With the new league year turning over on March 18, and the draft a little more than a month after that starting April 23, each NFL team is about to start a series of prime positions to improve their rosters as much as their front offices and salary cap situations will allow.
With that in mind, here’s the primary need for every NFL franchise heading into the busiest part of the offseason. (All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions).
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Another quality receiver
Last season, John Brown might have been the NFL’s most underrated receiver. The former Cardinals and Ravens target signed a three-year, $27 million contract with the Bills before the 2019 season and became an immediate staple for quarterback Josh Allen, with 72 catches on 115 targets for 1,060 yards and six touchdowns — all career highs. Slot receiver Cole Beasley is also entrenched well in that role, but if Allen is to take the proverbial next step — and that’s still a question — the Bills will need another productive outside receiver, especially in the deep passing game. Brown was targeted 27 times on passes of 20 or more air yards last season, catching 10 of those passes for 332 yards and four touchdowns. The rest of Buffalo’s receiver corps was targeted 27 times on deep throws, catching three passes for 117 yards and no touchdowns. Allen’s erratic passes had something to do with that, but it would certainly help to add another credible deep threat.
Miami Dolphins: A functional offensive line
After major trades with the Steelers and Texans, the Dolphins have three first-round picks (the fifth, 18th, and 26th), and the clout to trade up if they want to. One thing they must do is to improve a run game that was so inept after trading Kenyan Drake to the Cardinals in October, 37-year-old quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing — with 243 yards. Ouch. Paramount to getting that ground game going will be the necessary addition of several quality offensive linemen.
Left tackle Julie’n Davenport, acquired in the trade of left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Kenny Stills to Houston, allowed six sacks and 31 total pressures on just 389 pass-blocking snaps. Swing tackle J’Marcus Webb gave up seven sacks and 39 total pressures on 372 pass-blocking snaps. Nobody was immune from this O-line disaster, and it’s reasonable to say that if Miami had four or five new starters up front, it’d be for the best. That’s not great for continuity, which is generally important for an offensive line, but this is not the kind of continuity one wants. The Doophins have all these value picks and $88,075,174 in current cap space; here’s where they should spend a lot of that capital.
New England Patriots: A replacement for the greatest quarterback in NFL history
We don’t yet know what is in Tom Brady’s future. After 20 years with the Patriots, during which time he picked up six Super Bowl rings and established himself as perhaps the greatest quarterback ever, Brady might be on the move for the first time in his NFL career. What really makes this interesting is that if Brady does move on as a free agent, it leaves Bill Belichick with options he hasn’t ever had at the position. The expansion of college concepts into the NFL, and the sea changes in the requirements for the quarterback position at the NFL level, has to have Belichick wondering what he could do with the next Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, or Lamar Jackson.
Belichick gave the Texans a little taste of that concept back in 2016, when Brady was suspended for the first four games of the season over the DeflateGate scandal, then-backup Jimmy Garoppolo got injured, and the Patriots put then-backup Jacoby Brissett on the field against Houston in Week 3 as an option quarterback. The Texans had very little idea what to do with that in a 27-0 loss, and you know Belichick has stored that away in his brain just like everything else that’s happened in pro football over the last 60 years. What would the Pats’ offense look like with the kind of quarterback they’ve never had before? A positive answer to that question might just ease the sting of a possible Brady departure.
New York Jets: A new offensive line
Second-year Jets quarterback Sam Darnold showed improvement in most aspects in 2019, despite a bout with mononucleosis, a relative lack of top-end targets and protection up front that wouldn’t pass muster among most SEC teams. The 2019 Jets allowed 24 sacks and 188 total pressures on just 584 passing snaps, and while Darnold performed fairly well under pressure (10 of his 19 touchdowns and eight of his 13 picks came when rushed from the pocket), Options B and C in the persons of Luke Falk and Trevor Siemian last season proved that the Jets’ offense will go only as far as Darnold can take it. To that end, new general manager Joe Douglas, a highly-respected personnel man around the league, needs to do a lot about that offensive line. Upgrading from left tackle Brandon Shell (seven sacks and 42 pressures allowed) and swing tackle Chuma Edoga (six sacks and 22 pressures allowed on just 270 pass-blocking snaps) would be a good start, but honestly, Douglas could go full Roto-Rooter on this line and possibly land better results.
