2-1 favourites: Amy Winehouse and Blake Fielder-Civil. Photograph: Graham Whitby Boot/Allstar
New year - the time at which all journalists with space to fill make predictions for the coming 12 months, while the chronically indolent Lost in Showbiz merely slugs down another barbiturate-garnished cocktail and slurs, "Let the market decide."
And so to the opening show of betting in Paddy Power's "First Couple to Divorce" event, wherein the attention-humping bookmaker runs its meanly proportioned virtual Biro over the world of celebrity and asks: who's heading for unimaginable pain? Which of these famous unions simply burns too brightly?
Naturally, there's always a suspicion with these types of publicity-garnering initiatives that if you attempted to place 10 grand on any of the runners and riders, the book would be swiftly closed amid mysterious accusations of "unusual betting patterns". That is, "any betting at all". But for now, let us put aside the distrust that too often dogs the bookie's craft, and consider the first show of odds in the Great Rending Asunder Stakes 2008.
Amy Winehouse and Blake Fielder-Civil, the 2-1 favourites, represent a dilemma for even the seasoned punter. On the one hand, this week's news that the couple are to renew their vows could see them drift as far as sevens; on the other, the fact that the ceremony will have to take place in Pentonville prison, where Blake is banged up on charges of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice and GBH, might see them slashed to evens by the weekend.
Liz Hurley and waxwork houseboy Arun Nayar are no more tempting at 11-4, but better value are the Jolie-Pitts at fours. Students of the form book will be aware that Angelina and Brad have had strong disagreements as to whom they should endorse for the Democratic nomination - she favours John Edwards, while Brad is taken by Barack Obama - and though the official candidacy is technically out of their hands now, there's every chance that anything other than a Hillary win could result in an unbearably poignant period of tattoo-removal, followed by the pair picking team members from their pool of picturesque adoptive and biological children.
Further out are Madonna and Guy Ritchie (6-1), with Jordan and Peter Andre at 8-1. As for the footballing community, the vogue for sin-dwelling has forced the oddsmakers to run a separate book that counts common-law husbands and wives as potential splitters, though the big market movers are officially spliced Chelsea charmer Ashley Cole and his ABH conviction-sporting Girl Aloud Cheryl Tweedy, who come in from 10-1 to nines.
Back to the main show, as Posh and Becks are out at 20-1, with Catherine Zeta-Jones and Michael Douglas well-priced at 50-1, though the stereotype-mindful punter might judge that the combination of a forensically detailed prenuptial agreement and Michael's hastening dotage makes the marriage Hollywood's Most Likely to Succeed. It's 100-1 bar those.
Anything vaguely cheerier? Well, Paddy Power has obligingly opted to keep the housewives happy by opening a "First to Have a Baby" book, which features most of the same names, with Jordan and Peter 5-1 favourites to swell their brood. At 8-1 are both the Rooney-McLoughlins and the Jolie-Pitts, the latter the subject of professional money from Chinese orphanage sites.
Distant 16-1 chances are the Winehouse-Fielder-Civils - a mug's punt, in the circs - while bracketed at 18s are Titanic ham Billy Zane and fiancee Kelly Brook; and mandatorily revered Aussie battler Kylie Minogue (inseminator unspecified).
But it's Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes who look the value at 10-1. Punters willing to risk a stewards' inquiry - should any baby be found to have been gestated not in Katie herself, but in a Scientology-approved handmaiden, imprisoned in a birthing pod somewhere in the Mojave desert - are advised to pile in today. New year's good luck to you all.
