There have been 167 Grand Nationals since an enterprising Merseyside hotelier called William Lynn decided that staging a horse race might be a good way to fill a few rooms. For many millions of people in Britain and around the world, it has become an annual point of contact with racing, a brief, intense attempt to follow their runners around Aintree amid the familiar havoc and uncertainty. But there has never been a renewal quite like this one. This year, uniquely, we will look for a set of colours to follow a jockey, rather than the horse underneath.
Even if he falls off at the first of the 30 fences, this will be remembered as the ‘McCoy Grand National’. If Tony McCoy were to win aboard Shutthefrontdoor, however, the race could stand for all time as the finest concluding flourish to any great sporting career. It is an immense achievement to reach the pinnacle of any major professional sport, and harder still to defend your pre-eminence over many years.
Getting out at the very top, though, can be the most difficult trick of all. John Elway, one of the great NFL quarterbacks, managed to pull it off, though his retirement was not officially confirmed until three months after his second win in the Super Bowl at the age of 38. Lou Gehrig’s retirement from baseball, and the speech at Yankee Stadium when he described himself as the “luckiest man on the face of the earth”, is still perhaps the most famous departure that American sport has seen.
So many great boxers have taken one fight too many. No legend of tennis or golf has ever dominated their sport in the manner of McCoy, nor called it a day on the spot after winning Wimbledon or the Open. Even Pelé retired twice, and eventually took his leave in an exhibition game in which he played for both teams. McCoy, whose career total of more than 4,000 winners is nearly 1,500 ahead of any other rider in National Hunt history, could be about to ride into retirement aboard a winner in the most famous and demanding race in the world.
Despite Shutthefrontdoor’s position at the head of the market, victory for McCoy remains an unlikely outcome. His horse has as much chance as any in the 39-runner field, but no more. It will start as favourite simply because McCoy is on top, and very few backers, from the regular punters to the once-a-year dabblers, will not have something on Shutthefrontdoor, just in case.
It is possible that the wave of public support for what may prove to be McCoy’s final mount will take his starting price down towards the modern-day record of 7-2, which was Red Rum’s SP in 1975 when, attempting to win the National three times in a row, he finished second behind L’Escargot. For Britain’s betting industry, victory for Shutthefrontdoor is a potential disaster, and one that has been looming ever since McCoy announced in mid-February that this would be his last season in the saddle.
The PR reps for the major betting firms have been playing McCoy bingo this week, competing to come up with the highest estimate of the loss to the industry if Shutthefrontdoor goes in. It is hard to know for sure what true figure might be, but the main bookmakers will also be hedging significant sums in the Aintree betting ring to reduce his starting price, in an attempt to limit the damage as much as possible.
“I think the loss would be upwards of £30m across the industry,” David Williams, spokesman for Ladbrokes, said on Friday, “but it depends on whether the betting really does turn into a one-horse story. If it does, that figure could be on the conservative side.
“If ever Red Rum’s price of 7-2 is going to be challenged, it is surely going to be this year. Grand Nationals generally have a number of stories, but there is only one story betting-wise this year, and nothing to conflict with the gamble on Shutthefrontdoor. We already know what’s going to be on the front and back of every paper and what is going to be leading every bulletin. If that is mirrored in punter activity, it is conceivable that it will go as short as Red Rum.
“Punters are backing McCoy and not the horse. If this were not a historic year with McCoy retiring, would this horse be a single-figure price? I think it’s unlikely. But it’s supply and demand, and everyone will want to back this combination.”
No horse should ever start at 7-2 to win a Grand National. It was designed to be the most wildly unpredictable race of all, and in any other year, or with any other jockey, Shutthefrontdoor would be a 10-1 chance. For all his brilliance through the years and his famous never-say-die attitude, the true chance that Tony McCoy will draw down the curtain on his extraordinary career by riding the Grand National winner is no better than 10%.
What his backers can be certain about, though, is that good fortune has been on McCoy’s side for two decades. In a brutally demanding sport, he has suffered the inevitable falls and injuries without ever missing enough of a season to relinquish his status as champion jockey. He has been defying the odds for 20 years, to write records into the books that, in all likelihood, no other rider will ever approach. Now he needs to do so just one last time.