Which, based on what Douglas said at the scouting combine, could easily happen.
“Look, you guys know how I feel about the offensive line. It’s hard to have a good team without one. Right now, as it stands, we only have one opening-day starter coming back under contract: [Guard] Brian Winters. Everyone else is an unrestricted free agent. We’re at 21 UFAs [unrestricted free agents] and three RFAs [restricted free agents]. So we have to improve not only offensive line by many other positions.”
True, but the offensive line is the place to start.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Edge pressure without blitzing
The acquisitions of safety Earl Thomas and cornerback Marcus Peters turned Baltimore’s defense from good to great in 2019, and along with the NFL’s most effective rushing attack and Lamar Jackson’s continued development, has the Ravens on a potential championship track. But there’s one way in which a franchise that has generally been known for awesome defense could take things to the next level, and that’s the ability to get to the quarterback without bringing extra defenders. The Ravens brought the blitz on 54.9% of their defensive snaps last season, which was by far the most in the NFL — the Buccaneers finished second at 43.4%, and while the 2018 Ravens also led the league in blitz percentage, they did so at a 39.6% rate. Generally, when you blitz that often, it’s because you don’t have a bunch of defenders who can bring pressure without it. That was the case for the Ravens in 2019 — edge defender Matt Judon (who’s scheduled to be a free agent in 2020) led the team with 62 total pressures; rookie end Jaylon Ferguson finished second with 30. Either somebody on the roster is going to have to step up, or more pass-rushing talent will be needed to break away from what could be an unsustainable defensive paradigm.
Cincinnati Bengals: Help all along the secondary
We’re going to assume the Bengals will take care of their quarterback problems by trading Andy Dalton away for whatever they can get, and selecting Joe Burrow with the first overall pick. The next step is to redefine a secondary that was bereft of talent when it wasn’t plagued by injuries. Both Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard missed serious time last season, which didn’t help the cornerback group. Dennard is an upcoming free agent. Second-year cornerback Darius Phillips showed potential last season, but more needs to be done. Safety Jessie Bates, who looked like a breakout star after his rookie year in 2018, fell off in Lou Anarumo’s defense, which was another part of the problem. Everyone needs to get on the same page here, beyond the need for a talent infusion.
Cleveland Browns: Stability at offensive tackle
Not that the Browns were going to bring back left tackle Greg Robinson after a sub-par season, but Robinson’s February marijuana arrest put the last pin in that idea. Chris Hubbard, Cleveland’s primary right tackle, skewed up and down in his second season with the Browns. And after one of the most disappointing distributions of results to talent any team has had in recent years, the Browns — and new head coach Kevin Stefanski — will need reliable bookends for Baker Mayfield and his targets, as well as running back Nick Chubb, who may be the NFL’s most underrated player at his position. Given Stefanski’s history with the Vikings, and their zone-running, boot-action offense, the more mobile those tackles are, the better. Cleveland has $68,129,940 in current cap space, so it’s reasonable to expect the team to start filling those holes in free agency and continue to do so in the draft.
Pittsburgh Steelers: A future franchise quarterback
So, that’s good news for the Steelers and their franchise quarterback for the 2020 season; Roethlisberger missed all but 95 snaps last season with an elbow injury, and it took a miraculous coaching job from Mike Tomlin and his staff, not to mention a trade with the Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick, to keep Pittsburgh in contention. Mason Rudolph and Devlin “Duck” Hodges had their moments in relief of Roethlisberger last season, but a quarterback battery that combines for 18 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in 14 starts won’t get you anywhere beyond .500, no matter how good your coaches are. Roethlisberger turned 38 on March 2, he’s a free agent after the 2021 season, and while a $33.5 million cap hit in 2020 and a $31.5 million cap hit in 2021 isn’t that bad if Big Ben can play at his previous level, we may be talking about the beginning of the end here. As the Steelers rebuild in the post-Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown era, a more functional question looms — who will be their quarterback when all the building is done?
