PITTSBURGH — Estimates are all over the place on whether Americans are still reluctant, because of the pandemic, to travel for Thanksgiving.
If you believe AAA, 53.4 million will be on the move for the holiday, up 13% from last year and the highest single-year increase since 2005. That level would be within 5% of the travelers in 2019, before the start of the pandemic.
"This Thanksgiving, people are ready to get back to traveling," said Bevi Powell, senior vice president for AAA East Central, which covers Pennsylvania, Kentucky, New York, Ohio and West Virginia.
"With restrictions being lifted and travel more accessible than in 2020, making new holiday memories with family and friends is once again a priority for Americans."
Others aren't so optimistic.
GasBuddy, an online service that helps drivers find the lowest gasoline prices, estimates 32% of Americans will drive for Thanksgiving. That's down from 35% last year and 65% in 2019, largely because gas prices are about $1 more a gallon than last year and could eclipse 2012's all-time Thanksgiving high of $3.44 a gallon. As of Friday, the average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. was $3.413.
"Similarly to last year, motorists are contending with a rise in COVID cases ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday when many drive to celebrate with friends and family. Only this year, we're also just cents away from the highest Thanksgiving gas prices ever recorded," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a news release.
"Americans are responding to the prices by slamming the car door shut and staying off the road."
A survey by the American Hotel and Lodging Association found that 29% of Americans plan to travel for Thanksgiving, up from 21% last year. Those who are traveling say they will take fewer, shorter trips due to gas prices.
"While vaccines have helped travelers feel more comfortable, rising gas prices and continued concerns about the pandemic are making many Americans hesitant to travel during the holidays," Chip Rogers, the association's president and CEO, said in a news release.
As far as the holiday celebration itself, a study by the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center found that many Americans still plan to be careful. Although the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said small family gatherings should be safe, especially for vaccinated people, the survey found that about half will ask guests to wear masks and 75% say they will celebrate only with members of their households.
Air travel is expected to increase over the holiday weekend, and frequent travelers likely are concerned about mass cancellations that some airlines such as American and Southwest experienced in early October. A weather disruption caused dozens of delays and cancellations, stranding airline crews in Florida.
That caused rippling crew shortages system-wide. For its part, American Airlines said it has addressed the problem by increasing its workforce and offering holiday incentive pay to make sure it has adequate staffing.
The airline expects to operate at 92% of its 2019 schedule this week. That's about 5,000 daily flights around the world during the holiday week.
"To ensure we're providing certainty for both our customers and team members, we're doubling down on our efforts related to our schedule and staffing," David Seymour, chief operating officer, said in a letter to employees early this month.
"On the schedule front, we've ensured that November and December are built to meet customer demand and that they are fully supportable by our staffing."
At Pittsburgh International, spokesman Bob Kerlik said the airport didn't have projections for travel this week, but he did point out that traffic had increased substantially in recent months. For October, travel was up 121% compared to 2020, placing it at about 78% of traffic in October 2019, before the pandemic started.
Southwest, American and Delta, which carry a high portion of business travelers in and out of Pittsburgh, all had triple-digit increases for October. With more planes flying now, the number of seats available at Pittsburgh International was up 81% compared with a year ago. That's at least 5 percentage points higher than comparable airports in Columbus, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Milwaukee.
For those flying for the holiday, the Transportation Security Administration reminds travelers to be careful what foods they plan to keep in their carry-on bag.
"If it's a solid item, then it can go through a checkpoint," the agency said in a news release. "However, if you can spill it, spread it, spray it, pump it or pour it, and it's larger than 3.4 ounces, then it should go in a checked bag."
Passengers who don't follow those rules can cause delays for others at security checkpoints. If you're not sure whether something is appropriate, check at "What can I bring" on the TSA website.
And don't pack a gun in your carry-on bag. Jailhouse turkey rarely gets four stars.
Holiday facts
Of course, the traditional root of Thanksgiving is to celebrate the abundant harvest with a huge spread of food, something Americans do with great zest, according to WalletHub. That holiday gluttony is now supplemented by hours of football and shopping on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but the average American will end the holiday with a full stomach.
Across the country, the personal finance website estimates Americans will spend more than $604 million on turkeys alone, buying some 46 million of the birds for the traditional main course. But be careful: House fires related to cooking increase 2 1/2 times on Thanksgiving Day, compared to any other day, causing an estimated $26 million in damage.
Next to eating, shopping has become a huge Thanksgiving weekend activity with the advent of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. In-person shoppers are expected to spend about $312 each over the five-day weekend, a total of more than $186 million.
Last year, consumers pushed themselves away from the table long enough to go online on Thanksgiving to spend $5.1 billion, a new record and 22% above 2019.
With the average Thanksgiving meal checking in at 3,000 to 4,500 calories, shoppers might do well to spend some of that money on exercise equipment.
