If you go strictly by record and homefield advantage, San Francisco, Baltimore, Kansas City and Green Bay should be the winners of this weekend’s playoff games. But there is no such thing as a given in the postseason. Especially in the divisional round.
History has shown that upsets – including some very big ones – often take place in the divisional round. That’s why it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Minnesota, Tennessee, Houston or Seattle pulls off an upset this week.
Divisional round upsets have taken place before and they’ll take place again. Let’s take a look at the nine biggest upsets in divisional round history:
1985: Patriots 27, Raiders 20
This was a historic season for the Patriots. They became the first team in history to make it to the Super Bowl by winning three straight road games. The victory in Los Angeles was especially big because the Raiders had gone 12-4 and appeared to be one of the league’s dominant teams. The Patriots also won at Miami the following week, but got crushed in the Super Bowl by the Chicago Bears.
2007: Chargers 28, Colts 24
The Chargers had to finish the game without injured quarterback Philip Rivers and running back LaDainian Tomlinson. They had gone 11-5 in the regular season and the Colts, led by Peyton Manning, had gone 13-3 and were the defending Super Bowl champions. San Diego’s defense was the key. The Chargers shut down to Colts’ fourth-quarter drives on fourth down. Give yourself 10 bonus points if you know that Billy Volek stepped in for the injured Rivers.
1979: Rams 21, Cowboys 19
This game looked like a piece of cake for Dallas. The Cowboys had beaten the Rams, 30-6, during the regular season. Dallas also had defeated Los Angeles, 28-0, in the previous year’s conference title game. But it didn’t turn out that way. Los Angeles quarterback Vince Ferragamo threw three touchdown passes, including the game winner with 2:06 remaining. This also turned out to be the last game of the career of Dallas quarterback Roger Staubach.
2008: Eagles 23, Giants 11
The Eagles went 9-6-1 in the regular season and held the NFC’s No. 6 seed. The Giants were the top seed, the defending champions and playing at home on a 20-degree day. Philadelphia’s defense stepped up and forced three turnovers and kicker David Akers made three field goals.
2010: Jets 28, Patriots 21
During the regular season, the 14-2 Patriots had crushed the 11-5 Jets, 45-3, in a nationally-televised game. More of the same was expected in the divisional round even though the Jets were national stars after appearing on “Hard Knocks’’ in the preseason and coach Rex Ryan had guaranteed a Super Bowl win. But the Jets pulled the upset as quarterback Mark Sanchez threw for three touchdowns and New York’s defense sacked New England’s Tom Brady five times.
2008: Cardinals 33, Panthers 13
The Cardinals went 2-4 to close the season and limped into the playoffs at 9-7. They beat the Falcons in the wild-card round. But most thought their season would end there because Carolina had gone 12-4 and was viewed as a strong Super Bowl candidate. But the Cardinals played, led by Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald, played up to their slogan for the season (“Shock The World’’) and knocked off the Panthers. They went on to lose the Super Bowl to the Steelers.
1987: Vikings 36, 49ers 24
A lot of people think Joe Montana never had a bad game. Obviously, that can’t be true and this game was the strongest evidence. In a game at Candlestick Park, Minnesota intercepted Montana four times and he was benched in favor of Steve Young. The Vikings were led by Anthony Carter’s 227 receiving yards and went on to lose to the Redskins in the NFC Championship Game.
1995: Colts 10, Chiefs 7
The Colts, led by quarterback Jim Harbaugh, had to win their last five games just to get into the playoffs at 9-7. The Chiefs had gone 13-3 and were the top seed in the AFC. This was supposed to be an easy win for Kansas City, but it didn’t turn out that way. The Colts intercepted Steve Bono three times in the second half and Kansas City kicker Lin Elliott missed three field-goal attempts.
1996: Jaguars 30, Broncos 27
The Jaguars had come into the league as an expansion team the year before and had surprised most by going 9-7 in the regular season. The Broncos, led by John Elway, went 13-3 in the regular season and were viewed as a strong Super Bowl candidate. But after jumping out to a 12-0 lead, the Broncos faltered and Jacksonville scored 23 straight points. Mark Brunell threw for 245 yards and two touchdowns and Natrone Means rushed for 140 yards as the Jaguars advanced to the AFC Championship Game before losing to New England.
Pat Yasinskas has covered the NFL since 1993. He has worked for The Tampa Tribune, The Charlotte Observer and ESPN.com and writes for numerous national magazines and websites. He also has served as a voter for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