AFC South
Houston Texans: A secondary that works
In the 2019 regular season, the Texans played man coverage on 37% of their defensive snaps, which ranked seventh overall in the league. Which made the decision to play man coverage almost exclusively against the Chiefs in the divisional round of the playoffs. Blowing a 24-0 lead and allowing 41 straight unanswered points in an eventual 51-31 loss got defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel out of the picture in that position, but it’s not as if Crennel had a lot to work with.
Lonnie Johnson Jr. was the most obvious problem in the secondary, allowing nine touchdowns with no interceptions and a 133.5 opponent passer rating. Vernon Hargreaves III gave up five touchdowns to one pick and an opponent passer rating of 112.1. Gareon Conley allowed six touchdowns to one pick and an opponent passer rating of 93.2. And on and on. The Texans do have some talent in their secondary, most notably cornerback Bradley Roby and safety Justin Reid, but the lack of scheme-to-personnel wisdom set this defense back in 2019, and it’ll have to change with a quickness under new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver.
Indianapolis Colts: A quarterback who’s better than average
Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement last August left the Colts in a pickle. Expected to compete at a high level with their franchise quarterback guiding a team adeptly constructed by general manager Chris Ballard and expertly coached by Frank Reich and his staff, Indy was left with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who they knew from his 2017 season spelling the injured Luck. Sometimes it worked; sometimes it didn’t. Brissett completed 60.9% of his passes for 2,942 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions — not bad numbers, but the Colts’ passing game was almost completely missing the explosive plays needed to wrestle with the NFL’s best defenses. A 7-9 record isn’t good enough for the Colts, and Brissett may not be, either.
“Jacoby did some good things … but our passing game has to improve, unequivocally,” Ballard said at the end of the season. “The jury is still out.”
“When I talked to him the other day, we really didn’t go there,” head coach Frank Reich said at the combine of Brissett’s unsure status. “Every player in this league knows. There’s very few players in this league that have the luxury of saying ‘I’m a lock. 24-7. I don’t have to worry about job security.’ That’s a luxury in this league that not many people have. We don’t talk about that stuff. It’s the unwritten, unspoken truth that we all know exists. You’re a man about it, you welcome the competition, let’s get better.”
Generally speaking, when a GM says the jury is still out on a quarterback, the jury has already come back with a unanimous verdict. So watch for the Colts to take their scads of cap space (only the Dolphins have more going into the 2020 offseason) and address this with certainty. They may have run out of Luck last year, but the Colts are in no way a falling or failing team.
Jacksonville Jaguars: A new set of franchise cornerbacks
When the Jaguars traded A.J. Bouye to the Broncos for a fourth-round pick last week in part to get Bouye’s $13,437,500 cap number off the books for 2020, it was yet another hit to a defense that looked like one of the NFL’s best a couple of seasons ago. Trading Jalen Ramsey to the Rams last October for a wealth of draft capital, including first-round picks in the 2020 and 2021 drafts, was the biggest move, but both transactions leave the Jags without their formerly formidable outside cornerback group. Tre Herndon and D.J. Hayden were decent stopgaps last season, but for a franchise that looked like it had the next Legion of Boom at the end of the 2017 season, this talent shortage leaves a lot of unanswered questions — or perhaps specifically answered questions — about Tom Coughlin’s tenure at the top. Now, the Jaguars have to rebuild that secondary. They have the picks to do it, especially in a draft rich with talent at those positions. And with their current cap space just over $32 million, there’s enough to make a bit of a splash in free agency.
