Online platforms such as Polymarket allow gamblers to bet against one another on practically anything, including weather wagers such as the “highest temperature in London tomorrow”. According to an online urban legend, a Chinese student successfully gamed this system to make a pile of money.
The student supposedly used Metar, meteorological aerodrome reports. These are used in the aviation industry and are updated hourly, unlike most other publicly available weather forecasts which only update every few hours. The student is said to have used an AI-based system running on two PCs in his dorm room to download Metar data, scan weather-betting sites and identify mismatches between the two where he could get good odds. He made a series of successful bets and soon amassed more than $100,000 (£73,500).
But the story is dubious because betting on weather is such a niche area, and it is unlikely the student would find enough takers. The lack of identifying details is also the hallmark of urban legend. The story seems more likely to be an interesting idea of what someone could do in theory, rather than something someone has actually done.
The technology is certainly available though. Even students now have access to enough processing power and online data to carry out real-time global weather surveys, whether for their legitimate studies or for personal financial motives.
…
