Caveat emptor, quia ignorare non debuit quod jus alienum emit.
Caveat emptor has become a proverb in the English language what stands for the proposition of “let the buyer beware.” However, it is a short form gleamed from that entire phrase above, which translated states as follows: Let a purchaser beware, for he ought not to be ignorant of the nature of the property which he is buying from another party.”
Not to put my lawyer hat on for too long, but caveat emptor used to be the standard basis of contract law, and is still generally in effect absent a legally binding warranty, or fraud on the part of the seller. Absent those factors, the it is up to the buyer to make sure that they are getting what they paid for.
That principle can certainly be used when discussing NFL free agency. In a few days 32 football organizations are going to dive into the open market and put millions and millions of dollars into the hands of players who – potentially – could help deliver a Super Bowl title. Yet, with these moves comes a certain level of risk with each transaction, and given the money involved, some teams may overpay for players when better value is to be found elsewhere.
Consider the NFL’s model franchise: The New England Patriots. Every year Bill Belichick avoids the primary free agency market, and looks to add players in the secondary or tertiary part of free agency, seeking players that fit what the Patriots do schematically rather than overpaying for players that not be the perfect piece in the machine. Of course, there are exceptions, such as Stephon Gilmore, but for every transaction like that there are others which initially fall under the radar, but end up playing a huge role in New England. Players such as Mike Vrabel, David Patten, Rob Nikovich, and Rodney Harrison.
With that in mind, let’s look at a handful of players who might command big deals over the next week or so, but teams looking to sign them should keep those words in mind: caveat emptor.
Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
The veteran quarterback is largely considered to be one of the top free agents available this off-season, not just at the quarterback position but league-wide. But taking a chance on Rivers does not come without a good share of risks, and any team that brings him into the fold needs to be clear about where he currently is as a quarterback.
Two seasons ago Rivers led the Chargers to the playoffs, and he was playing perhaps some of his best football over the past few years of his career. Two areas that really stood out with him during the 2018-2019 season were his deep passing numbers as well as his ability to handle and respond to pressure. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Rivers had an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 71.6%, which was fifth-best in the league. Only Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Marcus Mariota and Matt Ryan fared better in that statistic.
Additionally, Rivers posted the eighth-best ACP of 46.3% on downfield throws (defined as 20 yards or more) in the league. On those throws Rivers also put up an NFL passer rating of 90.7.
Unfortunately, Rivers took a step in both of those categories last season. When pressured, Rivers saw his ACP drop to 65.3%, which was just tenth-best in the league. He threw nine touchdowns and nine interceptions when he was under duress. The deep passing game? That number dropped as well, as he put up an ACP of 41.8% and threw five touchdowns – against nine interceptions – when throwing downfield.
Something that might allow teams to talk themselves into Rivers is what he did when he was kept clean, and this speaks to why buyers need to beware when signing him. Throwing from a clean pocket last year Rivers had an ACP of 81.1%, which was seventh-best in the league. Only Cousins, Brees, Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Darnold fared better. Rivers also threw for eight touchdowns, without an interception, when not pressured.
So the organization that signs Rivers will want to make sure they have an offensive line that will keep him clean and put him in position to replicate those numbers from 2019. That requires looking beyond just the quarterback position, and evaluating the entirety of the offense around him. For some teams this will still make sense, but organizations thinking about bringing him in need to have a clear head – and pocket – when considering such a move.
Brandon Schreff, OG, Washington Redskins
A few days ago I made the case that the Seattle Seahawks needed to try and find a way to sign Schreff, the stout right guard currently playing for the Washington Redskins.
Even with making that recommendation, it does not mean that it comes without a certain level of risk.
In what is a thin guard market this off-season, Joe Thuney and Schreff seem to be the cream of the crop. Other players, such as Graham Glasgow and Gret Van Roten, are generating interest as free agency beckons. But Thuney and Schreff are going to garner the most attention. According to Sportrac.com, Schreff could be looking at a market value of $12.4 million dollars per year, given recent deals given to guards such as Andrew Norewll, Cordy Glenn, Zack Martin and Trai Turner.
Schreff may command that on the open market, but teams should go into such a deal wide-eyed. First up are injury concerns. Schreff missed half of the 2018 season with a torn pectoral muscle, and last year he was placed on injured reserve in December due to shoulder and elbow injuries. Schreff has also allowed 13 sacks over his 65 games played in the NFL. Now, not all sacks are created equal and some of those could be attributed to him but have other reasons for the quarterback hitting the turf, but it is something to consider.
(For comparison’s sake, Thuney has allowed seven sacks over 64 regular season games, and has never givens up a sack in ten post-season games).
