This week our prop bet picks are based on opponent. We have a quarterback who’s hot playing an elite defense projected to be scorched, and we’re not buying. We have three Over projections, because the teams those players are facing have a history of getting burned. We have a final pick that is based solely out of revenge and, one way or another, it’s going to happen.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Los Angeles Chargers TE Gerald Everett OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-115)
Really? Everett? Yup. He’s playing the Las Vegas Raiders, who are among the worst teams in the NFL against tight ends. These are the same Raiders that held Travis Kelce to 25 yards – and four touchdowns. In their first meeting, Everett had three catches for 54 yards and a touchdown, and the Chargers will be looking to repeat what worked the first time and have a couple plays dialed up for Everett down the seam. He may need only two catches to hit this number, and Justin Herbert will be looking him.
4
Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-115)
I have no idea what to make of the 2022 Los Angeles Rams, who appear content to fold their tent and move on to 2023 as the number of injuries to key players mounts. I was a big fan of Walker on fantasy draft day back in August when he was officially the No. 2 guy in Seattle’s backfield. I’m a much bigger fan now. Given the potential ineptitude of the Rams’ “B-Team” offense, Walker should get 20 carries just to end the game. I would boost this bet to more than 90 yards and still be confident in the result.
3
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 273.5 passing yards (-115)
While I’m not guzzling the San Francisco 49ers-flavored Kool-Aid like so many others, I have a healthy respect for the physicality they bring. This number is more in line with playing a middle-of-the-road defense. Tagovailoa is going to get blitzed and pressured from different directions on every play. The only way he tops this O/U number is if his speedy receivers provide half of it with yards after the catch.
2
Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb OVER 69.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Cowboys don’t have to do a lot at home to beat the Indianapolis Colts. Their defense will do most of the work on behalf of the team. That being said, the Colts are going to make stopping Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott (in that order) a priority. Lamb is going to get a lot of single coverage, and Dak Prescott is going to take notice early. For a player of Lamb’s talent, getting to 70 yards is an expectation, not an achievement … at home … against a pretty dismal opponent.
1
Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown scores a touchdown (+120)
I love me some revenge. It’s a dish best served with a cold slap to the face. Much less when it comes against the team that traded you (Tennessee Titans), reuniting you with one of your best friends … who happens to be your quarterback (Jalen Hurts). I think Brown is going to get 100 yards in this one despite both offenses being based on running the ball. That being said, one of the reasons I love “any touchdown” bets are that Brown’s stat line could read “1-2-1.” All that matters to me is the “1” at the end. The Eagles will find a way to let A.J. celebrate.
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