Future Forward Party (FFP) leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit appears to have found himself in a tighter spot with every passing week, with a lot of what he says in public furthering his risk of getting into trouble with the law.
The billionaire leader of possibly the fastest growing political party this country's seen in years made his debut with the registration of the FFP last year, promising radical nationwide reforms.
Some FFP sympathisers, however, predicted that changing the status quo would be an uphill task that entailed a tremendous risk to both the party and Mr Thanathorn, and their words have proven prophetic.
At the same time, critics have noted that Mr Thanathorn may have, on several occasions, shot himself in the foot by making public statements which left him skating on thin ice with the law.
Mr Thanathorn was hit by allegations made by the Election Commission (EC) that he still held shares in V-Luck Media Co when he registered as an MP candidate in early February.
Dismissing the accusation, Mr Thanathorn explained that he and his wife transferred their shares to his mother on Jan 8, immediately after returning from Buri Ram to Bangkok following a campaign rally.
The EC confirmed that V-Luck Media Co is registered with the Commerce Ministry's Department of Business development to run a mass communications business.
Mr Thanathorn's assertion that he had offloaded the shares to his mother before he registered as a candidate in the March 24 polls failed to convince the EC.
The precarious legal position that the FFP leader is in stems from his possible breach of Section 98(3) of the constitution, which bars owners and/or shareholders of media and/or publishing firms from running as MPs.
Earlier, Mr Thanathorn's lighthearted story that he shared with the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand (FCCT) raised a certain rival party's hackles when he mentioned that a senior member of a certain party had called his mother and offered to "take care" of the legal cases against Mr Thanathorn if the FFP allowed more than a dozen MPs to vote in support of a prime ministerial candidate.
A political source said it may be unwise to speak about something hard to substantiate, which looks to be a lawsuit waiting to happen.
With the issue of the alleged horse-trading phone call barely dying down, Mr Thanathorn made a fresh revelation that could plunge him deeper into hot water.
The scion of the Thai Summit Group, an auto parts conglomerate, admitted that he had lent his party money to the tune of 105 to 110 million baht to finance its election campaign.
His admission instantly put Mr Thanathorn on the investigation radar of activist Srisuwan Janya, who lost no time petitioning the EC. He said he believed the loan may have violated the organic law on political parties.
Chartchai Na Chiang Mai, a former charter writer, explained that a political party is not a business entity that can legally secure a loan to operate.
As a matter of principle, the parties run on campaign financing amounts that are allocated as government subsidies by the EC, and earned through individual fundraising activities.
The donations must be traceable, as the restrictions imposed by the organic law are intended to prevent financiers with deep pockets from dominating political parties and using them as vehicles to obtain ill-gotten gains from occupying public office, he said.
Chaikasem stands aside
The Pheu Thai Party is now ready to do whatever it takes to stop Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha from reclaiming the premiership as it vies against the rival Palang Pracharath Party in the race to form a new government.
Chaikasem Nitisiri, a Pheu Thai prime ministerial candidate, said that the party is prepared to make considerable concessions regarding other allied parties' demands, even offering up the post of prime minister or parliament president if they agree to join its camp to form a coalition government.
"At least, we get democracy and send Gen Prayut home,'' Mr Chaikasem said, adding that parties which share the same goal must sit down for talks. Right now, Pheu Thai has no conditions, he stressed.
However, a party source admitted that the Pheu Thai-led camp will almost certainly not be able to gather enough votes to secure its choice of prime minister.
With the support of 250 regime-appointed senators, the alliance led by the PPRP, which has proposed Gen Prayut as its prime ministerial candidate, will succeed in forming a coalition government, though with a marginal majority, the source said.
All Pheu Thai can do now is to prepare itself to sit on the opposition benches and hope for better fortune when the next election takes place, the source said.
Pheu Thai MP for Maha Sarakham, Suthin Klangsaeng, said that the party had discussed the formation of a coalition government and agreed that Bhumjaithai and the Democrats are key players.
The PPRP cannot form a coalition government while the Democrats remain unable to settle their internal differences and Bhumjaithai are expected to dilly-dally until the last minute to ensure the best possible deal for cabinet posts, Mr Suthin said.
In light of this, Pheu Thai still retains the hope that the two parties will opt to come on board if the PPRP fails to satisfy their demands, he said.
"Pheu Thai has to be ready to concede everything in order to achieve the aim of preventing Gen Praytut from reclaiming the premiership," Mr Suthin said.
The political scene will heat up from today as the House of Representatives chooses the House Speaker and coalition alliances begin the firm up, Mr Suthin said.
Democrats split four ways
The guessing game is almost over for political enthusiasts after two months of speculating whether the Pheu Thai Party or Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) will come out on top of the coalition battle to form the next government.
Unless there is a last-minute change, the pro-regime PPRP will form a coalition with the support of the Democrats and Bhumjaithai, which have 103 seats combined.
According to political observers, the setting up of a coalition government will take longer than most people expect due to a "lack of unity" within the Democrat Party, which despite a humiliating loss has emerged as one of the kingmakers.
The March 24 poll has left the country's oldest political party in tatters with party members arguing whether it should be part of a government, or become part of the opposition.
The Democrat Party has 52 MPs who can, according to political sources, be roughly divided into four groups.
The first is headed by party secretary-general Chalermchai Sri-on with 16 members and the second group is led by former leader Abhisit Vejjajiva with 12 members.
The third faction is under Pirapan Salirathavibhaga with 10 members and the last camp is known as the "independent" one comprising senior members such as Banyat Bantadtan and Terdpong Chaiyanant.
It is reported that about 80% of MPs want to join the PPRP-led camp on the condition that the party obtain at least four cabinet posts in the so-called A-list ministries, including the Interior Ministry.
Mr Chalermchai's faction is reportedly leaning toward joining the PPRP-led coalition. And as the party secretary-general, he has assumed the role of a coordinator holding talks with Bhumjaithai to form a pact with the Democrats to increase both parties' negotiating power in the formation of a government.
Mr Chalermchai, a veteran politician from Prachuap Khiri Khan, served as the Democrat Party secretary-general when Mr Abhisit was the party leader. He failed to get elected in the March 24 poll.
The party secretary-general is reportedly eyeing the Interior Ministry, which controls local administration mechanisms.
It is widely said that whichever party takes charge of this ministry is guaranteed to have an edge over its rivals in the local elections.
But it remains to be seen whether the Democrats will have their way because PPRP reportedly wants to keep the post for incumbent minister Gen Anupong Paojinda, a close associate of PPRP's prime ministerial candidate, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha.
Moreover, the Democrats are also eyeing the House speaker post, considered the top job in the legislature.
Political sources said the PPRP is unlikely to concede both posts to its partner, regardless of how indispensable it may consider it to be.
Soon the allocation of cabinet posts will be a thing of the past, but the sense of divisiveness among the Democrats will leave a mark on the party, according to political observers.
Even Chuan Leekpai, one of the party's most respected figures, has not been immune to a little bit of criticism, with some members close to the now-defunct People's Democratic Reform Committee, which is said to back Gen Prayut's return to power, having turned against him.