Schreff is still a top-flight guard, and should command a great deal of interest on the open market. But teams should do their due diligence on him, and also explore whether some of the other guards such as Thuney, Glasgow or Van Roten make more sense.
Hunter Henry, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
Having also made the case that the New England Patriots should try and acquire the current Chargers’ tight end, it is time to add some critical caveats to that recommendation.
Granted, the upcoming rookie class of tight ends might not be the strongest group of players. Adam Trautman, the small school tight end from the University of Dayton, does have some promise. In addition to Dayton players such as Cole Kmet, Thaddeus Moss, Albert Okwuegbunam, Jared Pinkney and Hunter Bryant seem to have NFL futures in front of them. However, tight end is one of the more difficult positions in terms of making the transition from the college game to the pro game. From learning the blocking schemes and handling that aspect of the game to mastering a route tree against NFL secondaries, tight ends are often slow to contribute as rookies.
That will lead teams who need immediate contributions at the position – such as the Patriots – to the free agency markets. But the two big players there, Henry and Austin Hooper (more on him in a second) come with question marks. For Henry, it is his injury history. His second season in the NFL ended early, with a knee injury and a lacerated kidney. He came back for OTAs the next year, but tore his ACL and missed the entire regular season, returning for the Chargers’ Divisional Round meeting with the Patriots. Then last year Henry suffered a tibia plateau fracture to his left knee and missed the first five games of the season.
Henry might very well be the most complete and dynamic tight end available through both free agency and the draft. But he does not come without risk. The team that signs him would be wise to not place all of their eggs in the Henry basket, and sign and/or draft another tight end as a viable Plan B should Henry miss time in the year ahead. That is, of course, provided the Chargers do not simply use the franchise tag on the TE.
Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Remember, part of the consideration here is value. Will it be worth paying what some of these players are going to command on the open market, given some of the risk factors or what they bring to the table on the field?
A driver for this discussion is perhaps this piece from Tom Pelissero from NFL.com. In it, Pelissero argues that Hooper might command a deal upwards of $10 million per year in free agency. This is backed up by the folks over at Sportrac, who estimate that Hooper could see a contract with an average annual value of $9.9 million dollars, based on recent deals given to Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed, Zach Ertz and Trey Burton.
But is Hooper worth that? Pure economics might dictate that he is. Given the supply and demand at the position (as outlined previously when discussing Hunter Henry) Hooper might seem like a smart play. After all, he has posted back-to-back 70-catch seasons, and also can function as an in-line tight end with solid blocking chops.
But Hooper is more of a complementary piece rather than a tight end on par with Kelce, Ertz and others. He is adept at finding soft areas in zone coverage and sitting down, making himself available for his quarterback, but he is not exactly the mismatch type tight end that modern NFL offenses are running their passing games through. According to PFF, Hooper gained 75.5% of his receiving production on targets defined as holes in zones or underneath the defense, which is the highest percentage in the league.
What does this mean? The team that signs Hooper needs to have additional pieces around him to make the production worth the expense. Finally, consider this: Again, PFF grades are but one data point, but since 2016 Hooper has just a 58.9 receiving grade against single coverage. If you’re asking him to be the focal point, you might be disappointed. But as a part of a balanced offensive approach, then it makes sense.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
We have arrived at the “running backs don’t matter” portion of the proceedings.
While I do not strictly adhere to that principle, I again remind you dear reader that we are talking about value in free agency in this list.
The Tennessee Titans rode Henry to an AFC Championship Game a year ago, and the running back turned in a career year. He posted 1,540 yards on the ground with 16 touchdowns and averaged 102.7 yards per game, numbers which are all career highs for him. He also contributed in the passing game, catching 18 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns, with that pair of TDs also a career high for him. In the playoffs? Henry had 182 yards rushing and a touchdown in Tennessee’s upset of the New England Patriots, and 195 yards rushing in Tennessee’s upset of the Baltimore Ravens.
And yet…
Part of the basis for the idea that “running backs don’t matter” – which is a bumper sticker-type slogan that really simplifies the issue – is that in the realm of Expected Points Added (with scoring points the goal of the sport), the passing game is still king. In that upset of the Patriots? In EPA terms Henry was not the whole reason the Titans won that game. Thanks to a handy tool created by Ben Baldwin, who covers the league for The Athletic – Seattle, we know that Tennessee’s EPA per play on passing plays was 0.07. On rushing plays? 0.08. Ryan Tannehill’s EPA per play was 0.08 on each of his dropbacks, while Henry’s EPA per play was 0.07 on his 35 carries.
