These are certainly uncertain times. That fact is reflected in the daily “will they or won’t they” surrounding college football’s status for the fall. While some conferences such as the Ivy League, the Big Sky, the Mountain West, the MAC and the Missouri Valley Football Conference have delayed seasons until the fall, rumors abound about the Power 5 conferences. On Monday it was first reported that the Big Ten was about to push the fall season into the spring, but later in the day contradictory reporting indicated that no decisions had been made and if anything another delay to the start of football was in the works.
All this uncertainty has crept into the draft evaluation world. In normal times, #DraftTwitter would be abuzz with discussions about the top players at each position, potential risers and fallers, and the daily mock drafts posted in various corners of the internet. Instead we are left to wonder about how this draft cycle might look.
Interestingly enough, a player that fit the riser mold from last year’s draft, rising all the way to the first overall selection, touched off a discussion after posting this on social media:
Burrow is exactly right. This time last season, he was viewed as a fringe draftable selection, even though some were in his corner. Without his final year at LSU, he never would have blossomed into the guy coming off the board with the first pick in the draft.
This spurred Thor Nystrom, who covers football for Rotoworld, to ask this question on social media:
Here are some potential answers to that question.
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
We begin with the quarterback position, which has generated a number of draft risers over the past few cycles. Before Burrow there was Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield, and Mitchell Trubisky, and Patrick Mahomes, and Robert Griffin III, and the list goes on. Because of the importance of the position, and the fact that some college quarterbacks have to wait their turn to start, this position provides many players the chance to turn a solid season into the rocketship up the board.
Trey Lance faces a difficult proposition at the moment. A rising redshirt sophomore, Lance was lumped in with quarterbacks such as Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence immediately upon the completion of the 2020 NFL Draft, and with good reason. In his first year as a starter he threw for 28 touchdowns without a single interception, and led the Bison to a third-straight FCS National Championship, following in the wake of QBs such as Carson Wentz and Easton Stick before him.
That had many, including Mel Kiper Jr., the godfather of draft coverage, to put Lance atop their “way too early” rankings back in early May. With a solid redshirt sophomore season, could Lance decide to enter the draft? He would be tested early, with a game at Oregon to start the year.
But now? The MVFC pushed their season to the spring, and Lance faces a dilemma. Does he opt-out of the season and prepare for the draft now, hoping one good year of film is enough? Does he try and transfer? There are some good options, but what happens if those schools do not have football in the fall? Or does he simply remain at NDSU and look to the 2020 spring season, and then enter the draft for 2021?
Lance was in a great position entering this fall. Now he has some decisions to make.
K.J. Costello, QB, Mississippi State
Suddenly, the Air Raid is cool.
Some of the more well-known quarterbacks in the NFL today have their roots in the system. The two of the last three first overall draft picks came from such an offense, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. Some of the concepts that Joe Burrow was running last season can be traced to that offensive school of thought. Of course Patrick Mahomes has his own background in the Air Raid offense.
When you think of that system, a name that comes to mind is Mike Leach. Two of his recent QBs are currently in the league, Gardner Minshew as the starter in Jacksonville, and Anthony Gordon, who went undrafted in 2020 but has a very real shot to stick in Seattle as a backup.
Leach has taken the pirate flag down to Starksville, as the new head coach of Mississippi State. The quotable head coach is not the only new face in town, as joining him on campus is K.J. Costello, a transfer in from Stanford. Over three years as the starter for the Stanford Cardinal Costello completed 63.5% of his passes for 5,834 yards and 46 touchdowns, against 16 interceptions. He flashes pro potential, but might need one more big year to truly improve his draft stock. That lies in front of him given the opportunity Leach’s offense presents – last year Gordon averaged a whopping 53 passing attempts a game – but without a season in 2020, Costello might not get that chance to put such a season, and all those passing reps, on film.
Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
As we start thinking of more dark horse options for that QB who rises in the process, we arrive at Kyle Trask from Florida. Trask certainly looks the part of a potential first-round quarterback. He checks the arm and size boxes with ease. Trask also plays with aggression, and is willing to challenge some of the tighter throwing windows that other quarterbacks avoid.
Where he stands to improve is in how he handles the pocket. He struggles when pressured and some of his biggest mistakes on the field stem from how he responds to duress when dropping to throw. If he could learn how to slide and avoid pressure with subtlety, that would go a long way towards proving to scouts that he could stand up to the kinds of pressure situations he’d face in the NFL.
The problem is, you cannot replicate those moments without live game reps. Granted, the SEC is aiming to play football this fall, but should that situation change, or if a season gets cut short, Trask might be impacted the most by such a decision.
Tanner Morgan, QB, Minnesota
Beyond K.J. Costello and Kyle Trask, another darkhorse contender for the quarterback rise is Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan. The quarterback was a big part of Minnesota’s impressive run last year, as the sophomore passer completed 66% of his throws for 3,253 yards and 30 touchdowns, with just seven interceptions.
What clicked for Morgan was two-fold. First, when he dropped to throw he enjoyed having two tremendous talents to target in the passing game: Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman. Second, the offense was very quarterback friendly, with an emphasis on run/pass option designs that put defenders into conflict as well as some simplified route structures that gave Morgan some defined reads both pre-snap and post-snap.
