Can anyone other than Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce step up for the Chiefs offense?
Even in a down year, the Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce connection remains dynamite for the Kansas City Chiefs. Defenses still struggle to contain the duo, partly because for a handful of plays a game they have no idea what they’re going to do themselves.
It hasn’t always been a slick a production this season. The Chiefs offense has ebbed and flowed, with Kelce showing signs of his advancing (for a tight end) age. But when the team has needed the pair most, they’ve delivered. Kelce has been the second-most valuable tight end in the league on third down by EPA per play – and ranks first among the receivers who will be on the field on Sunday. One problem: Fred Warner. In Warner, the San Francisco 49ers have a part-pterodactyl, part-linebacker capable of matching up with Kelce’s size and speed. If Warner can contain Kelce – or the Niners opt to double-team the tight end – the Chiefs will have to find production from elsewhere. That could come from their run-game, which has been effective throughout the playoffs. But at some point, one of the Chiefs’ wide receivers will need to deliver in a crucial moment.
Rookie Rashee Rice has been a standout this season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has flashed in the postseason. The rest of the receiving corps, though, have vanished like werewolves around a pile of silver bullets. The Chiefs will need to match the Niners’ offense splash play for splash play. If Kelce is limited, they will need one of Rice or Valdes-Scantling to tip the game in their favor.
Will the Chiefs blitz Brock Purdy?
Purdy’s ability to diagnose and attack aggressive defenses has been an underrated part of the quarterback’s development. For all his schematic prowess, Kyle Shanahan’s offense does not cope well when blitzed. That’s partly what sunk Jimmy Garoppolo in big spots – and why Shanahan was keen to move towards an offense with Trey Lance that would feature the quarterback as a runner, limiting the blitz menu available to opposing defenses.
Purdy has avoided Garoppolo’s fate. In part, because he’s surrounded by a cast of excellent receiving options When a defense allocates extra defenders to the pass-rush, they’re left with fewer defenders in coverage. With Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel as weapons, Purdy is blessed with players capable of winning one-on-one, particularly when there are fewer opponents covering them. But Purdy has also been at his best when he’s forced to speed up his own internal clock – and has shown he can step outside the offense and create with his legs when need be.
Brock Purdy has been his most productive when blitzed, gaining a league-high +53.2 passing EPA against the blitz during the regular season.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 7, 2024
Purdy also led the NFL with 11 TDs on passes outside of the tackle box, 4 of which came against the Blitz (T-1st).#SuperBowlLVIII | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/aoYTksuP0l
That makes things tough for the NFL’s chief blitzologist: Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Asking Spagnuolo not to blitz is like handing the big red button to a kid. You can explain the consequences, you can outline that you’ll be be very, very mad, but, at some point, they’re pressing the damn thing.
Spagnuolo has an almost Pavlovian response to third-downs or high-leverage situations. Why send four pass-rushers when you can send five or six, or, better yet, just to be safe, send seven? And in a year where the coach is working with the best cornerback tandem in the league, he has felt emboldened to send heaps of pressure, safe in the knowledge that his corners can shut down opposing receivers.
Spagnuolo blitzed Lamar Jackson on more than 50% of the Ravens quarterback’s dropbacks during the AFC Championship Game. Lighting up Jackson is typically a no-no. He can avoid extra pressure with his arms or legs, or force a free-runner to miss before finding an open man downfield. Purdy isn’t quite as fleet-footed as Jackson, but he’s been just as effective this season at creating when pressured.
When and how Spagnuolo opts to send pressure will be key. Spagnuolo is famed for building a batch of one-off pressure plans tailored to each opponent’s pass protection rules. Every has different blocking mechanics, assigning different blockers to pick up a variety of defensive looks. Spagnuolou’s genius – and that’s not hyperbole – is intuiting those roles and devising a plan that plays off them. Through the alignment of his defense pre-snap, he forces the offense into a certain type of protection and then sends blitzes designed to expose that protection. Typically, sending pressure is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. Some coordinators roll the dice; Spagnuolo is counting cards.
Spagnuolo rarely sends pressure for the sake of it. There’s nuance to his all-gas, no-break style. The Chiefs coach digs through the minutiae, studying a quarterback’s individual tendencies versus the blitz to customize the Chiefs’ gameplan. But run through Purdy’s back catalogue and you’ll notice he’s been impervious to it all. All out pressure. Disguises. Creepers. Simulated pressures. Zone pressures. Fire zones. Every wonky coach-ism you hear about, Purdy has found a way to beat them.
