It's turned cold, and winter descends on our valley. It will be a different winter to last year, when the threat of COVID-19 kept us indoors, frightened to be honest, and we now know our fears were justified.
Effective public health measures and sensible, caring behaviour saved us from the suffering and death that have affected most countries around the world.
To our embarrassment, perhaps, Australia's death rate actually fell last winter, compared with the average of the previous five years.
This was because there were fewer deaths from respiratory diseases.
Not only did attention to washing our hands and covering our mouths muffle the COVID-19 virus, it stymied the spread of other respiratory viruses and bacterial infections.
Figures just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics tell us that deaths due to respiratory disease usually rise dramatically over the winter months.
My calculations - comparing deaths in July-August with those in January-February for the years 2015-2019 - show deaths from pneumonia, influenza, emphysema and chronic bronchitis usually rise by 77 per cent in winter.
But last year the much lower incidence of death from respiratory problems during the summer months persisted all year.
Will we see the usual elevated death rates from respiratory diseases return this winter? Yes, seems the obvious answer.
The way other categories of death are affected by winter is also telling. Australia's biggest killer in the 2015-19 period was cancer. But winter death rates for cancer rise only 8 per cent. Cancer is an all-year-round killer.
The second leading cause of death in the 2015-19 period was ischaemic heart disease, chiefly heart attacks and coronary artery disease. In winter, deaths in this category rise on average by 36 per cent. Last year, COVID-19 moderated this rise, slightly. The third leading cause of death is respiratory disease, as we discuss above.
Close on the heels of respiratory disease as a cause of death in the 2015-19 period was dementia. In winter, deaths in this category rise on average by 41 per cent, which seems surprisingly high for a disease that, to this layperson, seems unrelated to the seasons, like deaths due to cancer. Last year, also like cancer, there was no COVID-19 abatement to deaths from dementia.
Then follows deaths due to cerebrovascular disease, including strokes and cerebral aneurysms. Winter elevates death rates for this disease category by 26 per cent, and there was no COVID-19 suspension of this uplift.
Australia's biggest killer in 2015-19 was cancer. But winter death rates for cancer rise only 8 per cent. Cancer is an all-year-round killer.
Finally, on the ABS list, are deaths due to diabetes. This is a category of death which also rises in winter, by 33 per cent typically. And there was no respite in winter 2020 for diabetes sufferers.
Of course, the rolling marble that carries your name is more likely to fall off the table as you age. So while the death rate for all Australian age groups rises by 28 per cent in winter, the increase is only 11 per cent for those aged less than 45 years. But for those aged 85 years and above, the winter rate climbs by a hefty 38 per cent.
Clearly, winter is a threat to older folk with underlying health problems, just like COVID-19. One big difference is that winter isn't something you can get rid of through lockdowns, border closures and vaccinations.
All that said, the Hunter's winters have seasonal charm. It gets cold enough for woollen jumpers and scarves, for boots and beanies. There is different colour in our landscape, a charming mix of native and introduced trees.
The abatement of summer heat brings visitors to the valley. No doubt, with international travel abandoned, the Hunter's Wine and Food Festival next month will be a lively affair. Truncated daylight hours mean time for winter feasting and local wines, like shiraz, that fend off winter ills, surely.
And if you're lucky to have the option of working from home still, the morning alarm going off in the dark isn't nearly so daunting as when it means rugging up for the cold commute.
So winter can be pleasurable, fun even. But it can linger and wear us down. Apparently, Seasonal Affective Disorder, SAD, is a real thing now. Perhaps it's the winter blues of the old days.
Hopefully a sunny winter is in store this year, with time for lizarding on the back verandah with a morning cuppa.
