Decisions, decisions, decisions.
The Carolina Panthers have more than 20 players with expiring contracts this year, including some who become restricted free agents.
Among the two biggest names on that list are right tackle Taylor Moton and wide receiver Curtis Samuel, both of whose rookie deals are coming to an end this offseason.
Keeping both players for reasonable prices would be an ideal situation, but that’s also a dream world. Moton will be looking for a big-time contract and Samuel, 24, is having his best season yet and will desirable to many teams who can take advantage of his variety of skill sets.
“It would definitely be difficult to retain both of them, with the cap situation being what it is,” Panthers’ director of player negotiations and salary cap manager Samir Suleiman said on Panthers.com. The salary cap is expected to decrease this offseason to somewhere around $175 million, which will limit what teams can offer.
What does that mean for Samuel?
He will be in a crowded free agent wide receiver class. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Will Fuller, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Corey Davis, T.Y. Hilton, Sammy Watkins and A.J. Green are among the names with expiring contracts in 2021.
But Samuel has also shown his dependability in his fourth year in Carolina. Let’s break down the pros and cons.
Finding the right way to use the 2017 second-round pick out of Ohio State has always been a challenge during his four years in Carolina, but offensive coordinator Joe Brady has created a variety of ways to get him involved, including plenty of jet sweeps, and head coach Matt Rhule has also often pointed to Samuel as an example for other players.
“He doesn’t say very much, doesn’t complain, doesn’t make excuses; he’s just got a tough mindset. And he does whatever needs to be done. You can coach him. If he says something to me, I listen. I have a lot of respect for him,” Rhule said last month. “He’s so versatile, to be able ... to have someone who can run and catch and get open and block, to do it at his level might be rare, and it’s a lot of credit to him.“
This year, Samuel has 61 receptions on 72 targets for 585 yards and three receiving touchdowns. 30 receiving first downs have come from those receptions and his catch percentage is 84.7% — far higher than any previous year of his career (his three-season average coming into this year was 55.1%) and fifth-highest in the NFL.
Does it help that Teddy Bridgewater is a more accurate quarterback than others who Samuel has played with? Sure, he’s completing 70.7% of his passes, second in the league behind Drew Brees. Not among Cam Newton’s best qualities is being accurate with the football, but Samuel has also proven to be reliable for Bridgewater. Samuel only has two drops this year, per Pro Football Reference.
Samuel has the third-most third down receptions in the NFL this year with 25 on 28 targets (89.3%). No player with 10 or more third-down receptions has a higher catch percentage on the down. From those catches, he has 282 receiving yards and one touchdown. Seventeen of 25 catches have resulted in first downs.
The former running back has also had more success on the ground than in years past. He has a career-high 139 rushing yards, along with two rushing touchdowns and nine rushing first downs.
The Panthers have found valuable ways to use him and his absence was notable in the game he missed. Coaches have also pointed to his ability to block and fill a variety of roles.
“I think Curtis has been huge from any type of success we’ve had ... I think so much of what Curtis does, doesn’t necessarily show up in the stat book and I think that shows the type of player he is. You see explosive runs from Mike Davis and you see Curtis making huge blocks,” Brady said. “He’s such a dynamic weapon that he’s willing to just do anything to win and help the team.”
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CONS TO THE PANTHERS RE-SIGNING CURTIS SAMUEL
Just how much money will Samuel need to stay? He is the Panthers’ third wide receiver and this is a team with a variety of spots to fill at important positions. If you have to pick between Samuel and Moton, reliable and good right tackles can be hard to find.
The list of free agent wide receivers is long and deep, as listed above. That could help lower the price for Samuel, who would be a good piece in any offense. He’s not going to go and be a No. 1 wide receiver, but Brady has shown there are many ways to use him.
He has averaged 9.6 yards per reception this year, down from 12.7 in 2018 and 11.6 in 2019.
Spotrac estimates a contract extension for Samuel could be in the $11 million a year range, or almost $48 million for a four-year contract. For comparison, Smith-Schuster is expected to get $15.5 million per year, while Watkins is projected to get $9.7 million.
It’s hard to compare him to just one receiver, however, because there isn’t a player whose skill set exactly matches his. Samuel is the only wide receiver in the NFL with more than 130 rushing yards and 500-plus receiving yards. Recent players who have similar production on the ground in recent years and received new contracts, such as Rams wide receiver Robert Woods, have been more productive on the receiving end.
It also takes the right offensive coordinator to help Samuel find a role that makes sense. In the first three years of his career, finding the right role for him never seemed to happen. Will Brady be with the Panthers forever? No, eventually someone will likely offer him a head coaching job.
Making sure that the wide receiver has a defined role in whatever offense the Panthers will be running in 2021 and the years to come is a key to offering Samuel a new contract. Solid wide receivers can be found in the draft, and it might make sense for money to be spent elsewhere.
It will come down to the price and how much Samuel can get. He’s valuable to this offense, but the Panthers are a team with plenty of needs building for the long-term.
