The data behind McLaren's analysis: Does Ferrari have…

The data behind McLaren's analysis: Does Ferrari have the best chassis in F1?

Lewis Hamilton was already parked next to the P1 board on Saturday afternoon when FIA officials had to do a "Vettel" by swapping the position boards. McLaren was the last team out on track at the end of Q3, allowing Norris to snatch pole at the very last moment.

It secured the first grand prix pole position of the year for a non-Mercedes works team, although most of the attention ahead of qualifying had been focused on another team. Ferrari was widely regarded as the favourite in the paddock around the twisty Hungaroring.

Norris’ surprising pole lap underlines that McLaren's upgrades are working, but even with those new parts Stella had not expected this outcome.

"In fairness, we didn't think that would be enough to be on pole-position in Hungary, where we knew that Ferrari would definitely be the favourite."

Ferrari still impressing rivals in low-speed corners

Norris said a few weeks ago that, in his view, Ferrari has the best chassis on the grid – even better than Mercedes – and despite McLaren securing pole position, Stella still shares that opinion.

"I think Ferrari still has the best chassis in terms of grip in the corners. This is very apparent in braking," Stella said after a question from Motorsport.com.

According to him, there are several specific areas around the Hungaroring where the Scuderia's strength stands out more than anywhere else.

"Their performance in corner 1, in corner 12, when you brake and turn into low speed, is still a decent step ahead of everyone else," he explained.

"We have been able to improve the car in the medium-high speed, where we are more comparable to Ferrari. But if you take corner 1, corner 12, and corner 13, we still lose a decent amount of time."

Stella's comments are backed up by the data. Hamilton is exactly two tenths behind Norris under braking for Turn 12, but manages to erase that entire deficit through Turns 12 and 13, exactly in line with Stella's analysis.

Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton's fastest qualifying laps for the Hungarian GP compared (Photo by: GP Tempo)

"I have to say that despite Hungary being dominated by the performance in the corners, we actually make some of our lap time difference to Ferrari in the straights," Stella continued.

"So we improved in some areas where we are now, here in Hungary at least, comparable to Ferrari. But we need to improve further in low speed."

That, together with the upgrades, made the difference, although Stella also pointed to another factor: execution. In his view, McLaren executed better than Ferrari on Saturday.

"The fact is that the upgrades delivered as we intended, but I think today the pole-position is a little bit of an overachievement. It's thanks to the execution and maximising the potential that was available."

The competition left more on the table in that respect.

"But I suspect that if we do qualify again, probably Ferrari might go for a simpler plan. Maybe they will go for a soft in Q1, just keep it more simple, and then optimise it.

"And probably even from a Mercedes point of view, Antonelli is another driver that missed FP1. And I think in this condition, this might have cost [him]. So it's a bit of an overdelivery here. If we want to stay in this position, we need to keep improving the car."

Ferrari gains a lot of time to McLaren under braking and in Turns 12 and 13, exactly in line with Stella's analysis (Photo by: GP Tempo)

McLaren's development strenght no longer making the difference?

Perhaps the most positive takeaway is that McLaren's upgrade package is performing exactly as expected. The Woking-based team has built up an impressive track record with in-season development over the past few years, although Stella emphasised that the situation is different for every team under the 2026 regulations.

"I have to say this year, pretty much all the top teams have always been successful in introducing upgrades, based on what I can see. And I think this is because the rules are still relatively immature, and the opportunities in terms of developing the car are almost low-hanging fruit to cash in.

"So, I don't think McLaren has any particular advantage in like, 'oh everything we take is successful'. I think everyone is now doing a good job in terms of bringing successful upgrades."

As a result, Stella believes it is mainly a question of maintaining the current rate of progress for as long as possible within the constraints of the budget cap.

"I think it will be more about how many upgrades the top teams will be in condition to deliver so far and what's left for the rest of the season, because we are only midway in this season. So, I think it's far too early to say whether this is a turning point for McLaren or not."