Tennessee Titans: A franchise-defining edge-rusher
As PFF pointed out, the Titans had nine players with 100 or more pass-rushing snaps this season. The only one with a pressure rate above 10% was Cameron Wake, who is now 38 years old. Harold Landry almost hit the 10% mark with 63 pressures in 639 pass-rushing snaps, and the arrow is pointing up there. And we all know that multi-gap lineman Jurrell Casey can be highly effective when he’s fully healthy. But if the Titans are to hit a next level on defense, especially after the retirement of brilliant defensive coordinator Dean Pees, they’ll have to figure their edge situation out for the future.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: A new bookend for Courtland Sutton
Since Peyton Manning’s retirement, John Elway has struck out several times when trying to acquire the Broncos’ next franchise quarterback. 2019 rookie Drew Lock may be the answer Elway has long sought — he certainly had some credible moments last season — but Lock will need more help from his receiver corps. Last season, Courtland Sutton was pretty much the only answer at the position, catching 72 passes on 114 targets for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns. After that? Emmanuel Sanders with 30 catches on 44 targets for 367 yards and two touchdowns before he was traded to the 49ers in late October. Sutton also saw a disproportionate percentage of Denver’s deep targets last season — 24 to the 16 for every other receiver, running back, or tight end on the roster — and that’s just not acceptable when you have a quarterback with the vertical potential Lock possesses. Whether in the draft or in free agency — or using both — the Broncos must improve their prospects at the position to bring the most out of Lock.
Kansas City Chiefs: A fluid linebacker to complete their defense
Last season, as new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo got his schemes aligned with his players and super-safety Tyrann Mathieu started playing at a Defensive Player of the Year pace, the Chiefs’ defense turned from a liability to a relative strength. That played into their Super Bowl win, and this defense could be even better with a few more parts. Cornerback depth would be nice, but the primary component for a defense that doesn’t blitz very often (last season, Kansas City brought three or four defenders to pressure the quarterback on 70% of their snaps) would be a linebacker or two who can jump into coverage with consistency. There’s no doubting Reggie Ragland as a leader — that came up over and over when talking to Chiefs players and coaches during Super Bowl week — but that’s not really Ragland’s game. And when you also consider that Spagnuolo had six or more defensive backs on the field 33% of the time last season (the sixth-highest percentage in the NFL), imagine what a true 360-degree, run-and-chase, coverage ‘backer could add to what the defending champs already have.
Las Vegas Raiders: A new back seven
If you want to know how bad the Raiders’ linebacker situation was last season… well, here’s Josh Dubow of the Associated Press on the recently released Tahir Whitehead:
Relying on Vontaze Burfict? Not a great idea. Will Compton and Nicholas Morrow weren’t much better on the field. At safety, Karl Joseph, Curtis Riley, and Erik Harris were all vulnerable in coverage, and the cornerback position was just as fraught outside of second-round rookie Trayvon Mullen. First-round safety Johnathan Abram will be a major addition when he returns from the torn rotator cuff that cost him most of his rookie season, but Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have a ton of work to do here. The Raiders’ brain trust had a sneaky great draft in 2019, but they’ll need to do it again both in the draft and free agency if they’re to challenge the Chiefs for the AFC West.
Los Angeles Chargers: A quarterback for the future
The Chargers recently announced their intention to move on from Philip Rivers, which means that for the first time since Rivers and Drew Brees were fighting it out for the starting job in the mid-2000s, there is uncertainty at the most important position for this franchise. One could say that there was a lot of uncertainty at the position last season when Rivers threw 20 interceptions last season, including a league-leading six with less than 2:00 minutes left in the fourth quarter of games. That said, Rivers had been the franchise cornerstone since he made Brees redundant in 2006, and that’s a lot to replace. Right now, the Chargers’ quarterback depth chart has Tyrod Taylor and Easton Stick, which will be interesting in the preseason. For the Chargers to improve on a highly disappointing 5-11 season, they’ll need some surety there, and with a quickness.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: A wizard capologist
At the end of their Super Bowl era in the 1990s, the Cowboys managed to add Deion Sanders to a team that already had the offensive Triplets in Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin. If they’re to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since that era under new head coach Mike McCarthy, a lot has to happen, and three impending free-agent transactions would be aimed at regenerating Dallas’ current Triplets, and keeping its best cornerback.