The point? Even with these prodigious numbers Henry was just a part of Tennessee’s offense, and not their entire offense. So overpaying him on the open market, despite his production last season, might not be the best means of putting your offense in position to put points on the board. Another way to look at this is in terms of Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) from Football Outsiders. Last year the Titans’ offense had a rushing DVOA of 7.9%, which was fifth in the league. Their passing game? It posted a DVOA of 29.6%.
Passing is king.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Everything that was just said about Derrick Henry is applicable here.
The fact of the matter is that running backs do not have the value they once did in the modern NFL. In today’s game where 30 of the 32 teams threw the football more than 51% of the time, wide receivers and quarterbacks have more opportunities to impact the game than running backs do. Gordon’s own offense, the Los Angeles Chargers, threw the football on more than 63% of their offensive snaps. Yes, game script and game situation comes into play, but when roughly two-thirds of your offense is focused on the pass, what is the true value of the RB?
A case can be made that true three-down backs that can contribute in the passing game still are to be valued, and Gordon can make the case that he is such a player. After all, Gordon has seen 50 passing targets or more in each of the last four seasons, and in 2017 he saw a career high 83 targets in the passing game. That year he caught 58 of those targets for 476 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 8.2 yards per reception. In 2016 he averaged 10.2 yards per reception. Those are game-impacting type numbers, which make the case for Gordon being more valuable than some other running backs in free agency *stares in the direction of Derrick Henry*.
Even still, there are injury concerns with Gordon. He has played just one full season – back in 2017 – and has a long list of lower body injuries. His 2015 season was cut short due to torn knee cartilage. He missed the final three games of the 2016 season with hip and knee injuries. Finally, he missed time in 2019 with knee and thigh injuries.
Gordon may be more of a modern NFL running back, but when it comes to his value, it might be more depressed in the current game than he would like. Again, buyer beware.
Logan Ryan, CB, Tennessee Titans
Logan Ryan is a solid NFL slot cornerback.
When it comes to free agency, however, there are some areas of concern for a team looking to acquire Ryan to bolster their cornerback corps. Last season Ryan notched five interceptions, four coming in the regular season and one in the playoffs, and those numbers would lead you to believe that Ryan is among the game’s elite slot cornerbacks.
However, there are other numbers to keep in mind when considering Ryan during free agency. According to PFF’s charting data, he was targeted 114 times this past season, which is most among cornerbacks in the NFL. That might come with the territory, given how often teams target their slot receivers, but he also gave up 80 receptions, again the most in the NFL. On those targets Ryan surrendered a passer rating of 97.8, and he gave up 11.8 yards per reception – a first down per catch.
In their two meetings against the Kansas City Chiefs, Ryan was targeted early and often. The result? 13 receptions for 202 yards and three touchdowns. Furthermore, the 11.8 yards per reception he surrendered in the regular season jumped to 13.8 in the postseason.
Again, Ryan is a solid option at slot corner, but if you are going to sign him you are going to want to make sure you have solid options on the boundary as well as at the safety spots. Ryan had 17 missed tackles in 2019, a career high, and he gave up a career-high 426 yards after the catch as a result. Make sure your defense is in position to mitigate potential damage.
Jamie Collins Sr., LB, New England Patriots
The linebacker had a career resurgence last season in New England, as part of the Patriots’ impressive defensive unit. Collins notched 50 solo tackles, forced three fumbles (tied for first among linebackers), had three interceptions (tied for third among linebackers) and also tallied eight sacks. All very impressive numbers in his return to Foxboro.
Furthermore, those numbers were in line with what Collins did during his first stint in the AFC East. Drafted in the second round out of Southern Mississippi, Bill Belichick relied on Collins as an athletic playmaker off-ball linebacker. But the team traded him to the Cleveland Browns midway through the 2016 season. While in the AFC North, however, Collins struggled. He missed a significant amount of time in 2017 due to injury, and while he led the Browns in tackles in 2018 he could not replicate what he was doing under Belichick, and Cleveland eventually released him.
That enabled Belichick to swoop in and do what he often does, slide a veteran into a role they are best suited for and let them thrive.
So a team that sign Collins is going to first want to evaluate how he was used in New England and make sure that type of off-ball, athletic linebacker is a needed piece in their defense. Teams that already have such a player (looks at the Jacksonville Jaguars) might want to consider a different linebacker in free agency, or teams that are looking to draft such a player (looks at the Las Vegas Raiders) might want to rethink things as well.
Finally, there is another aspect of Collins’ 2019 season to consider. Much like the Patriots themselves, Collins seemed to fade down the stretch. The bulk of his defensive production (six of his sacks, all three interceptions and two of his forced fumbles for example) came in the first half of the season. Was this due to New England’s woes as a team, or is there an underlying issue? Something else to ponder.
