When it comes to the 2019 quarterback class, most analysts have Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins and Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray at the top of the list, and for good reason. Both players have shown skills that would transfer well to the NFL level. Both players stood out statistically in their first seasons as full-time starters. In 2018, Haskins completed 373 of 533 passes for 4,831 yards, 50 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions. The combination of a 70% completion rate and an Adjusted Passing Yards per Attempt of 10.3 is certainly enticing—Murray completed 69% of his passes and had an AY/A of 13.0 last season and Baker Mayfield, the first overall pick in 2018 and the best rookie quarterback in the NFL in 2018, had a 70.5% completion rate and an AY/A of 12.9 for Oklahoma in 2017.
So, Haskins lines up there. And with a pre-combine measurement of 6’3” and 220 pounds, he fits the physical prototype for a modern quarterback in ways that Mayfield and Murray don’t. Haskins thrived in a system with a great offensive line and quality receivers—part of the Buckeyes’ recruiting dominance under Urban Meyer. Per Pro Football Focus, when Haskins had a clean pocket in 2018, his numbers were stunning. He threw 43 of his touchdowns and just five interceptions from a clean pocket with a 134.4 quarterback rating.
Haskins also benefited from a designed quick passing game that had him throwing a lot of screens when he was under pressure; Ohio State’s offense was designed to give him an easy bailout read on a high percentage of his passing plays. Again per PFF, 644 of his passing yards and six of his touchdowns came on screens, by far the most of any Power-5 quarterback. Both Murray and Missouri’s Drew Lock were tasked to throw more passes beyond the sticks than Haskins was, and in Murray’s case, it was a lot more—55.2% to Haskins’ 41.7%.
These schematic conceits were necessary for Haskins because of two liabilities that stand out on tape. Haskins isn’t yet a composed quarterback under pressure, and he’s not really a runner at all, despite what Stephen A. Smith might think. Haskins ran the ball 79 times for 108 yards and four touchdowns last season—that’s a princely yards per carry average of 1.4. Not that Smith ever watches tape before spouting off, but the “more a runner than a thrower” thing was one of his more embarrassingly incorrect assertions.
Haskins’ response was classic.
Morning-show idiocy aside, how much of a problem is it that Haskins isn’t especially mobile? With the constructs of the Ohio State system, it obviously wasn’t much of a problem at all. But the team selecting Haskins, most likely within the first 10 picks of the draft given his production and the importance of his position, had best be aware of it. This is not a quarterback who will run his way out of trouble and still make accurate deep throws after he’s been flushed out of the pocket. Apparently, some people believe that anybody with Haskins’ complexion is “naturally athletic” or whatever, but this is not the case. When he enters the NFL, Haskins will be as pocket-bound as any professional quarterback, and I’m not sure how that will change over time.
Of course, quarterbacks can get around that with pocket movement. Tom Brady is the best I’ve ever seen at navigating around the pocket, stepping up, and making throws only he can. A lack of mobility outside the pocket is far from a professional death sentence, and Haskins has done a great job of managing his own limitations. He has a plus-level arm. He reads the field very well. He does move well within the pocket. He can look off a safety and hit his second or third read.
Clearly, this is a guy who has done his homework in preparation for NFL defenses that will be far more advanced than anything he saw in college. But when you strip those clean pocket numbers away, and deal with a life under pressure, the numbers are a bit iffy. Take away the screen game, and put him in an offense where iso routes and deeper throws are the order of the day, and he might have trouble surviving it.
As I did with Murray in a recent tape study, I wanted to focus on one game against a high-quality, NFL-style defense to discern how Haskins might do under pressure. Ohio State’s 28-23 Rose Bowl win over the Washington Huskies gave me that opportunity. In this game, Haskins completed 25 of 37 passes for 251 yards and three touchdowns. He also took three sacks, and one throw under pressure should have been an interception. Let’s go under the hood and watch Dwayne Haskins, both good and bad, against a great defense designed to stop him.
This sack on third-and-17 early in the game shows that there are times when Haskins does move up in the pocket, and still is too deliberate when deciding to pull the trigger. He’s probably not going to get the first down on a quick throw to his left, but the intermediate crosser is a possibility, and nothing happens. The ability to read and react quickly under pressure is another indispensable component of top-level quarterbacking, and here, Haskins doesn’t show it.
This invasion right up the middle results in a wildly-thrown ball that should have been picked off. More often than not, you’ll see Haskins try to make the throw from a stationary point as opposed to working laterally to extend the play.
Generally speaking, when quarterbacks don’t do things that could and should work to their advantage, it’s because they know they really can’t. Asking Haskins to extend the play by moving laterally is not an ideal option. Here, he boots right out of pressure and simply gives up on the second-level route.
This is another simple boot-right throw in which Haskins can’t find his target. Generally speaking, his mechanics on the move appear more awkward than they should, and while that’s something his NFL position coaches can deal with to a point, it’s a concern if he’s in an offense that requires these kinds of passes.
Also, he might not be your best RPO guy.
Of course, Haskins will still be coveted because of what he can do in a clean pocket. This is his first touchdown pass against Washington, and it’s impressive. Watch him look off the safety and make a dime of a throw. He does these types of things consistently, and they’re the kinds of throws that put him in the upper percentile of collegiate quarterbacks over the last decade.
Here’s the ideal Haskins play–step up in the pocket, and make the big-time throw with velocity, touch, and anticipation.
And this deep pass to the right boundary is another example of what Haskins can do undisturbed.
But overall, when you bring pressure against Haskins, there isn’t an Option C at this point–it’s generally either a sack or an errant throw. Not much in the middle, and that’s disconcerting.
Again, Haskins’ lack of mobility doesn’t mean he won’t succeed in the NFL. It does mean that without the right kind of system that allows him to make these great throws in a clean pocket, and dump the ball off quickly when things aren’t favorable, he may struggle more than people think.
