There is no road map yet in sight for Thailand's return to civilian administration from military rule that has continued for close to five years. It is safe to say that there are many problems to be cleared on the way to steady democratization and stability.
A general election has been held in Thailand. With the 2014 general election judged to be invalid, the latest election sought the judgment of the people for the first time in eight years. Although a pro-junta wing and a faction connected to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra vied for the position of dominant party in the House of Representatives, both will likely fall short of gaining a majority of lower house seats.
Successive Thai prime ministers have been chosen by the lower house. Due to a constitutional revision under the military junta, 250 members of the Senate and 500 members of the House of Representatives will choose the prime minister. As upper house members will be appointed, in effect, by the military government, interim Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led a coup five years ago, is expected to stay on.
Given that Thailand has a setup to continue the military-led rule, it is difficult to say that a new administration will be based on the will of the broader public. Seven parties, including the pro-Thaksin forces, have confirmed they will cooperate to oppose such an administration.
Unless pro-junta forces win a majority of lower house seats, it will be even more difficult for the new government to take charge of the administration.
Turmoil due to the antagonism between the pro- and anti-Thaksin parties lasted for more than 10 years, resulting in the military coup.
The two parties' failure to improve their showing in the election, combined with a certain measure of popular support gained by pro-junta parties, seemingly prove that voters sought an end to the futile strife and wanted political stability.
Resolve urban-rural divide
Thai King Maha Vajiralongkorn has issued a royal command for Thaksin to be stripped of his royal decorations. The king criticized Thaksin, who was previously convicted, for continuing his flight from the country, calling it "extremely inappropriate."
The decision by the royal household, in which the Thai people place great confidence, is certain to deal an additional blow to the pro-Thaksin forces.
The pro-junta party has come out with measures to aid low-income people, with a view to collecting votes in rural areas, a support base for the pro-Thaksin forces. The antagonistic relationship between urban and rural districts in Thailand can destabilize their society and hinder the country's economic growth. How should the conflict be resolved? This is a problem facing the new administration.
Another pressing task is to promote democratization in the country. Until just before the general election, political activities had been prohibited and freedom of the press restricted. Due to the junta's ulterior motives, the election schedule was postponed several times.
Protracted political confusion in Thailand, a major country in Southeast Asia, could adversely affect its neighbors.
This year, Thailand will serve as chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and in June, it will participate in the summit meeting of the Group of 20 major economies in Osaka. Thailand should realize that the world will pay more attention to it than in other years.
A large number of Japanese-owned companies are operating in Thailand, with more than 70,000 Japanese living there. The Japanese government must continue to urge Thailand to achieve a smooth shift to civil administration.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, April 3, 2019)
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