So there you are on the Internet, cruising the online sportsbooks looking for some action on the UFC 235 main event. But there’s a problem.
As a roughly 8-1 favorite, depending on the source (for our purposes here we’ll be looking at BestFightOdds.com), UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones doesn’t offer much return on your investment. And while Anthony Smith could pay off big as a 7-1 underdog, maybe you can’t quite talk yourself into believing that he’ll be the one to dethrone the king.
What are you supposed to do now, just save your money like a responsible adult? Not a chance. Instead you go shopping for deals in the land of the prop bets. Because any degenerate sports gambler knows that that’s where the real stupid fun lies.
The bet: Fight won’t start Round 2
The odds: +145 (meaning a $100 bet wins you $145)
What you’re thinking: Jones is a scary man, especially when he’s focused and prepared, as he would have us believe he is for this fight. And Smith? Well, he’s a plucky underdog. He’s likable. He’s a nice, smart guy. He might also be woefully out of his depth here against the best fighter on the planet. Is it so hard to imagine Jones steamrolling him for a first-round victory? Not really. But if Smith does win, isn’t it most likely to come via first-round shocker, a la Georges St-Pierre vs. Matt Serra?
Why it might not work: Jones hasn’t finished a fight in the opening round since he trucked Chael Sonnen back in 2013 – and that’s the only first-round finish of his UFC title reign. He’s just not the kind of fighter who’s in any great hurry. Typically, he uses the first round to feel an opponent out and test for weaknesses. Then comes the part when he chips away until the other guy crumbles. He could dominate Smith and you could still lose your bet. Which would really sting.
The bet: Jones wins by submission
The odds: +172
What you’re thinking: Somewhere in the mind of the champion lurks the slightest fear of the upset. He’s a student of this here sport. He knows how the MMA gods love themselves some shock and awe. And if you’re going to get shocked by a huge underdog, isn’t it probably going to come in the form of a knockout blow you never saw coming? To ward off that evil, best to return to your roots by taking Smith down and beating him on the floor. And while you’re down there, hey, why not grab a choke or an armbar?
Why it might not work: Again, the historical record. Jones’ last submission win was when he hit that Americana on Vitor Belfort in 2012. While he had several subs before then, lately he’s preferred to get a dominant position and let his elbows do the rest of the work.
The bet: Jones wins by unanimous decision
The odds: +1050
What you’re thinking: You know that thing about Jones not being in any particular hurry to finish? Not so hard to imagine that stretching out for all five rounds. Plus, Smith is a tough guy, isn’t he? He’s not going away easily. And let’s not act like Ovince Saint-Preux and Glover Teixeira didn’t both go the distance with Jones, because they did, even if those fights were never particularly competitive. This could easily go to the scorecards, and when it does the most likely outcome is Jones across the board. At 10-1 odds, that’s a hefty payout if you’re right.
Why it might not work: Does it seem to you like Jones might be out to make a more emphatic statement in this fight? Because that’s how it feels to me …
The bet: Smith by submission
The odds: +1750
What you’re thinking: OK, stay with me for a second. Can Jones take Smith down? Sure he can. Does Smith know that? You’d hope so, yeah. So what’s he been drilling this entire camp? The surprise armbar from the bottom. The same one that Belfort briefly caught Jones in, which might still be the closest we’ve come to seeing Jones finished in a fight. Also, come on, 10 bucks could win you $175 here, and that’s nothing to sneeze at.
Why it might not work: You already know why. Yes you do.
For more on UFC 235, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
The Blue Corner is MMAjunkie’s blog space. We don’t take it overly seriously, and neither should you. If you come complaining to us that something you read here is not hard-hitting news, expect to have the previous sentence repeated in ALL CAPS.
