The Rams, Falcons, Eagles, Cowboys and Vikings are lumped together in the NFC standings through the first four weeks of the NFL season. Not at all surprising. Meanwhile, the Panthers and Cardinals have begun to separate themselves from the pack. Another nailed prediction. The NFC is going just as we all thought it might – outside of the fact that almost every team is performing exactly opposite of what was expected.
While the AFC is playing out so far much like it did in 2015 with the Broncos, Patriots, Steelers and Texans all on pace for the postseason, the NFC standings look like something generated by a video game simulation using outdated rosters. If the playoffs started today – and wouldn’t that be strange to start the playoffs on a Tuesday in early October – four of the six participants in the NFC would be teams that missed out in 2015. And missed out by a lot, too. The Eagles, Falcons, Rams and Cowboys were a combined 26-38 a season ago. So far this year they’re 12-3 and trailing only the 4-0 Vikings, a presumed Super Bowl contender in the pre-season … before they lost their starting quarterback and superstar running back to injury, and before Vikings fans felt that familiar sense of hopelessness consume them. Assuming most didn’t expect the Sam Bradford-Jerick McKinnon Vikings to be 4-0, only the 3-1 Seahawks are playing somewhat in line with how we thought they would. (Thanks, fellas!)
Perhaps the biggest surprise of all is the sense that this all isn’t some aberration, an early-season blip that we’ll laugh about in a month – “Hey, remember when the Eagles were undefeated? What was that?” – but the rise of some new and legitimate contenders. That is definitely the case with the Vikings, who have used a dominating defense and simple offense that limits mistakes to knock off quality opponents in the Packers, Panthers and Giants already this season. (Yes, that’s the same formula Denver used to win the Super Bowl last year, and is still employing with any and everyone who happens to get under center again this season. Who’s ready for a Trevor Siemian-Sam Bradford Super Bowl?) In the last two weeks alone, Minnesota’s pass defense has held Kelvin Benjamin and Odell Beckham, Jr, to a combined 23 receiving yards. So if you have DeAndre Hopkins in fantasy football, you may want to bench him in week five because he has to play the Vikings. If Minnesota beats Houston on Sunday, they’ll enter their bye week at 5-0 with a match-up against the Eagles on tap in week seven. Who knew back in the pre-season when Bradford and Carson Wentz were on the same practice field that they’d battle it out for conference supremacy two months later? Absolutely no one. But, hey, maybe some struggling team should consider trading for Chase Daniel now while the Eagles QB depth chart is hot.
While Wentz has been impressive in his first three NFL games and has improved each week, it’s the Eagles defense that has led the way. They’re giving up a league-best 9.0 points per game, highlighted by a complete domination of the Steelers a week ago. Jim Schwartz’s unit held Pittsburgh to just three points on a measly second quarter field goal. Three points to a team that has scored 105 against its other three opponents so far this season including 43 on Sunday night against former Eagles coach Andy Reid. Philadelphia’s schedule is brutal from here on out: four of their next five game are on the road, and they still have to play the Cowboys twice, the Packers, Seahawks, Falcons, Bengals and Vikings. But their defense should keep them competitive every week even if Wentz’s Hall of Fame induction gets delayed by a rough patch.
Defense and an offense that limits turnovers has worked in Los Angeles, too. And Dallas. (Hey, I’m noticing a pattern!) The Eagles and Vikings have the top two scoring defenses in the NFL, but the Rams and Cowboys are ninth and 10th respectively. Rams quarterback Case Keenum has thrown just three interceptions in four games and allowed Aaron Donald and the defense to do the heavy lifting, exactly what a veteran quarterback needs to do to keep a No1 overall pick on the bench. Meanwhile, Cowboys’ fourth-round pick Dak Prescott has set an NFL record for the most pass attempts by a rookie quarterback without an interception to begin his career. It’s not flashy, but it’s effective. And, really, in Dallas just not getting injured as a quarterback can excite the masses.
The Rams already have wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals in the bag, and welcome Rex Ryan and the Bills to LA on Sunday with a chance to get to 4-1. The game is a toss up, especially with Buffalo riding high off of their shutout of the Patriots, but it’s guaranteed there will be some head coach fist-pumping.
Jason Garrett won’t be (awkwardly) celebrating his team’s upcoming schedule. Dallas plays the Bengals, Packers, Eagles and Steelers in their next five games. That stretch will determine their playoff hopes, and probably also whether Prescott cedes the job back to Tony Romo for however long the veteran’s body can keep it.
The Falcons have no such uncertainty at quarterback with Matt Ryan having a career-year in year nine of his career. While the other surprise NFC teams are winning with defense, Atlanta is playing like there is no defense on the field. Ryan is on pace for 44 TDs and nearly 6,000 yards of passing. In Sunday’s 48-33 destruction of the Panthers, Julio Jones had 300 receiving yards. Prescott, Keenum and Bradford haven’t even thrown for 300 yards in a game yet this season.
The Falcons have taken every other winning NFC team’s gameplan and turned it completely upside-down, just like how the whole conference has been flipped so far this season. For Atlanta to get past the Vikings and Seahawks and other top teams in the NFC, conventional wisdom says they’ll need to improve their defense. But then conventional wisdom has been wrong all season. Do whatever you want, Falcons.
