The Chicago Cubs have made the postseason in each of the past four years and return essentially the core of last year’s 95-win team. Longevity is difficult in baseball, but most would look at the Cubs’ roster and see a team capable of contending in 2019.
Baseball Prospectus’ projection system, PECOTA, doesn’t work that way. (Good explainer of what it is here).
PECOTA currently has the Cubs finishing at 79-83 and last place in the NL Central (a game worse than Sunday’s 80-82 projection), and the Cubs aren’t exactly pleased. The Cubs have turned that bad projection into a form of motivation while simultaneously dismissing PECOTA’s importance altogether. Last week, Joe Maddon said the PETOCA projections meant nothing.
Now, take a look at the Cubs’ workout schedule. The beef with PECOTA made an appearance.
I wouldn’t say that the Cubs are outraged over the projection, but they do feel slighted. The absence of a specific person to yell at has in turn given the Cubs a faceless villain. They outperformed PECOTA’s 2018 projection by four games last year, and they’ll probably outperform the projections by a ton this season.
PECOTA predicted the Royals to win 72 games in 2015, and Kansas City won 95 and the World Series. It’s been wrong before, and it will be wrong again.