Specifically, the Cowboys are on the hook to re-sign Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper to the already re-signed Ezekiel Elliott to maintain things on that side of the ball. And cornerback Byron Jones, another soon-to-be free agent, has an estimated contract value of $14.1 million per year per Spotrac’s calculations. Jerry Jones and his front office recently extended an offer to Prescott that lands in the $33 million per year category, and while Cooper has said that he wants to be a “Cowboy for life,” this is all easier said than done. Dallas currently has $76,562,123 in cap space per OverTheCap.com, so there’s room to transact, but there are a lot of moving parts here, even with the option to hand out both franchise and transition tags to the team’s best players if need be.
New York Giants: A hog molly on the edge for Dave Gettleman
Dave Gettleman has been the Giants’ general manager since 2018, and it’s been a busy time. The capricious GM was last seen at the scouting combine raising questions about the starting position of quarterback Daniel Jones for whatever reason, and there’s a certain amount of background noise one has to accept when Gettleman’s in charge, but one thing the Giants are going to need to improve upon 2019’s 4-12 record is a better brand of “Hog Mollies,” Gettleman’s preferred term for those big guys in either side of the line who make a real difference game-to-game. The primary concern on the offensive side of the ball has to be left tackle Nate Solder, who allowed 11 sacks and 57 total pressures. Add in Solder’s five penalties, and that four year, $62 million contract Solder signed with the Giants in March, 2018 starts to look like a real albatross. The Giants can’t get any real relief from Solder’s deal until 2021, and concussion issues no doubt complicated Solder’s 2019 season, but whoever Gettleman wants playing quarterback for the Giants in 2020 and beyond will need better protection than this.
Philadelphia Eagles: As many receivers as possible
By the time the Eagles limped into the playoffs after winning an NFC East that was ripe for the picking, their receiver corps was down to Greg Ward and Deontay Burnett, with running backs Boston Scott and Miles Sanders, and tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, picking up the slack. Injuries to DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor, Alshon Jeffery, and just about everyone else playing the receiver position greatly impacted Philly’s offense through the 2019 season. Going into 2020, Agholor is a free agent unlikely to return, and while Jackson and Jeffrey would be great if they can stay healthy, Jeffery is 29 years old, and Jackson is 33. Neither veteran is in a position to cut in 2020, given their potential dead cap numbers, but now is the time for general manager Howie Roseman and head coach Doug Pederson to start thinking about the future at the position. Another season this thin at receiver would be unsustainable for anybody.
Washington Redskins: More cornerbacks, and the ability to keep their one good one
Through eight weeks of the 2019 season, there were two cornerbacks with three interceptions and an opponent passer rating allowed of 37.9. One was Richard Sherman, who you may have heard of. The other is Quinton Dunbar, an undrafted receiver out of Florida who started playing cornerback in his rookie season of 2015. At the end of his Super Bowl season, Sherman had 31 receptions allowed on 64 targets for 373 yards, one touchdown, five interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 45.3. At the end of his 2019 season that ended with a 3-13 record, Dunbar had 29 catches allowed on 52 targets for 344 yards, two touchdowns, four interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 56.9. Dunbar was also the only quality pass defender in Washington’s secondary, which tends to complicate things.
So, of course, the Redskins are now playing hardball with Dunbar, whose three-year, $10.5 million contract signed in 2018 has to register as one of the NFL’s biggest bargains. That dysfunction aside, new head coach Ron Rivera needs help all over his defense, and new defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio might be begging the front office to get something done with Dunbar sooner than later. And with Josh Norman now out of the picture (and signed by the Bills), there’s more of a need than ever for a secondary that works in the nation’s capital. Montae Nicholson is an asset at safety, and Landon Collins is good enough in the box, but the Redskins desperately need intermediate and deep coverage options — and they need to treat their one top cornerback with a bit more respect.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Someone to get them over Mitchell Trubisky
When the Rams gave Jared Goff a four-year contract extension last September worth $134 million in new money over four years, I made the argument that when you have a quarterback who has not proven that he can transcend scheme, you may want to avoid making him your franchise quarterback in a financial sense. That said, Goff has done more than Mitchell Trubisky throughout his career, and Trubisky — who finished 28th in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted, season-cumulative efficiency metrics last season — now leaves the Bears with a number of interesting decisions.
