Confidence and form are interesting commodities. Take for instance the West Coast Eagles in year two under Adam Simpson. They’ve played great footy based on two varying aspects of their game – their multitude of forward threats and a sensational defensive zone and have overcome injuries to key individuals and gained consistent output from lesser lights.
The question for all clubs that seemingly play beyond themselves is this: how to keep expectations internally and externally in check?
Contrast the Eagles’ new found fortunes with the bizarre season Port Adelaide has had to date. In 2013 and 2014, their emphatic and attacking style not only got results, but turned heads. Ken Hinkley was the toast of the football world, a man able to salvage a pathetic on-field showing and re-shape the Power into a tough opponent.
This season, for reasons from team cohesion to the tactical, they’ve failed to get going and seem likely to sit out September. Even though the Power are expected to rebound, they’ve found themselves well off the mark this year after much greater things were expected.
This is the lesson that Adam Simpson and the club need to heed not just in 2016, but heading into a finals campaign with their destiny in their own hands. Footy history is littered with sides that have failed to adjust not only their mindset and expectations, but actual ability to play as the hunted rather than the hunters.
Managing expectations requires an evaluation and breaking down of goals into the short, medium and long term.
In the short term, it’ll be week-to-week propositions inside the Eagles camp. How to negate the opposition? How to play to the team’s strengths? What to do preparation-wise to get it happening on game day?
With the medium term, things become trickier. Challengers who fall away often fail when trying to find solutions to these issues. How to get key players into fitness and form six to eight weeks from now? Who’s pushing for selection outside the team that may give an edge? What challenges are foreseen to game style? What will opponents throw up? In a year’s worth of opposition reports, what is there to highlight?
For instance, Essendon in 2000 were thrown a serious curveball when Terry Wallace’s Western Bulldogs short circuited their game plan with flooding in August. The Bombers prepared and practiced in case it showed up again. It didn’t, but they prepared themselves and were battle hardened.
Long term goals are a bit harder to nail down, but they’re more list management-related than the others. Who is coming in and out of their peak career form? Who needs to be replaced? Who needs to be contractually locked down?
These might be abstract and open-ended concepts, but if the job is viewed as never over and with a bigger picture, it’s easier not to get caught up in the momentum.
All these factors and moving parts are sometimes unappreciated by us, the fans. That’s not to say that those in their positions of authority automatically know better than Joe and Jane Blow, but perhaps a greater understanding and patience of the process is required.
With the way the fixture works now, one or two teams may dramatically improve but their ladder position might be overinflated. There is a serious risk of having the bubble burst and irreparably damaged if expectations aren’t managed correctly.
Just because the Eagles have had a great year does not mean the job is nearly done. If anything, the easy part is over.
The Hawks are still by far the team to beat, with the Dockers working towards a second wind. Both have one regular season game left against West Coast and will have them marked as a threat. These aren’t crosshairs to be taken lightly.
Daydreaming of a repeat of 2008 where the cocky upstarts ruined ‘unconquerable’ Geelong’s party is just as premature as suggesting the Hawks have their hands on the trophy already. Winners are able to be confident in their abilities, but have to fight buying into the hype. It’s separating the poison from the magic.
To drive a cliché further into the ground, there’s nowhere to hide in finals. It is the great leveller and the unworthy get found out. From here on is where the focus begins to narrow and only the strong willed and level headed survive.
