We made it, folks.
Saturday morning means we get to bet on a real, live college football for the first time in decades—or at least what feels like decades.
Week 0 offers up plenty of matchups this year, starting with Northwestern vs. Nebraska in Ireland. Sure, sending these two Big Ten teams abroad might not be the most exciting way to grow the game, but it does allow us to watch a Power 5 conference matchup with breakfast.
So here we go. Time to bet (and live bet) on the first slate of the season. Below you’ll find the three bets we’re most confident in. All odds via Tipico.
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Nebraska vs. Northwestern, Under 51.5
Which sounds more like the behavior of a maniac: betting the under on the first game of the first College Football Saturday of the season or fading both the public and the sharp money?
Nebraska and Northwestern are kicking off the year in Ireland with a pretty high point total. Let’s consider a few things:
- Only once in the last three matchups between these schools did the two teams combine for 50+ points.
- 79% of the bets placed on the point total and 71% of the money wagered is on the under, per Action Network
- The under is 36-21-1 (63.2%) in neutral site games over the last five years.
You know what’s worse than rooting for the under on the first Saturday game of season? Losing a bet on the first Saturday game of the season.
Duquesne +38.5 at Florida State
Originally this was going to be a parlay with Florida A&M at UNC, but well…
Florida A&M is traveling to play UNC on Saturday, school tells @AlisonPosey14, who reports FAMU will be w/out 20 players & will only have 7 offensive linemen available
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 26, 2022
So, yeah, let’s focus on different Florida team that should be pretty bad. Picked to finish third-last in the ACC, Florida State is in for another rebuilding year. But more than that, this lopsided spread has a bit of history behind it, per Action Network. Teams favored by 30 points or more are just 35-49 (41.7%) ATS in their season openers.
Florida State has also been the least profitable team in the ACC over the last five years, going 21-34-3 ATS.
We can feel pretty confident fading FSU here.
Hawai'i +9.5 vs. Vanderbilt
The question to ask here isn’t “how good is Hawai’i?” so much as “how bad is Vanderbilt?”
Typically, pretty bad! Even though the SEC program has four straight wins against the spread dating back to last season, playing at Hawai’i to open the year is a nightmare for just about any school.
Teams are 1-7-1 ATS since 2005 when starting their season on the islands. Add in the return of school legend Timmy Chang as head coach and Hawai’i (+9.5) at home feels pretty safe. Even +280 on the moneyline isn’t that farfetched, though we’re not ready to recommend it.
Still, it’s a Hawai’i game after dark. Of course were betting on it.
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