The Carolina Panthers are entering a new era of football. Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly and Ron Rivera are out of the picture. This team is now led by the likes of Teddy Bridgewater, Christian McCaffrey and Matt Rhule.
It took Rhule two years to turn around the programs at Temple and Baylor at his previous stops. In his first season as coach he’ll face an extraordinary number of challenges both on and off the field. Let’s review the five biggest ones he’ll have to deal with in year one.
1. Pass protection
The problem: Last year, the Panthers allowed more sacks (58) than any other team in the league. Some of them you can chalk up to Kyle Allen holding onto the ball too long. Most were due to poor pass blocking, though. As a team, Carolina also ranked relatively low in advanced metrics like pass block win rate and adjusted sack rate.
What’s changed: The offensive line has turned over three starters from last season. Russell Okung will start at left tackle and both guard positions will also change, with John Miller and Michael Schofield projected to start in place of Greg Van Roten and Trai Turner.
The x-factor: The personnel changes on the field are important, but in this case the crucial one is likely a coaching one. Long-time offensive line coach John Matsko is gone and has been replaced by Pat Meyer. If he can get this group to exel in pass protection the way it has in run blocking in recent years, it will likely bring a massive improvement for the team’s passing offense.
2. Passing efficiency
The problem: Carolina suffered from awful quarterback play last season. After two games of an injured Cam Newton, Kyle Allen started 12 games and wound up averaging just 6.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranked No. 24 in the league. Will Grier’s final two games were no better.
What’s changed: The Panthers are going to miss Newton’s athleticism, especially his arm strength. Teddy Bridgewater is a fine game manager type of quarterback, but he can’t match Cam’s power and in general is not very aggressive. In 2019, he averaged only 6.2 intended air yards per attempt, which was lower than any regular starter in the NFL.
The x-factor: Bridgewater has the ability to hit targets of 25+ yards down the field. He just needs to be willing to take more of those shots to take advantage of the Panthers’ speed at wide receiver. If offensive coordinator Joe Brady can unleash Bridgewater’s more aggressive instincts, it will make this a far more dynamic offense.
3. Diversity on offense
The problem: Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the NFL today, hands down. He’s only human though and can’t be expected to carry the team the way he did last year. The Panthers totaled 5,469 yards of offense last season. McCaffrey accounted for 2,392 of them, or 43.7%. He also scored 19 of their 37 touchdowns and played 93% of the snaps. They need to find more balance to keep McCaffrey healthy.
What’s changed: General manager Marty Hurney brought in some new passing weapons this offseason, most notably former Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson. The team also brought in a new running back with the undrafted rookie Rodney Smith.
The x-factor: The key here is also likely to be a coaching one. Brady’s scheme is designed to get as many passing weapons on the field as possible, often fielding four and five receiver sets. That should help keep opponents on their toes and give Bridgewater options to spread the ball around.
4. Run defense
The problem: Carolina was the worst run defense team in the NFL last season and it wasn’t even close. They allowed opponents to average 1.9 rushing touchdowns per game, half a score more than any other team. They also ranked dead last in run defense DVOA.
What’s changed: Even though it clearly wasn’t working, Ron Rivera stuck with the 3-4 defense far too long and it was a major factor in his firing in December. New defensive coordinator Phil Snow is expected to move the team back to a 4-3 scheme, which is better suited for the players on the roster. Drafting Auburn’s star DT Derrick Brown in the first round should also help stop the bleeding here.
The x-factor: As much potential as Brown has as a run stopper, the bigger deal is getting Kawann Short back on the field. Short missed 14 games with a shoulder injury last season. If he’s healthy for most of the 2020 campaign it should have a huge impact on run defense.
5. Covering rival receivers
The problem: The NFC South is a veritable murderer’s row of superb talents at the wide receiver position. With the Saints picking up Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, each division rival now has at least two extremely potent weapons at this spot. As if that weren’t enough, the Buccaneers also added Rob Gronkowski at tight end.
What’s changed: To make matters worse, the Panthers lost a lot of depth at cornerback this offseason. James Bradberry left for the Giants in free agency and both Ross Cockrell and Javien Elliott remain unsigned. They’ve since drafted Troy Pride Jr. and Stantley Thomas Oliver and signed Eli Apple, but this is easily the team’s weakest link on defense.
The x-factor: Apple struggled with New Orleans last season in coverage, no question. He will need to have a bounce-back kind of year, as will Donte Jackson, who was benched late in 2019 due to mental errors. Pride will also need a short learning curve if the Panthers are going to give him any significant amount of playing time.
