In the world of finance, the adage “past performance is not indicative of future results” serves as a warning for investors. But in politics, past performance can provide a handy measure to assess the vulnerability of members of Congress, especially early in an election cycle.
And 18 months from the 2026 midterms, the first half of our list of the 10 most vulnerable House incumbents is dominated by battleground district members who each won their seats last fall by a percentage point or less. Freshmen are also heavily represented in the Top Five.
The incumbents who occupy the second half of our list are more seasoned and had slightly more comfortable margins of victory last year – with the exception of Rep. Jared Golden. The Maine Democrat secured a fourth term by less than a point in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 9 points. But Golden, along with Nebraska Republican Don Bacon, New York Republican Mike Lawler and Washington Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez, have repeatedly won reelection through the strength of their unique brands, which has helped them overcome the unfriendly political headwinds in their districts.
[Also read: A year and half out, these are the most vulnerable senators of the 2026 cycle]
In addition to examining past performance to identify the at-risk incumbents, CQ Roll Call’s campaign team relied on interviews with party insiders, district dynamics, candidates’ campaign finances, race ratings by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and district-level presidential performance, as calculated by elections analyst Drew Savicki. We only look at incumbents and not at open seats, which could also flip and affect party control.
Our list will surely change over the next year and a half. At this early stage, though, races in several key districts have yet to be set, and several vulnerable members don’t have opponents.
Other factors will also come into play. Our list does not include members from Ohio, where a new map, expected later this cycle, could endanger Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes, potentially providing the GOP with a pair of prime pick-up opportunities.
And demographic shifts could also shape the list. Republicans are hopeful that their path to holding the majority will run through two predominantly Latino border districts in South Texas that have grown more GOP-friendly in recent elections. Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez have managed to navigate the political currents before, but 2026 will test them yet again. Cuellar faces an additional challenge: He was indicted last year over two schemes involving unlawful foreign influence, bribery and money laundering. He has maintained his innocence and is awaiting a criminal trial.
Historically, the party that controls the White House loses seats in the first midterm election after the president’s victory, though that statistic comes with an asterisk this time as it’s technically Trump’s second term. But Democrats express optimism that Trump’s economic policies and what they say is his administration’s chaotic approach to cost-cutting could hurt House Republicans’ chances of maintaining their majority.
Our inaugural 2026 list includes five Republicans and five Democrats, reflecting what is expected to be a close battle for control of the House.
Gray, a freshman and former state legislator, unseated Republican Rep. John Duarte by less than 200 votes in 2024. It was the closest House race in the nation, but voters in the working-class Latino-majority district in the San Joaquin Valley are used to close contests: Gray lost to Duarte by fewer than 600 votes in 2022. A member of the Blue Dog Coalition, Gray was the only Democrat on the Natural Resources Committee to vote for the panel’s portion of the GOP budget reconciliation bill. He’s already drawn a challenge from Republican Javier Lopez, the mayor of Ceres who has Duarte’s support. Gray raised about $400,000 in the first quarter of 2025. Lopez launched his campaign after the filing deadline.
A former police officer, Evans is a top target of Democrats seeking to flip the state’s most competitive district. But before doing battle with the Republican freshman, Democrats face a potentially testy primary to determine their nominee. Former Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who has spoken of her mental health struggles while serving in Congress, and state Rep. Manny Rutinel have declared bids, and the field could grow more crowded. Rutinel reported raising $1.2 million in the first quarter, while Evans brought in about $811,000. (Caraveo entered the race after the filing deadline.) The district, located in a fast-growing region north of Denver, has a large Latino population, and all three candidates have highlighted their Hispanic heritage.
After flipping a seat last fall to help Republicans win the majority, Mackenzie will have to turn out swing voters in the Lehigh Valley-area district to win a second term. Like others on this list, the district has a large Hispanic population, and their support could be critical in this race. A Democratic primary is taking shape between Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure and former utility company executive Carol Obando-Derstine, a onetime aide to former Sen. Bob Casey who has the backing of former Rep. Susan Wild. Mackenzie raised $673,000 during the first quarter, while McClure, who entered the race in February, brought in $142,000. Obando-Derstine declared her bid after the filing deadline.
