ANALYSIS — With less than a year to go, the 2026 midterm elections are at a crossroads.
Emboldened by the 2024 election results that resulted in full GOP control of Washington, Republicans began the year on a political high, but it’s been rough going since then. President Donald Trump’s job ratings have slipped back into mediocrity, and Democrats have consistently overperformed in elections around the country.
It’s possible that voter sentiment will improve from a rebounding economy, helping Republicans narrowly salvage their majorities in Congress. But what’s more likely is the political environment gets worse for the GOP, allowing Democrats to experience sizable midterm gains.
While it’s wise to be open-minded about a wide range of outcomes, particularly more than 10 months from an election, there are two most likely scenarios for 2026.
A GOP squeaker
Republicans are aware of the historical midterm trends: In recent weeks, both Speaker Mike Johnson and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson have mentioned defying them. The president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections, and the fewest number of seats lost in those cycles were four (1962) and five (1986). House Republicans can’t afford to lose more than two next year.
But the conditions during the two midterm outliers, 2002 and 1998, don’t match the current environment.
In 2002, Republicans gained eight House seats, bolstered by President George W. Bush’s 68 percent job approval rating during the first midterm. And Democrats gained five House seats in 1998, when President Bill Clinton’s job approval was at 66 percent. Trump’s job approval rating is 43 percent, according to Nate Silver’s national average.
Even if Trump were to abandon his tariffs and the economy bounces back, his job approval is unlikely to get much higher. That’s just not what happens to presidents of either party at a similar point. Typically, presidents become less popular as midterms approach. More specifically, the average drop is 8 points off their job approval rating.
The most encouraging midterm scenario for Republicans might also be the most recent. President Joe Biden’s job approval rating was 40 percent for the 2022 elections, according to Gallup, and yet Democrats lost a modest nine House seats and even gained a Senate seat. The Republican gains were, of course, enough for the House majority, but the cycle could have been much worse for Democrats given Biden’s political condition. This cycle, a nine-seat loss might be enough for Republicans to hold on to the House if the outstanding redistricting efforts break in their party’s favor. And anything less than a four-seat Democratic gain in the Senate would preserve GOP control of that chamber.
But, on the current trajectory, the midterms are likely to get more difficult for Republicans.
A GOP wipeout
It’s clear that GOP strategists believe the current political environment is poor when a common refrain heard is “There’s still time.” Not only should that be added to the list of “Things Losing Candidates Say,” but there’s little evidence that time will help Republicans since the current trend line is working against them.
Trump’s job approval rating has been on a steady decline from 52 percent at the beginning of his term to 43 percent now, according to Nate Silver. That tracks closely with his previous White House stint, when his approval rating was at 38 percent during the 2018 midterms, according to Gallup, and Democrats had a net gain of 41 seats. Over those four years in office, his popularity didn’t improve demonstrably.
Democrats currently have a narrow advantage on the generic ballot, 44 percent to 41 percent, according to the Decision Desk HQ average. And, maybe more importantly, they’ve been consistently overperforming their 2024 margins in a variety of real races and places, from coast to coast, over the past year. Their candidates overperformed in Democratic areas (Virginia, New Jersey, California), Republican areas (Tennessee’s 7th District, Florida’s 1st and 6th) and swing areas (Georgia).
Republicans can try to explain away individual contests, but the trend is clear. And even the Republican wins in 2025 should be concerning for the party because of the reduced margins, sometimes even with good turnout.
A similar overperformance in November would deliver the House to Democrats with plenty of seats to spare and put the Senate within reach. Republicans should win GOP-leaning states such as Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Alaska under normal political conditions. But if 2026 is extraordinary for Democrats, the elections could feel closer to 2018, 2010 or 2006 than to 2022.
More than the president literally putting his name on midterm ballots as he suggested this week, Republicans need Trump’s political standing to improve. They need voters to feel better about the economy, cost of living and direction of the country with Republicans in power. Time is running out on their ability to blame Barack Obama for the high cost of health care and Biden for the economy, particularly when both are so far out of the public eye.
There are plenty of other potential pitfalls for the GOP, including the rising costs of health care (especially if the Affordable Care Act subsidies expire and there’s no alternative), Trump’s immigration tactics and retribution tour, the Epstein files, the president’s age, a war with Venezuela that no one knew was necessary and a White House ballroom no one knew was needed. Even good economic news would have a tough time cutting through all the other noise.
The bottom line is that the Republican Party doesn’t do well in elections in which President Donald Trump is the focus. And by nature of his personality and being the incumbent president, the GOP is on track for that scenario to repeat itself. When recent outcomes match up with historical trends, it’s up to the other party to demonstrate how this cycle is going to be an aberration.
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