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Wales Online
Wales Online
Sport
Ian Mitchelmore

The best Euro 2020 group draw Wales can get and the nightmare other option

Wales fans have little more than a week to wait for the outcome of the Euro 2020 draw.

Ryan Giggs' men booked their place at next year's competition with a 2-0 win over Hungary at Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday night.

The draw takes place in Bucharest, Romania, at 5pm on Saturday, November 30, with six groups of four teams.

It will be a complicated format, but there are certain things we do know already.

Wales and Finland are in the bottom pool of seeds, along with four sides who will qualify through the back door via the Nations League.

The top group of seeds, based upon the most points gained in qualifying, are Italy, Belgium, England, Spain, Ukraine and Germany. Results against the bottom sides in qualifying pools of six have been discounted.

Under the same system, the second group of seeds contains France, Switzerland, Croatia, Poland, Netherlands and Russia.

The third group features Portugal, Turkey, Denmark, Austria, Sweden and Czech Republic.

Unfortunately, Wales' stunning exploits in marching to the semi-finals of Euro 2016 will have no bearing on the seeding system for next year's tournament.

Given that there are 12 host nations this time, those who have qualified (or could do so via the play-offs) have already been pre-placed into the following groups to ensure they are at home in at least two group games:

Group A:  Italy, Azerbaijan (can't qualify)

Group B:  Russia, Denmark

Group C:  Netherlands, Romania (play-offs)

Group D:  England, Scotland (play-offs)

Group E:  Spain, Republic of Ireland (play-offs)

Group F:  Germany, Hungary (play-offs)

Wales players celebrate at the end of the game (Ben Evans/Huw Evans Agency)

As nations must play in the group of their host city, much of the draw is pre-determined.

The group draws, as we say, are very complicated, involving seedings and other factors.

Because the Nations League play-off winners, who won't be known until March, seem likely to go into groups C, D, E and F, it is being suggested Wales and Finland can only go into either Group A or Group B.

Group A will definitely contain Italy who will host matches in Rome.

As for Group B, that will have Denmark and Russia who will stage games in Copenhagen and Saint Petersburg respectively, along with Belgium as top seeds.

This group cannot contain the Ukraine as top seeds because UEFA have deemed they and Russia need to be separated for political reasons. So Ukraine are set to be in Group C as top seeds, with the Netherlands as second seeds.

Thus, if Wales are in Group A, they will face:

  • Italy
  • One of France, Poland, Switzerland or Croatia
  • One of Portugal, Turkey, Austria, Sweden or Czech Republic

If Wales are in Group B, they will face:

  • Belgium
  • Russia
  • Denmark
Wales manager Ryan Giggs celebrates (PA)

Best case scenario for Wales

This is rather tricky to call as Group B contains a Belgium side that won all 10 of their qualifying fixtures and are currently number one in the world rankings.

Wales have a fine record against them in recent years, but make no mistake, they're a formidable outfit with Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne heading up a glut of world class stars.

Then Wales would also be up against Denmark and Russia, who as joint hosts would each be playing on home soil.

So Wales would be up against it, meaning the best case scenario looks to be getting a favourable draw in Group A, if there is such a thing.

Wales would play top seeds and hosts Italy. They would then hope to draw either Poland or Switzerland from pot two of seeds.

As for pot three, avoiding Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal would be the main focus, with Turkey, Austria, Sweden and Czech Republic being fairly evenly matched.

Best case: Italy, Switzerland, Austria, Wales.

Gareth Bale celebrates with Joe Allen after Wales' win over Hungary (Ben Evans/Huw Evans Agency)

Worst case scenario for Wales

This one looks fairly simple to work out.

Wales could be in a doomsday group containing Italy, reigning world champions France and Euro 2016 winners Portugal.

That looks brutal to say the least.

Worst case: Italy, France, Portugal, Wales.

So where are Wales likely to be playing?

Group A fixtures will be played at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy and at the National Stadium in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Group B fixtures will be held at the Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark and at the Krestovsky Stadium in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

When will everything become official?

The aforementioned seeding pots were officially confirmed by UEFA on Wednesday afternoon and, as we say, while the draw takes place on Saturday week, only at that point can any of this be officially confirmed, while there is the possibility of a second draw to be taken after the play-offs which could change things, but this is how it might pan out.

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