Bud Dupree, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Like many of the players mentioned in this piece, Bud Dupree is a very solid player, and he turned in a career year for the Pittsburgh Steelers off the edge in 2019, notching 11.5 sacks.
That does not mean a team should immediately back up the Brinks truck without doing a bit of research.
While Dupree had the highest sack numbers of his career, according to PFF’s charting data he generated pressure on just 10.1% of his pass rushing plays last season, which was not the top number of his career (11.8% back in 2017). That mark of 10.1% tied Dupree for 63rd among the league’s 99 qualifying pass rushers. Dupree’s 28 pressures a season ago placed him behind his teammate T.J. Watt, who led the league in that category, by generating 59 pressures on opposing passers. Dupree benefited a ton from Watt’s presence, and even when teams slid protection towards Watt and left Dupree in a one-on-one situation, he failed to completely capitalize. PFF charted him with a win rate in one-on-one passing situations of just 13.1%, tied for 50th in the league.
If you can pair Dupree with another talented edge rusher, like the Steelers were able to do last season, Dupree can perhaps match some of his production from 2019. But if you cannot guarantee that, you likely will not see him match those numbers from a season ago.
Jadeveon Clowney, EDGE, Seattle Seahawks
This has nothing to do with sack totals, but more with the idea of value.
Clowney notched three sacks last season with the Seattle Seahawks over the course of 13 regular season games, but those sacks do not tell the full story. He was battling a core injury, which will require off-season surgery, but even with that impediment he was able to generate 30 pressures, more than Bud Dupree (as just outlined) and more than DeMarcus Lawrence, both of whom appeared in all 16 games for the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys, respectively.
In addition, Clowney was one of the best in the league at winning on his pass rushing opportunities. According to ESPN’s pass rush win rate, Clowney won 24% of his pass rushing reps last season, defined as beating his blocker withing 2.5 second of the snap. That number was good, according to ESPN’s data, for 7th among EDGE defenders.
This all sounds great, right? So where is the risk?
The cost.
Clowney has indicated, according to reporting from Bleacher Report, that he is seeking a “market-setting” contract:
While Sportrac gives Clowney a market valuation of $20 million per year, Lawrence last season was given a contract with an average yearly salary of $21 million. If Clowney is looking to get north of that number, it might become cost-prohibitive for teams looking to win a title next year to make a run at him. The Baltimore Ravens, who are looking to reach an agreement with current edge rusher Matt Judon, currently have just $30 million in available cap space. Retaining Judon and signing Clowney, for example, might be too much to take on while filling out the rest of the roster and signing draft picks.
That could mean that teams with much more space – but not ready to win immediately – are safer options given the cost.
Clowney is an impressive player, to be sure, but when there are player who can also be productive off the edge but cost more in the $12 to $15 million range (Robert Quinn, Dante Fowler, Jason Pierre-Paul among others) it does raise the question of whether the value is there for teams with tougher cap situations.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
This pains me to write as a Patriots fan, but we need to be open about where Tom Brady is in his career.
Brady can still play the quarterback position at a solid level. But if he is to move to a new organization, the team that signs him is not getting the quarterback he was a few seasons ago. While it is true that the Patriots struggled to put weapons around him last season, despite their best efforts, Brady did see a dramatic drop in his production in 2019.
Let’s look at some numbers from PFF. Last year when pressured Brady posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage of just 59.5, which ranked 21st among qualified passers. That put him below such passers as Kyle Allen, Andy Dalton, Jared Goff and Ryan Fitzpatrick. His overall Adjusted Completion Percentage of 72.9 was 20th in the league, behind Fitzpatrick, Jacoby Brissett, Kyle Allen and Goff. Even when kept clean, his Adjusted Completion Percentage of 76.7 was behind Kyle Allen and Josh Allen, ranking 20th in the league. Brady…was an average quarterback last season.
Plus, he turns 43 in August. I’m 43, I know what 43 feels like. Granted I do not have my own sports performance company behind me and I’m not going to bed at 8 pm each night, but the body does not recover as it used to. We are in uncharted waters with Brady at this point in his career.
Now, perhaps recent reports are true and the free agency market for Brady is not as strong as it has been made out to be over the past few weeks. But if a team takes the plunge and signs Brady to a short-term, but big dollar, deal when free agency starts, there are some big risks at play.
After ten years of practicing law in the Washington, D.C., area, Mark Schofield now dedicates his time to his first love: The game of football. The former college quarterback’s work has been featured a number of places, including The Washington Post, Bleacher Report, SB Nation, Pro Football Weekly and the Matt Waldman Rookie Scouting Portfolio.