Chicago has until May to pick up Trubisky’s fifth-year option, and they’ve gone all-in on the former second overall pick’s potential with a group of new coaches (Bill Lazor as the new offensive coordinator, John DeFilippo as the quarterbacks coach, and former quarterbacks coach Dave Ragone promoted to passing game coordinator) along with head coach and offensive shot-caller Matt Nagy to make the most out of whatever Trubisky is. So far, Trubisky has been a quarterback slow to read defenses and to execute his own offense. When you have a great defense and a short window with which to win with it, losing that battle at the altar of a middling quarterback is a fool’s errand. The Bears have been dealing with that particular paradigm for decades; you’d think they’d figure it out sooner than later.
Detroit Lions: A quality secondary they’ll actually keep
Lions head coach and Ostensible Defensive Genius Matt Patricia has spoken a lot about creating a culture during his two full seasons as Detroit’s head coach, during which he’s compiled a 9-22-1 record. Patricia has aspired to have the right kind of pass defense, which in Patricia’s case involves playing more man coverage than any other team in the league last season (54% of all defensive snaps, just ahead of the Patriots), and dumping the guys who can help him do that effectively. Trading safety Quandre Diggs to the Seahawks mid-season did nothing more than drop Detroit’s pass defense from 23rd to 31st in the second half of the season in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics, and annoy all of Diggs’ former teammates.
Now, aforementioned cornerback Darius Slay, the team’s best remaining coverage defender, is on the trade block as well.
Slay is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2020 season; it’s quite possible that if Patricia doesn’t get back some semblance of consistency in his defense, he might be on the block, too.
Green Bay Packers: Help for Davante Adams
Last season was Aaron Rodgers’ first under a head coach not named Mike McCarthy, unless you want to count Joe Philbin’s four-game interim stretch at the end of the 2018 season, which Rodgers probably doens’t. But with new head coach Matt LaFleur on board, the Packers experienced a rebirth in their run game, schematic diversity, and overall balance. It took Rodgers a bit of time to get on pace with the structure, but given his 26-touchdown, four-interception performance in 2019, it’s safe to say Rodgers still has enough left in the tank.
What Rodgers doesn’t have is a receiver to provide a complementary force to Davante Adams, one of the league’s best targets. Last season, Adams caught 83 passes on 127 targets for 997 yards and five touchdowns. Not groundbreaking stuff, but a long way from any other receiver on LaFleur’s roster. Running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams finished second and third in receptions, and tight end Jimmy Graham (who is not expected back with the team) finished fourth. Allen Lazard finished second among actual receivers with 35 catches on 52 targets for 477 yards and three touchdowns. That the team was able to go 13-3 without a complete receiver corps, and a future Hall of Fame quarterback getting used to a new system, makes one wonder what’s possible in 2020.
Minnesota Vikings: Boundary cornerbacks
Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer has been one of the NFL’s best defensive minds for a very long time, and given his history of teaching cornerbacks to be great, it must have been incredibly frustrating for Zimmer to watch Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes, his two primary boundary cornerbacks, allow 129 receptions on 169 targets for 1,498 yards, 10 touchdowns (five each), and one interception (Waynes). Waynes is an upcoming free agent; at the scouting combine, Zimmer said that Waynes is “a great kid — works hard, very good tackler. He’s got great speed. I hope none of the guys are as good when we draft them as when they leave. I hope they all get better with coaching and intelligence and things like that. But Trae’s a great guy; we hope to get him back and we’ll see what happens.”
