Get all your news in one place.
100's of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Football London
Football London
Sport
Josh Williams

The damning truth behind Unai Emery's Arsenal record to put Champions League at risk again

The Premier League campaign is now 10 matches old, an adequate enough sample to judge how teams are performing fairly accurately.

Arsenal are currently positioned in fifth place but the table is prone to telling lies.

Performance indicators can be useful for judging a team's level beneath the surface to gauge an understanding of whether a side are better or worse than their actual results, removing aspects such as luck and refereeing decisions.

How do Unai Emery's team look according to their underlying numbers, and do they identify as top four standard?

On the attacking side, Arsenal seem overly reliant on the finishing capability of their attackers.

Expected Goals (xG) for example, offers an insight into the likelihood of a shot being scored by considering aspects such as difficulty and location. It tends to provide an accurate summary of whether a team deserved fewer or more goals based on their chances.

Emery's team have been expected to score 12.3 goals this season which is the 13th-best figure in the division at this stage.

The team's xG is worse than that posted by Aston Villa, Burnley, Norwich and West Ham, which isn't great for a team with top four ambitions.

The reason for Arsenal's xG being relatively low largely stems from the amount of shots they take.

Emery's side seem unable to dominate opposing teams, with 119 attempts on goal so far. That is the 10th-most behind the likes of Southampton, Watford and Manchester United.

xG per shot, which offers an insight into how clear-cut a team's chances tend to be on average, has Arsenal near the bottom of the table.

Those figures essentially suggest that Arsenal shoot at a league-average rate and when they do, those shots are often hit from areas that are difficult to find the net from.

In comparison to last season, the North London club seem to have become worse in that regard.

Arsenal struggled to accumulate shots last year but the chances were relatively easy to finish once they did materialise, which no longer seems to be the case.

Luckily for them elite-level players such as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang remain contracted to the club and while the stats suggest that Gabonese striker should only have been expected to bag 3.3 goals so far this season he's actually scored seven.

This is largely how the Gunners have managed to gain attacking returns with 15 goals scored in the league so far, an over-performance on xG of three goals.

Defensively, Arsenal's numbers are equally concerning.

In terms of xG Against the Gunners, Emery's side are 15th having been expected to concede around 16 goals.

Moreover, Arsenal are joint 17th for shots faced with 144 on their goal alongside Burnley.

The average difficulty of those shots is relatively average but the Spaniard should be concerned by how many rivals are able to amass against his team.

By facing so many shots, Arsenal are open to a greater degree of randomness influencing their results.

Not only are they leaving plenty to chance in the quality of their finishers with 11.9 shots per match, many of which are low quality, they are allowing opponents to attempt 14.4 shots of their own.

Unai Emery at Bramall Lane (Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)

Strike a ball just right at an unlikely angle and wonder goals can be scored and Arsenal are allowing the teams they face the opportunity to take more of those gambles than they should.

Ultimately, after player quality, luck, refereeing decisions and results are accounted for it becomes apparent that Emery has Arsenal performing at the level of a team deserving to be around the 10th to 15th-best team in the Premier League.

That is a big concern considering the stature of the club and how long he's been in charge to get his plans in motion.

Based purely on the numbers, Arsenal struggle to control their environment. They attack to a mid-table standard and they allow too much to happen in their own defensive half for consistency to be achieved.

Consequently, it's likely that their results will fluctuate drastically throughout the campaign because there is room for anything to occur during their fixtures.

That simply isn't the case for their competitors for top four this season: Liverpool, Manchester City or Chelsea this season and, to a lesser extent, Leicester City.

If their underlying indicators remain unchanged then a place in next season's Champions League will essentially depend upon the flip of a coin - and whether Aubameyang can continue to find the net with above-average finishing from mediocre service.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100's of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.