A context-free take based loosely on strength of schedule is always going to be problematic. But after the Chiefs clipped one of the AFC’s top seeds Sunday, edging out the Colts 23–20 on the shoulders of an incredible defensive performance, it’s hard not to wonder whether the AFC playoff picture is best oriented upside down.
The Chiefs and Texans are both 6–5, but have played by far the most difficult schedules in the conference (along with the Jaguars). Indianapolis is currently in the middle of a stretch in which it lost to the Steelers (arguably its third-toughest opponent of the season to that point), nearly lost to the adrift Falcons in overtime and has now lost to Kansas City. Upcoming still are two games apiece against the Texans and Jaguars, and games against the Seahawks and 49ers.
The Chiefs have games against the Cowboys, Titans and Raiders remaining, in addition to a painfully decimated Chargers team that looks completely different in complexion than the one Kansas City lost to by one score in Brazil in Week 1.
So, instead of positioning this as Kansas City’s turnaround or Indianapolis’s downfall, let’s correctly point out, as we do before the season starts, that the NFL is incredibly adept at frontloading the schedules of prospective contenders to satisfy the hunger of various broadcast partners for elite names before injuries take their toll, which allows the end of the season to feel more like the realization of parody when, in reality, it marks the evening out of a forcibly leveled playing field. In the case of some teams like the Commanders, who were demolished this year in net rest differential, or the 49ers in 2024, who suffered a similar fate, a team’s relevance can be flat-out discarded by Thanksgiving.
In the case of contenders like the Chiefs, they are subject to a meat grinder of a schedule that makes every game feel like a Rose Bowl in the 1940s, then endless takes on underperformance when the reality is closer to pure exhaustion (which, unless you’re Anthony Richardson, you can’t really admit to).
Just look at the slate of opponents to open the season for AFC three teams we would consider to be underperforming to some degree.
Ravens (6–5): Bills, Browns, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Rams.
Chiefs (6–5): Chargers (at peak health), Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Jaguars, Lions, Raiders, Commanders, Bills.
Texans (6–5): Rams, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Titans, Ravens, Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos, Jaguars, Titans, Bills.
By this argument, only the Bills, who have enjoyed a fairly generous slate pockmarked with true inconsistency, are really something resembling disappointing.
On Sunday, we saw the Chiefs face off against one of the seven best passing defenses in the NFL and, additionally, a team that was uniquely adept at the popularized anti–Patrick Mahomes defense. Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo showed a buffet of five-man fronts, dropped different numbers every time and always had an athletic defensive lineman or edge player waiting to spy Mahomes and prevent him from running the football. You could see it throughout the game’s most critical moments, where the addition of Sauce Gardner (and Charvarius Ward) allowed the Colts to take a player and remove him from the equation entirely. The Colts played a ton of man defense and, until that unit was completely exhausted by Kansas City’s 11- and 15-play fourth-quarter drives, were able to shut down the Chiefs’ offensive machine and relegate them to a heavy dependence on a 30-year-old Kareem Hunt.
And … Kansas City still won! The team lost a clear score on a phantom penalty call (and possibly another), faced the defensive equivalent of a haunted house and manufactured the kind of victory we fail to recognize because it doesn’t contain all the necessary bells and whistles.
As exciting as it was not to have the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens as some kind of inevitability at the beginning of the season, Sunday showed a clear demarcation between the class of the conference and the teams that, while improved, are merely enjoying a fortuitous run against bad, injured or ill-rested football teams.
Don’t believe me? Wait until the opening weekend of the playoffs, when Kansas City ends up as one of the most heavily favored road teams in recent NFL history. The same will likely be said about the Bills and, if Baltimore somehow can’t manage to close out the AFC North, the Ravens as well.
Tired is continuing to wave your hands and say we’re in a simulation that always leads us back to important matchups between the NFL’s most recognizable brands. Wired is realizing that it’s far more entertaining to set the most recognizable brands out into the deep wilderness for three months before enjoying the windfall that comes with all of them shattering the playoff picture.
While certain tentpoles of NFL analytics culture are detestable, having every-down EPA recognition that Kansas City was the second-best offense in the NFL coming into this game and its defense was capable of holding the league’s best offense—and best running back—to a net negative EPA is all we need to know. The Chiefs aren’t back, because they’ve kind of always been here.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as The AFC Playoff Bracket Is Upside Down, But Familiar Teams Have One Reason to Believe.