Miller-Meeks has survived two close elections, including a six-vote win in 2020. Last year, she defeated Democrat Christina Bohannan by 798 votes. Bohannan has signaled she may run a third time against Miller-Meeks, who herself came up short in three House runs before winning in 2020. Trump significantly overperformed the congresswoman in the southeast Iowa district last year, underscoring Miller-Meeks’ potential weakness with the Republican base. She once again faces a challenge from her right from David Pautsch, a Gold Star father who took 44 percent of the vote in their 2024 primary. Miller-Meeks reported raising more than $1 million in the first quarter.
Attorney and Army veteran Derek Tran became the first Vietnamese American to represent Orange County’s Little Saigon after defeating Republican Rep. Michelle Steel by just over 650 votes in 2024. The Democratic freshman does not have a high-profile GOP opponent as yet, though Steel has signaled that she is considering a run. The district, which has an Asian American plurality, is located in one of the nation’s most expensive media markets. Tran raised $460,000 through the end of March, entering the second quarter with $567,000 banked. Steel had $943,000 in her coffers as of March 31.
The 2026 election will test whether Gluesenkamp Pérez can prevail over an opponent who isn’t Joe Kent, the Trump-backed Republican she beat in 2022 and 2024. Trump has tapped Kent as the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, leaving him unlikely to make a third bid for the southwest Washington district. Gluesenkamp Pérez has emphasized her working-class connections and has sided with the GOP on some issues, including a measure that would require proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections. That’s made her a target of some progressives, but at this point, she does not have a Democratic (or Republican) challenger in the all-party primary. Gluesenkamp Pérez reported raising $608,000 in the first quarter of the year.
One of three Republicans representing seats carried by Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election, Lawler can once again expect another tough race. But his moderate brand has found appeal with voters in his Hudson Valley district. He’s likely to face a new opponent next year after running against former Rep. Mondaire Jones in 2024. So far, five Democrats have already announced campaigns against him. He reported raising $1.5 million in the first quarter and entered April with $1.3 million in the bank. Lawler has been considering a gubernatorial run, although Trump endorsed him for reelection this week.
First elected in 2016, Bacon has consistently defied the political underpinnings of his Omaha-centered district. Democrats are hopeful Bacon’s fortunes will turn in 2026. Former state Sen. Tony Vargas isn’t planning a third run for the seat, but business owner Denise Powell and ophthalmologist Mark Johnston have launched campaigns for the Democratic nomination and state Sen. John Cavanaugh told the Nebraska Examiner he is considering a bid. Bacon, who has been critical of Trump’s tariff policies and suggested the president should fire Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, said he’s thinking about retiring, though he raised $910,000 during the first quarter.
Golden’s propensity to buck his own party has helped him continue to get elected in a rural district where Trump increased his support from 2020 to 2024. Still, the nature of the district, which encompasses much of Maine outside the Portland and Augusta areas, makes Golden a top target, and he’ll have to keep counting on drawing crossover support from Trump voters. Former Republican Gov. Paul LePage, who left office as Golden began his House tenure in 2019, announced a campaign this week. Golden is also considered a potential candidate for higher office next year, with an open race for governor and a Senate seat on the ballot in 2026.
Davis held on to his seat last year despite the district swinging in Trump’s favor and the congressman’s own winning margin narrowing from two years earlier. The Air Force veteran and former state senator did face a stronger GOP opponent in 2024, although Democrats sought to tie her to her party’s flawed gubernatorial nominee. Davis was the only Democrat to vote “present” this year on a bill that would restrict transgender students from competing on women’s sports teams. Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson entered the race last month, his second bid for the seat after placing second in the 2022 GOP primary, and more Republicans could follow. Davis raised $328,000 during the first quarter and ended March with $528,000 on hand.
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