The Niners’ quarterback has struggled most when opposing defenses swamp the field with defenders in coverage and he’s asked to pick it apart. But Spagnuolo does not have the patience to live in that world for four quarters. At some point, he’s pressing the button.
How will Tony Romo perform during the CBS broadcast?
It’s a big game for CBS’s $17m a year man. The highest-paid sports analyst in the United States has come under criticism for seeming, umm, unprepared during games over the past two seasons.
Early in his run as a broadcaster, Romo was an intelligent, if flawed communicator. He spotted and articulated things few others could in real time. He was widely viewed as the top broadcast analyst in the game. These days, he’s handed that mantle over to Fox’s Greg Olsen – who has none of the hyperactivity energy that infected Romo’s early work.
Listen to Olsen and – shock, horror – you learn something. Spending time with him is like hanging out with a charming buddy who also happens to also be the smartest guy in the bar. These days, Romo sounds every bit like the guy who beat you to the bar by two hours after shooting 18 at the links. He has sunk into cliche, and slogs his way through broadcasts on little more than vibes.
But here’s the thing: it’s time for a backlash to the backlash. Because listening to Romo, ultimately, is still fun. Sure, he’s giddy to the point of concern. Yes, he loves all the quarterbacks. He isn’t as scrubbed up on the details as the rest, yet Romo still has one inescapable quality: games feel big when he calls them.
During a mid-season snooze-fest between the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants, his style can grate. But in the biggest moments, he still rises to the occasion. So what if he marries off a team’s tight end midgame or claims a backup is a sneaky star? On big plays, he matches the I-can’t-believe-that-just-happened feeling that jolts through the veins of those at home.
With Tom Brady about to join the ranks of the network elites, Olsen will (probably) become the most sought-after free agent on the broadcasting market. CBS execs would be right to evaluate if Romo is worth the money if there’s an objectively better analyst out there at a cheaper rate. But Romo can reaffirm his place as the loveable, cringy uncle if he meets the moment on Sunday.
Andy Reid or Kyle Shanahan: which coach will bungle the clock?
Our two head coaches on Sunday are not famed for their clock management. Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan have had game-management problems throughout their careers. They burn needless timeouts, bungle late-game situations or stay in attack mode up 28-3 (sorry, Falcons fans).
Shanahan is under more pressure than Reid. He has a 7-3 record as an NFL head coach or play-caller when his team is up by 10 points in the fourth quarter; the rest of the league has a 58-3 record combined in such situations over the same span.
With Shanahan, we’re nit-picking. His teams are often ahead by 10 in the fourth because of his skills as a coach. But in close playoff games, he’s consistently overseen teams that have blown winning positions. If the Niners are to win, they’ll likely do so by jumping out to an early lead. KC’s offense has collapsed in the second-half of postseason games as defenses have clamped down on Kelce. If the Niners do enter the final quarter with the lead, Shanahan will need to go against type and be willing to run the ball to grind out a win.
Real Madrid's Santiago Bernabéu stadium [pictured] will stage a regular-season NFL game in 2025, it has been announced.
The fixture, between two teams yet to be named, will be the first NFL game to be held in Spain, adding Madrid to a list of European hosts including London, Munich and Frankfurt.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said: "Playing a game in Madrid in 2025 highlights the continued expansion of the league's global footprint and the accelerated ambitions to take our game to more fans around the world."
Reports in Spain say that either the Miami Dolphins or the Chicago Bears, both of whom have international marketing rights in the country, will play host to the Madrid fixture.
São Paolo will stage a game in 2024 at the Corinthians Arena, with the Philadelphia Eagles the designated home team. It will be the first NFL match played in South America; Mexico City and Toronto have also hosted games outside the US in recent years. PA Media
Will we see a trick play?
Trick plays have long been a part of Super Bowl folklore. The Philly Special. Randle El to Ward. The Saints’ surprise onside kick. When you have a tight contest, trying to steal a score or possession can be the difference – an onside kick; a fake punt; punching it in down in the red zone after being stone-walled for three downs.
Once derided as gimmicks, trick plays are now an essential part of postseason game-planning. Fun fact: Reid even dedicates one member of his staff to trawl through high school, international tape, and social media to find the whackiest most imaginative designs, including a film-sharing program with a space-age offense from Japan.
Given their concerns on offense, the Chiefs seem ripe to uncork something wonky on Sunday.
