The Arctic: here today, gone in 40 years

<img alt="The Arctic" src="http://blogs.theguardian.com/news/archives/arcticblog.jpg" width="400" height="200"/
A satellite image of the existing Arctic sea ice. Photograph: Nasa/AP
A new 10-second animation, provides a scary illustration of the possible impact of climate change over the next 40 years.

Produced by the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Colorado it shows the possible fate of the Arctic ice cap, based on new computer modelling. At first, the size of summer ice fluctuates as you might expect, but after about 2025 it disappears faster than a snowball in hell.

The scientists explain that after 2025 a "positive feedback loop" kicks in, with very negative consequences for the Arctic. "As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice," says Marika Holland, one of the scientists who conducted the research.

It is alarming people around the world, including palaeoecologist Daphne Mavrogiorgos, of Ecosophy in Greece, who is already worrried by the mosquitos in freakishly high temperatures in Athens, and Green Canuck, of Canada, who pleads, "Why can't we stop this insanity?"

But Jack Krupansky, from Washington, is not convinced.

"It is simply not credible for any of these scientists to "suggest" that they truly fathom the complex mechanisms of planetary geology, continental land masses, foliage, oceans, the atmosphere, solar heating and cooling, climate, and weather systems with sufficient rigor to be able to produce relatively simple models that can forecast ocean, atmosphere, and climate effects decades into the future."