The favorites reign in the women’s NCAA tournament. Since 1994, the top three seeds in each region have lost only one game in the first round. Total. Just because the chalk wins, though, doesn’t mean picking the chalk is always right. When hundreds of thousands of brackets converge on the same top teams, it makes it harder for those same entries to separate from each other. Going against the grain in the right spots can be enough to differentiate from the pack.
So, the first step is identifying who the chalk actually is. ESPN publishes pick percentages for each matchup, which gives a snapshot of public sentiment and provides the basis for the numbers listed below.
Most common championship pick: UConn (46.0%)
The selection committee awarded the Huskies with the No. 1 overall seed, and the public has agreed with that decision. Only two other teams have been picked to win the championship more than 10% of the time: UCLA (13.2%) and South Carolina (12.4%). Is that split warranted? Probably. UConn outscored its opponents by 51.5 points per 100 possessions and looked like the most dominant team all season.
Chalkiest Cinderella team to reach the Sweet 16: Gonzaga (5.9%)
Anchoring bias may be at play here—Gonzaga is a brand name—but the 12-seed Bulldogs have interesting underlying metrics. They are a top-25 team in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and only the Huskies have a higher three-point shooting percentage among tournament teams. They also have Lauren Whittaker, who averaged 19.4 points and 10.0 rebounds per game and was named WCC player of the year as a freshman. Squint hard enough, and the Zags have a path, too. Ole Miss has struggled down the stretch. Minnesota, while solid, is only now making its first tournament appearance in nine years. There’s reason to believe … until one takes into account that the Rebels are getting healthy and the Golden Gophers will be hosting and have beaten Iowa and Ohio State this season.
Most-picked dark horse to reach the Final Four: Duke (9.1%)
One simple ground rule for who can and can’t be considered a dark horse: No two-seeds. The Blue Devils firmly put their early-season skid in the rearview mirror and closed the year by winning 21 of their final 23 games and won the ACC tournament. They did so convincingly, too, and had the third-best adjusted defensive efficiency of any team in the country during that stretch. The bracket isn’t doing Duke any favors, though. The Blue Devils will have to fend off the winner of the Baylor-Nebraska/Richmond showdown and LSU and UCLA to reach their first Final Four in 20 years.
That’s the big-picture view. Let’s take a more granular look at the data.
Who are the popular mid-major teams?
In terms of how often the public has chosen a team to win in the first round, Princeton (42.2%), South Dakota State (19.6%), Gonzaga (17.1%) and Rhode Island (12.4%) are the clear sweethearts. Notably, that list does not include Fairfield, which the public is choosing to advance less often than Colorado State, James Madison and Miami (Ohio).
Which teams should be on upset watch?
Setting aside the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchups, No. 10 Tennessee has been picked to beat No. 7 NC State in 42.1% of all brackets. Moving past the first round, the public is giving No. 3 Ohio State a 51.3% chance of beating No. 6 Notre Dame in the Round of 32—that’s the lowest higher-seed pick percentage across all three-seed vs. six-seed matchups. Out of any No. 2 seeds, Iowa appears in the Elite Eight the fewest number of times (54.2%).
Who is the public (over)confident in?
USC appears to be the biggest first-round darling among nine-seeds: 63.3% of brackets have the Trojans beating No. 8 Clemson, while no other No. 9 seed is above 42.2%. Seven-seed Georgia also has also been frequently favored by the public, with 84.4% of brackets advancing the Bulldogs in the first round and 10.6% sending them to the Sweet 16. As noted above, Notre Dame is the most popular No. 6 seed to pull a second-round upset over a No. 2. And among No. 2 seeds, LSU is the most common pick to reach the Final Four and win the national title.
The data in this article is current as of 7:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, March 17.
More March Madness from Sports Illustrated
- March Madness Rankings: Every Men’s NCAA Tournament Team From 1 to 68
- Texas vs. NC State Prediction, Odds, Key Player to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Four
- March Madness: Five Teams to Avoid in Your Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracket
- How Many Teams Did Each Conference Land in 2026 March Madness Field?
- Aden Holloway Arrested, Not With Team Ahead of Alabama’s NCAA Tournament Game
This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Chalkiest Teams in the Women’s March Madness Bracket.