However, some things have changed. Johnson, who showed first-round talent before falling in the draft, is now catching passes from Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. Bateman, who entered this draft cycle as another first-round player, decided to opt-out a week ago. If the Big Ten proceeds with football, Morgan will have a change to put more on his shoulders and that would really catch the eye of NFL evaluators. That, coupled with some schematic growth in the offense, could give Morgan the boost up draft boards we saw from Burrow a season ago. Could he get all the way to 1.01? That seems like a stretch, but we said the same things about Burrow this time last year.
Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
Moving away from the passers, now we can talk about some guys who spend their time getting after the guys throwing the ball. We start with Quincy Roche, who racked up 13 sacks last season for Temple on his way to being named the American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year. He left Philadelphia behind this offseason, transferring to the ACC and the University of Miami.
That paired him with Gregory Rousseau, one of the other elite EDGE prospects in the upcoming draft class. Instead of facing double-teams and protections slid his way on every pass rushing opportunity, the presence of Rousseau meant some one-on-one chances for Roche in the season ahead, opportunities to add to those sack numbers and show NFL scouts he is the guy to build a defensive front around.
Now, Rousseau has opted out, meaning if the season goes forward Roche now has to handle the bulk of the pass rush load for the Hurricanes on his own. This, still, is a great opportunity for him. If he can demonstrate that the 13 sacks were a function of his talent and prowess as a pass rusher – and not the level of competition in the AAC – that would go a huge way towards moving him to the top of the draft. However, if the season does not go ahead as planned, he’ll miss out on what could have been a big final college season.
Tyreke Smith, EDGE, Ohio State
Joey Bosa. Nick Bosa. Chase Young. The “who’s who” of pass rushers to come out of Ohio State in the past few seasons is impressive. One could make the case that over the past five seasons, Ohio State has become EDGEU.
Tyreke Smith hopes to add his name to that venerable roster at the end of this season. During his time in Columbus, the pass rusher has notched just three sacks, all of which came last season operating across from Young. But if you are hoping that he makes such a leap this year, there is a lot to build a case upon based on his film. Kyle Crabbs, who covers the draft year-round for The Draft Network, has this to say about the pass rusher:
In clear possession of all of the needed physical traits to be an NFL defender and perform at a high level. There’s needed polish to put onto his game but as a complimentary pass rusher with the Buckeyes last season, he flashed plenty of speed to power ability, length and a fair level of versatility. He was used against Clemson as a spy defender with frequency, dropping off the LOS and looking to mirror the quarterback. He’s at his best with his hands established on the frame of blockers, where he’ll be able to collapse them with power and soften his angles in pursuit. Could be a feasible candidate to play in either odd or even fronts.
It is hard to see, however, Smith cracking the first round without a season in 2020. If the Big Ten decides to push the season to the spring, Smith might face a very difficult decision.
Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
Another Big Ten pass rusher that would be impacted by a delay of the 2020 season to the fall is Michigan’s Kwity Paye. With the departure of Josh Uche to the New England Patriots, the Wolverines are looking to Paye and Aidan Hutchinson as the cornerstones of their pass rush in 2020. A bigger role would showcase what Paye brings to the table as an EDGE player.
What can he do? Last season Paye set a career-high mark with 6.5 sacks along with 12.5 tackles for a loss, appearing in 12 games along the Michigan defensive line. Paye is one of college football’s “freak” athletes, featured in the annual must-read from Bruce Feldman at The Athletic. In fact, he topped the list of 50 players, and in support of the ranking Feldman wrote:
He clocked the second-best 3-cone time on the team at a blistering 6.37 seconds, which would have topped anyone at the 2020 combine. Paye’s 40 is also moving at 4.57, with a solid 34-inch vertical and 30 reps on the bench press. Paye’s 40 time and 4.15 pro shuttle time are better than any D-lineman or edge player who tested at the 2020 combine. His 11.3 time in the 60-yard shuttle is also elite.
Now if Paye is forced into simply working out at the Scouting Combine next winter, those types of testing results could be enough to put him in the first round. But it sure would be nice if he had a year of dominant film available to pair with such impressive testing numbers.
Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama
In his first two years on campus, linebacker Dylan Moses carved out a big role at hte heart of Alabama’s defense. As a freshman in 2017 he played in 11 games, and was named to the SEC All-Freshman team after notching 30 tackles and grabbing an interception. A foot injury kept him out of the college football playoffs, but he built on his freshman year to have a huge sophomore season.
In 2018, Moses was a finalist for the Butkus Award, recording a team-high 86 tackles, including ten for a loss. He earned second team All-SEC honors and continually showed on film the athleticism and versatility that you need from a modern linebacker. Moses has the ability to work downhill against the run but also the athleticism to carry tight ends and running backs on vertical routes up seams, necessary traits to stay on the field in third down situations.
However, Moses lost his entire 2019 campaign to an injury suffered in pre-season camp. He torn an ACL, necessitating surgery and ending his year before it began. But he is ready to go for the year ahead, and with another strong season like 2018, he would be in position to be one of the first linebackers taken in the draft. Moses might be one of the players who would lose the most if the season is cut short, or pushed off until the spring.