What also happens in 2020 is that Rhodes presents a $12.9 million cap hit in 2020, and he hasn’t been an above-average cornerback since about 2017. Mackensie Alexander, primarily the team’s slot defender, is a free agent in 2020, so Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman have that to deal with — not to mention the fact that safety Anthony Harris is also set to test free agency — and will get a king’s ransom when he does so. Zimmer’s secondary is about to become quite different, whether he likes it or not.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: An entirely new secondary
Last season, the Falcons’ cornerbacks and safeties allowed 18 passing touchdowns and intercepted nine passes. Of the corners who played at least 20% of Atlanta’s defensive snaps, Blidi Wreh-Wilson, Kendall Sheffield, Isaiah Oliver, and Jamar Taylor combined for no interceptions and seven touchdowns allowed. Desmond Trufant led all Falcons defenders with four picks, but he also allowed five touchdowns, 23 catches on 34 targets for 390 yards, and an team-high opponent passer rating allowed of 106.3. Things did turn around in the second half of the season when head coach Dan Quinn put Raheem Morris in charge of the secondary, and Morris is now the team’s defensive coordinator, but if the Falcons want to anywhere near the postseason again, several upgrades in the secondary would be a must.
Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton’s successor
At the 2020 scouting combine, new Panthers head coach Matt Rhule said all the right things about Cam Newton, who missed all but two games last year to injury, and saw a dip in effectiveness late in 2018 related to other injuries.
“From my perspective, I am unbelievably excited to get a chance to work with Cam,” Rhule said. “You come in from the outside, you kind of know as just a fan, but just on a personal note getting to know him, he is a diligent guy. He’s working so hard, both in Atlanta and in Carolina, to get himself healthy.”
That’s all well and good if Newton can come back healthy, but although he’s just turned 30, Newton has taken more of his share of hits over the years, and they appear to be adding up. The Panthers have an interesting decision to make with Newton in that he’s in the last year of his current contract, he’d account for $21.1 million of the team’s 2020 cap, and there’s a $19.1 million cap savings if he’s released.
Regardless of Newton’s immediate future, the Panthers need to get their long-term quarterback situation sorted out. Kyle Allen showed a bit of potential as Newton’s understudy last season, and Will Grier looked more overwhelmed than not.
New Orleans Saints: Another great receiver for Drew Brees
Now that Drew Brees has acknowledged his return to the Saints in 2020, it would behoove New Orleans’ front office to reinforce the receiver position for their top guy, especially if they would like to present him with a second Super Bowl ring on his way out the door. Last season, Brees completed 74.3% of his passes for 2,979 yards, 27 touchdowns, and four interceptions in 11 games. Teddy Bridgewater was nearly as effective in five games as Brees’ backup when Brees was recovering from a thumb injury. That both quarterbacks were this good with one star and a bunch of question marks at the receiver position should have Sean Payton thinking what’s possible with more.
Michael Thomas firmly established himself as one of the league’s great receivers with 149 catches on 185 targets for 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns, leading the NFL in receptions for the second straight season. After that, it was mostly running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray, and tight end Jared Cook, picking up the slack. The Saints should seriously endeavor to give Brees another receiver who might not be on Thomas’ level, but can do more than limited roles and gimmick stuff. Guys like Taysom Hill, Tedd Ginn, and Tre’Quan Smith are either on the way up, on the way out, or on their way to different positions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A quarterback who throws the ball to his own team
Ouch, we know. Last season, Jameis Winston became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season. He also led the league in passing yards with 5,109, for what that’s worth. When you’re an offensive-minded head coach like Bruce Arians, and your quarterback is equal parts volume and back-breaking inconsistency, it’s a problem. Arians has gone on the record more than once claiming that a lot of Winston’s interceptions weren’t his fault, and while that may be true… well, a lot of his pick-sixes were.
When asked at the scouting combine whether Winston’s offseason LASIK surgery might improve his prospects to re-sign with the team, Arians was his usual unrestrained self.
“I don’t think so. It’s more of a personal thing. His deep ball increased dramatically. So I don’t think he has problem seeing the guys. He has problems seeing the scoreboard sometimes.”.
Last season, under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers improved from dead last to fifth overall in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency metrics. There’s certainly enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to pair with that defense for a team in line for its first playoff berth since 2007. Aligning Winston with the Buccaneers any longer seems to be the kind of thing that could delay that process frustratingly further.
