New Welsh Government maps show the danger that climate change pose for the city of Newport.
Sea level rise and flooding are predicted to be real issues for the city in the coming years, even if action is taken immediately to address the climate emergency. This is because temperature rises are thought to be more or less inevitable until 2050.
New maps published by the Welsh Government and Natural Resources Wales form part of planning guidance which compels developers to take into account future flooding and coastal erosion risk.
Read more: Nine ways climate change is going to drastically alter life in Wales
These maps will be updated every six months and show that 11.3% of Wales is at risk of flooding from the sea. This is up from 9.86% last time the maps were updated. It is worth noting that these images do not take into account future flood defences and reflect the situation on the ground currently. Unlike many parts of Wales, Newport is likely to see significant investments in flood defences in the coming years.
To make the map the designers used the central estimate for climate change which assumes the following:
- 20-30% increase in river levees at peak flow
- A 20% increase in rainfall
- Just over 1.11 m sea-level rise
The images below show how different parts of Wales will be affected. Green indicate risks from sea-level rise whereas blue indicates a risk of flooding:
Areas likely to be underwater due to see level rises from melting icecaps:
This map shows how much of Newport City Centre will be underwater with 1.11m of sea level rise.
Huge swathes of the city centre are affected with Lliswerry, Pillgwenlly and Somerton submerged without protection.
To the south east of the city most of the land is underwater stretching towards Magor and Caldicot.
To the north of the city the line of the river Usk is still under threat from rising sea levels for miles north.
These areas show the parts of Newport which will likely be affected by flooding as rain fall and river flows increase:
Even if there is extra costal protection put in place Newport is already facing substantial threats from flooding.
The Usk is one of the UK's largest rivers with several tributaries. Increased rain fall and river flow could pose a flood risk to many homes along its path.
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