DALLAS — Texas Democrats will gather this week in Dallas to figure out the best way to push a boulder up a hill.
In November, Texans will elect their statewide leaders and numerous other legislative and executive posts. So at their state convention that begins Thursday, Democrats will try to rally their nominees and develop messages that will appeal to a majority of voters.
But they have a big problem.
Democrats haven’t won a statewide election since 1994. Republicans have a stronghold on the state in the governor’s office, the Legislature and on the Supreme Court. And though Democrats have cut the margin of their defeats over the years, they still have an uphill battle.
If you’re trying to gauge how to describe the political dynamic here, realize that Texas is a state where Democrats are competitive, but a significant distance from flipping the state from red to blue.
Republicans are on top because they enjoy a structural advantage in statewide elections, meaning that in any given contest the Republican candidate has the backing of a larger base of voters. Political operatives have put the GOP political advantage between 750,000 and 1 million voters in a general election.
To start winning statewide races, Democrats must offset the GOP’s advantage by bringing new or infrequent voters into the electorate and developing policies that appeal to independents, moderates and soft Republicans.
It’s a tough task, and the burgeoning conflict between progressive and moderate Democrats could create problems with appeals to voters outside the party’s normal base.
Up until the mid-1990s, Texas was a solid blue state. After the Reconstruction era that followed the Civil War, Democrats staged the biggest political show in most Texas towns. The party had a conservative, moderate and liberal wing. Texas sent outsize personalities to the national stage. The long list included U.S. House Speaker Sam Rayburn, Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, Rep. Barbara Jordan and President Lyndon B. Johnson.
Republicans benefited when conservative Democrats started leaving the party, a migration completed after Ronald Reagan’s revolution. George W. Bush became the second GOP governor in Texas since Reconstruction, beating incumbent Democrat Ann Richards in 1994.
Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke is trying to upset two-term incumbent Republican Greg Abbott to be the first Democrat to win a governor’s race since Richards’ victory in 1990.
But Democrats haven’t replaced the conservative-leaning voters they have lost since the state’s power shift. Their policy proposals, which range from moderate to very progressive, are deal breakers for the more conservative voters who may be looking for alternatives.
O’Rourke had some crossover appeal in his 2018 race against Ted Cruz, who beat him by 2.6 percentage points. But his subsequent and ill-fated 2020 presidential bid revealed liberal views that could hamper his ability to get some conservatives to listen, including his stands on immigration and gun control.
Texas conservative voters, even those who are unhappy with their state leaders, are unlikely to vote for a Democrat.
That means Democrats have to turn out a high percentage of their most reliable voters and find new support. Warning: Candidates that rely on new voters almost always lose.
Still, Dallas County Democratic Party Chairwoman Kristy Noble believes North Texas could be the answer. Dallas County is solidly blue, but nearly 500,000 voters, according to various studies, didn’t participate in the 2020 general election. If Democrats can get increased turnout in urban areas … I know, you’ve heard it all before.
Democrats have been waiting for decades to take advantage of the booming Hispanic population and hope to get the lion’s share of votes as that community slowly adds reliable voters to the electorate.
But Texas Republicans are making a renewed push for Hispanic voters, particularly in South Texas areas that historically support Democrats but could be attracted to the GOP’s conservative approaches to religion and family.
Democrats hope Texans who want to preserve abortion rights, bolster voting rights and reject the policies of Republicans will show up in November. Republicans believe they are energized as well.
Whatever the case, if Democrats can’t add voters to the electorate, they will lose again.
Making that task harder are President Joe Biden and the national party. Biden’s approval rating is dangerously low as the midterm election approaches, and voters are concerned about inflation and high gas prices.
National Democrats can be horrible with messaging, particularly in conservative states. Democrats here are saddled with notions that their national party is too elite and too far left on issues like decreasing police funding and environmental proposals like the Green New Deal. Inside the state, policies in the city of Austin related to cutting police funding haven’t exactly been winning issues in moderate areas.
That’s why Lone Star Democrats, at their convention and beyond, have to articulate a Texas message that resonates statewide, not just in blue areas.
If they can’t, the mantra will again be wait until next time.
