As the UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari prepares to unveil his plan for Kosovo, an online petition is circulating opposing independence for the breakaway Serbian province.
Sponsored by a Serbian-American, the petition addressed to President George Bush and the US Congress, states: "We believe that granting Kosovo independence would be a grave political error, that will not only completely destabilise the region, but will also set a precedent that could trigger similar independence movements around the globe."
Kosovo has been under UN administration since 1999, when Nato conducted a bombing campaign that drove out Serb forces accused by the west of "ethnic cleansing". But ethnic Albanians, who make up about 90% of Kosovo's population of 2 million, are increasingly impatient for independence.
In 2004, political frustrations boiled over when Albanian mobs targeted Serb civilians and property, including Orthodox churches. So Mr Ahtisaari is caught between two diametrically opposed forces.
His task has been made even more difficult by the success of hardline nationalists in this month's Serbian parliamentary elections. The Radicals, who ruled Serbia together with the former president Slobodan Milosevic, won 28.7% of the vote, making them the biggest party in the 250-seat parliament, with 81 seats.
Mr Ahtisaari in fact delayed publication of the Kosovo plan at the end of last year amid fears that his plans for provisional independence would boost the Radicals, whose election platform called for the use of force to block independence for Kosovo.
According to leaks, Kosovo will gain access to international institutions under the UN package, which will lead to eventual independence. The formula will be "independence with limits on sovereignty", amid concerns about the treatment of those Serbs who remain in Kosovo.
Mr Ahtisaari's plan will have to be discussed by Belgrade and Pristina. All the Serb parties oppose independence, with even the pro-western Democratic Party of Serbia, led by President Boris Tadic, calling for a delay to the UN plan.
"Some speedy move on Kosovo could make formation of a democratic government more difficult, and that is not in anyone's interest," said Bozidar Djelic, the party's candidate for prime minister. "These are delicate issues and we have to have full control over things such as the armed forces."
The plan will have to be approved by the UN security council, where the Serbs can count on their traditional ally Russia to drag its feet, even if that falls short of a veto.
Indeed, the Serbian prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, who is trying to put a coalition together, said he did not care what Mr Ahtisaari did because Serbia unanimously opposed independence for Kosovo and had Russia to back it up.
But Russia's position on Kosovo is ambiguous. There is an assumption that Moscow opposes Kosovan independence on the grounds that could set an undesirable precedent for secessionists in Chechnya. But Russia may also see Kosovo as a model for Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniestria - territories that Russia wants separated from Georgia and Moldova respectively.
The west's strongest card is the prospect of EU membership, which has encouraged reform in Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria. But, as Neil Clark points out, the Radicals' approach to the EU - that Serbia should join only when the time is right and on its own terms - is gaining ground.
Yet too much delay on independence may lead to renewed violence in Kosovo. Mr Ahtisaari, who delivered the surrender terms to Mr Milosevic in 1999, may well have to repeat history by telling Belgrade that it has no choice but to give up Kosovo and complete the break-up of what was once Yugoslavia.
