To start with, a couple of statistics that may go some way to explaining why England have recalled George Ford to face New Zealand on Saturday. Against Australia last Saturday, England’s kicking metres were more than 800; New Zealand, in their quarter-final, more than 700. England kicked from hand on 20 occasions, reclaiming the ball nine times; the All Blacks kicked from hand on 29 occasions and won the ball back a staggering 19 times.
Both sides thrive on territory because they have such good efficiency when they get into the opponents’ 22. They have the ability and the skill set to maximise how often they come away with points whenever the get into that area. Ford provides England with another kicking option and the way he has given his side territory whenever he has played has been fantastic.
It seems to have been forgotten in all the talk of Ford and Owen Farrell that New Zealand also have two fly‑halves, it’s just that the second is Beauden Barrett at full-back. He has said that in his first few matches at full-back with Richie Mo’unga at No 10, he found himself still occupying positions that a fly-half would, that he was almost stepping on Mo’unga’s toes. He has had to learn how to operate in his own space and it is a testament to his quality that he is doing that so well.
I believe that Barrett is the best fly-half in the world but he has now established himself as the best full‑back in the world. There is not a better player anywhere. We can get obsessed with whether Farrell is a No 10 or a No 12 but the best players in the world, and Farrell is one of those, don’t care – they still have a huge impact on the game.
As much as the teams will kick for territory, it is kicking to win the ball back as well. Both teams have world class back-threes and their ability to control broken field play sets them apart. By that I mean both sides are so well versed at manufacturing broken field play. As soon as you win the ball back you are on the front foot and it creates counterattack ball. Saracens do it better than anyone and they have had a fair bit of success over the last few years.
In a match like this there are two areas that will be decisive. First, it’s the battle on the floor. Can you control the speed of the ruck, come out on top in terms of turnovers and own the gainline?
Then there is the battle of the airwaves. If England are going to control that then they will need Ben Youngs to be on the money with his box-kicking because Aaron Smith is the leading scrum-half in the world, but if they can then it will give them such a stronghold from which to build momentum.
Whenever a coach picks a team they are looking to find the balance between a style of play that enables the team to achieve its objectives and at the same time provide an antidote to what the opposition is trying to do. Last week the threat was obvious – England were wary of Samu Kerevi and so Eddie Jones wanted to bolster that 10-12 channel. The best way I can sum up his selection policy this week is that everything has been flipped on its head.
The first half will be a wrestle for control. It is likely that when things open up in the last 20 minutes we will see Sonny Bill Williams coming on for New Zealand and providing a similar sort of threat to Kerevi. In that instance it would be no surprise to see Manu Tuilagi move back to inside‑centre, Farrell moving to fly-half and Henry Slade coming on at No 13.
It’s the same with the lineout. It is an area where England struggled badly in the second half against New Zealand a year ago so who better than to come on in the second half than George Kruis, England’s best lineout operator, to shore things up? It also pays to remember than if Luke Cowan-Dickie comes on, he will be under enormous pressure at the lineout. He has had a wonderful tournament but in a semi-final against New Zealand, the pressure goes up a few notches. Having Kruis calling the shots will be a huge help because that last 20 minutes is going to be decisive.
The question over England in the past 12-18 months has been whether they have the mental toughness to close a match out or chase a game of this kind of magnitude. We know they can start fast but we have seen them throw away leads against South Africa last summer and Scotland during the Six Nations. We’ve seen a mental resilience built up but then they have not truly been tested in that regard in Japan. Part of that is how well they have played and part of it has been the standard of opposition.
Against New Zealand, however, it is going to take a complete performance. The task is huge but I have such a strong belief in this team. That’s not based on soundbites from press conferences, it’s based on knowing the players and how hard they’ve worked. The challenge is to beat the best team in the world, the current champions. The British & Irish Lions beat them once in a three-Test series and that was an incredible feat.
Can this England team supersede what the Lions did, can they deliver? It’s the biggest game England have faced since the 2007 World Cup final but I believe they can.