Arizona Cardinals: Someone to keep Kyler Murray alive
In 2019, Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray completed 64.4% of his passes for 3,722 yards, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 87.4. That got Murray the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award, but it also got him sacked a league-high 48 times. It’s never good to get sacked on 25% of your dropbacks, but that’s how life was for Murray in his rookie season. He still managed to complete 43.1% of his passes under pressure for five touchdowns and four interceptions, but head coach and offensive play-designer Kliff Kingsbury will not want a repeat of this in 2020. Arizona could go a couple of different ways in helping Murray — certainly adding another quality offensive tackle to bookend the recently re-signed D.J. Humphries, and giving Murray more defined targets. Murray has already been pounding the table for former Oklahoma teammate CeeDee Lamb, and when your quarterback is that passionate about a potential receiver, it would behoove the franchise to listen.
Los Angeles Rams: About three years of patience
The NFL’s best personnel people will tell you that championship rosters are often built in the bottom third from a salary and starting sense. But occasionally, a team will go all-in on the present, believing that the top talent it has is enough to get the job done. After losing to the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII, Rams head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead thought the latter way. They signed quarterback Jared Goff to a monster contract extension when Goff’s play hadn’t quite put him in the top spot yet. They traded first-round picks in the 2020 and 2021 drafts for Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
They felt the effects of Todd Gurley’s four year, $57.5 million contract extension signed in 2018 when in 2019, Gurley managed just 857 yards on 223 carries, and Goff’s inevitable regression left the offense in the proverbial lurch. In 2020, the Rams have four players — Goff, Gurley, Aaron Donald, and receiver Brandin Cooks — with a combined $95,092,682 in salary cap obligations, and there’s no short-term dead money savings that comes from releasing any of those players. We haven’t even talked about the contract extension Ramsey will get, which will add a good $15 million per year to the equation. It all gets a little easier in 2021, by which time a new CBA could extend the parameters of the salary cap to help the Rams get out of this mess, but in the short term, those big deals have hamstrung the franchise, and without a really exceptional draft class, there isn’t a clear vision to a competitive future.
San Francisco 49ers: Depth in the secondary
The 49ers are about as packed roster-wise as any team in the NFL, which bodes well for future Super Bowl trips if Kyle Shanahan can get the most out of Jimmy Garoppolo without expecting too much. The need for a more dynamic quarterback may or may not come up in free agency and the draft, but a more pressing concern could be depth in the secondary. Losing safety Jaquiski Tartt late in the regular season was one of the things that led to San Francisco’s temporary defensive implosion (from which it eventually recovered), and cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon was, to put it kindly, a liability in coverage. Giving up seven touchdowns to one interception will lead to that. The 49ers eventually replaced Witherspoon with Emmanuel Moseley and that went well, but this is a defense that played nickel on 70% of its snaps last season, and that’s not likely to change. Bringing in a difference-maker or two to add depth and dimension wouldn’t hurt at all.
Seattle Seahawks: A deep safety to bring back the Legion of Boom
When the Seahawks led the NFL in scoring defense every season from 2012 through 2015, establishing the Legion of Boom as one of the greatest defenses in modern football, a primary reason for that excellence was safety Earl Thomas, and the fact that Thomas played over 1,000 snaps in each of those seasons. Injuries started to take their toll in 2016, and the Seahawks deemed Thomas expendable after the 2018 season. You could argue that one either way — Thomas had a remarkable comeback season for the Ravens — but what you can’t argue is that with Delano Hill and Tedric Thompson as the primary Thomas replacements, Seattle’s pass defense looked lost in the sauce far too often.
Veteran Bradley McDougald held his roles together decently, and Seattle pulled off a masterstroke of a midseason trade with the Lions for Quandre Diggs, who is under club control through the 2021 season at bargain rates ($5,168,750 in cap in 2020; $5.5 million in cap in 2021) for his quality of play. But acquiring a true deep safety in the Thomas mold (not easy, we understand) would allow Diggs to roam the field as an attack player in the front six more often, giving that defense more flexibility. It’s the surest way for the Legion of Boom to roar once again before the end of Pete Carroll’s tenure.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar previously covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
