with a well-struck effort after a corner routine. City found themselves fifth in the table at that point in the season, trailing Arsenal as well as Bournemouth, Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland. Fast forward six months and a win against the same opponents could cement one of Guardiola’s most dramatic title triumphs.
The Catalan coach has history on his side. City have won their last 15 Premier League matches at the Etihad against Aston Villa, a run stretching back to April 2007 when Stuart Pearce’s Cityzens were beaten by a set of visitors spearheaded by Ashley Young and Gabby Agbonlahor.
Man City vs. Aston Villa
| Stat | Man City Result |
|---|---|
| Reverse Fixture Result | 1–0 loss |
| Record Over Last Five Games | W2 D0 L3 |
| Record at Venue Over Last Five Games | W5 D0 L0 |
READ THE LATEST PREMIER LEAGUE NEWS, ANALYSIS AND INSIGHT FROM SI FC
- Four Wolves Players Premier League Clubs Should Sign After Relegation Confirmation
- ‘Hopeful’—Arsenal Given Huge Bukayo Saka Boost for Title Run-In
- Alejandro Garnacho’s Chelsea Future Compounded by Liam Rosenior Comments
- Who Is Eduardo Conceicao? Everything to Know About ‘Hottest Prospect in the World’
- Giorgi Mamardashvili Injury: Progress, Potential Date Return for Liverpool Goalkeeper
This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Earliest Arsenal or Man City Can Win the Premier League.
