Rookies will have an unusually tough go of things in the 2020 NFL season. The lack of physical preparation time with their new coaches and teammates, prompted by the coronavirus pandemic, makes an already difficult ramp-up time even more severe.
Kyler Murray, the 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year, had the perfect triumvirate of starting opportunity, a set of schemes favorable to his skill set, and the talent to make the most of it all.
Here, in reverse order, are the rookies with the best chance to mirror Murray’s success — and take home the award that’s now his.
Antonio Gibson, RB/WR, Washington Redskins
New Redskins head coach Ron Rivera has intimated that over time, he may use Gibson as he used Christian McCaffrey with the Panthers — as a five-tool, yards after catch monster. Gibson needs work with the finer points of the running back position, and with a full route tree as a receiver, which is why he went in the third round instead of the first. But there’s no denying his explosive potential — in 2019 for Memphis, he broke 16 tackles on 33 rushing attempts, and 17 tackles on 38 catches. Moreover, he averaged an insane 11.2 yards per carry as a runner. Gibson is raw, but he’ll add a ton to Washington’s offense.
Zack Moss, RB, Buffalo Bills
Moss somehow fell to the 86th overall pick in the third round despite his three-year run of 1,000-yard seasons with Utah. He’ll have to share time with Devin Singletary in Buffalo’s backfield, but this is a guy who broke 89 tackles last season and gained 1,042 yards after contact. With toughness and agility, he brings another former Bills draft pick — Marshawn Lynch — to mind.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
First overall draft pick Joe Burrow will enjoy throwing to Higgins, the Clemson alum, who was selected with the first overall pick in the second round. He was debited a bit in a deep receiver class, but he brings A.J. Green — who Burrow will also be throwing to — to mind with his wild catch radius, deep speed, and ability to make the contested catch. His combination of size (6’4″, 205 pounds) and vertical production (15 catches and six touchdowns on passes of 20 or more air yards) is unmatched in this class.
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ running back situation is up in the air as Todd Gurley is now in Atlanta, and Darrell Henderson is more of a situational back. Akers was selected with the 52nd overall pick in the second round after gaining 1,144 yards and scoring 14 touchdowns on just 231 carries. That he did so in Florida State’s dumpster fire of an offense augurs well for his NFL future, and he won’t lack for opportunities.
Denzel Mims, WR, New York Jets
Mims produced at a high level for Baylor, bringing to mind Josh Gordon — another Baylor alum — with his deep speed and jump-ball ability. He is in no way ready to run an NFL route tree, but as Gordon was able to do before his off-field demons took over, Mims can beat the daylights out of cornerbacks and safeties with just a handful of routes — and there are no known off-field issues with which to contend.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers got to and nearly won Super Bowl LIV without a consistent deep receiver who could take the top off a defense. Aiyuk solves that problem immediately, as his eight catches of 20 or more air yards for Arizona State in 2019 is nearly double what any 49ers receiver had — Emmanuel Sanders led the team with five, and you have to include the postseason to get there.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
One of the primary aspects of a successful rookie campaign is opportunity based on the relative weakness of a positional group. Last season, Kerryon Johnson led the Lions with 403 yards and three touchdowns on 113 carries. That’s why Detroit picked Swift, the Georgia alum who gained 1,218 yards on the ground last season, and may well be the best receiving back in this draft class.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
Pittman was another receiver who was relatively lost in such a deep class at the position, but there’s no overlooking his production for USC in 2019 — 101 catches for 1,275 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’ll now be in a Frank Reich-led offense that has always been favorable to complete receivers who can run complementary routes, and that’s exactly what Pittman brings to the table. Expect him to be Philip Rivers’ new best friend.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
It won’t be easy for the Vikings to replace Stefon Diggs after trading the star receiver to the Bills. And while Jefferson’s skill set is a bit different — he’s not quite as explosive as Diggs has proven to be — he’ll be an outstanding foil for Kirk Cousins with his ability in the slot. Last season, nobody in the NCAA caught more passes from the slot than Jefferson’s 109, and nobody gained more than his 1,518 slot yards. He also has potential as an outside receiver, as his nine deep catches and six deep touchdowns proved.
Jalen Reagor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Reagor caught just 43 passes for 611 yards and five touchdowns last season for TCU, so why did the Eagles take him with the 21st overall pick? Because his quarterback situation was one of the NCAA’s worst. Pro Football Focus charted just 30.7% of Reagor’s targets as accurate or catchable, and he still managed to catch eight deep passes for four touchdowns. Put him in an NFL-level passing game (heck, put him in an above-average Division-II passing game) and watch him become an estimable target for Carson Wentz.
Henry Ruggs III, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Ruggs going to the Raiders with the 12th overall pick most have made the late Al Davis happy, given Davis’ decades-long thing for receivers who could burn down the field, forcing cornerbacks and safeties to play catch-up. Ruggs, the Alabama alum who ran a 4.27 40-yard dash at the scouting combine, has every bit of that speed on the field, and he’s a more diverse route-runner than you might expect. Once he lines up with Derek Carr, the Raiders’ passing could the vertical festival Jon Gruden clearly wants it to be.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
The one thing that set Jeudy apart from every receiver in an absolutely stacked receiver class is the consistency and versatility of his route-running. It showed all over his Alabama tape, and the only thing that will stop him from tying NFL defenders in knots is the relative inconsistency of quarterback Drew Lock, who’s still learning the nuances of the position.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Jerry Jones and his front office were quite happy to steal Oklahoma’s Lamb with the 17th overall pick — he’ll add a ton to a receiver corps that’s already full of talent with Amari Cooper and the underrated Michael Gallup. Lamb may not have high-end deep speed, but from route awareness to short-area quickness to toughness over the middle, he’s got everything else to be a No. 1 receiver in the NFL.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
This is assuming Tagovailoa’s hip is 100% when he gets into Dolphins training camp, and if it is, he’ll super-charge Miami’s offense with a skill set that is equal parts Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. Over three seasons at Alabama, Tagovailoa’s combination of a 69.3% completion rate and 10.9 yards per attempt is as sure an indicator of success as one can extrapolate.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs managed to win their first Super Bowl in 50 years with the NFL’s most explosive offense, and that was without the home run threat at running back they’d had in Kareem Hunt before Hunt’s off-field issues prompted his release. Edwards-Helaire, who was the glue that held LSU’s national championship offense together in 2019, is an ideal cog in Andy Reid’s offense, because he can do everything from working through inside runs to lining up wide as a primary target for Patrick Mahomes. This might be the best bet for OROY in 2020. Of course, there is the matter of Edwards-Helaire’s former quarterback…
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Forget anything you’ve heard about Burrow being a “one-year wonder” at LSU — you don’t shred most of the NCAA’s best defenses as he did in 2019 if you’re a fluke. Whether facing zone or man coverage, under pressure, in or out of the pocket, no quarterback was more prolific than Burrow last season, and his 2019 campaign was one of the greatest quarterback seasons in collegiate history. The Bengals aren’t quite there when it comes to surrounding him with talent on the offensive line, but he’s got the receiver corps, and the talent, to put up some estimable NFL numbers.
