For this week’s picks, we take a couple franchise running backs – one going Over, one going Under – an elite receiver showing why he’s elite, a MVP showing how to elongate drives against a division opponent, and a revenge play touchdown.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon OVER 47.5 rushing yards (-115)
Mixon has topped this number every time he has had more than 10 carries in his last nine games against the Steelers. The reason this number is so low is because he hasn’t hit more than 10 rushes in the last two meetings with Pittsburgh. With Joe Burrow gone and the Bengals still in playoff consideration, teams tend to lean on those who have done it before. Mixon could get 20 carries in this game. If so, it’s hard not to beat this number.
4
Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry UNDER 64.5 rushing yards (-115)
In his last two games, the Titans tried to feed Henry to the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans. The result was 33 carries for 43 yards. Given that the Titans aren’t shy about running Henry, defenses have responded by flooding the box to stop him and force the Titans to beat them through the air. Henry may need 20 carries to hit this number and Tennessee can’t afford to keep pushing a button that doesn’t work.
3
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes OVER 18.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Las Vegas Raiders will come after Mahomes when they sense weakness, and the Chiefs offense has been weak by Mahomes’ standards. He has topped this number in three of their last four meeting, and the only the game he didn’t took three kneel-downs to lower his rushing number. He may well have a couple more late-game kneel-downs in him, but he will have the one wide-open scramble needed to top this number.
2
Minnesota Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson scores a touchdown (+150)
The Detroit Lions determined that Hockenson wasn’t a long-term financial commitment they were willing to make and traded him to the Vikings. He didn’t score in his first meeting with his former team, but he caught six passes for 77 yards. The Vikings are likely to be behind at some point and required to throw. Even if it’s in garbage time, revenge touchdown footballs come how with a player.
1
Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb OVER 89.5 receiving yards (-115)
Lamb hasn’t been targeted less than nine times in the last eight games. That means you’re expected to make plays on a regular basis, whether your team is ahead or behind. There are too many scenarios in a Cowboys-Dolphins matchup that will require one team to take charge. If Dallas is ahead, it will be because of Lamb. The best thing here is if Dallas gets behind by double digits and has to pass, which will require Lamb. Barring injury, it will be hard for Lamb not to top this big number.
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