Sen. John Cornyn is trailing behind Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 22 points in one of the country's most-watched primary races, which will likely pit two factions of MAGA Republicans against each other.
The figure comes from a poll released by the Educational Freedom Institute and conducted by pollster Robert Blizzard. It was conducted May 27-28 among 600 Texas Republican primary voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The survey showed Paxton leading Cornyn 50% to 28% among Republican primary voters. More specifically, the attorney general expanded his lead among voters described as "very conservative GOP primary voters," leading Cornyn 60% to 22%. The poll also showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 35 points among "MAGA voters" and by 12 points among senior voters.
This isn't the first poll to show such results. Last month, the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP leadership-aligned super PAC backing Cornyn, showed the incumbent down 16 points in a survey conducted between April 27 and May 1.
Likewise, last week, a poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University showed Paxton leading in a hypothetical two-way contest with 43% to Cornyn's 34%, and 23% unsure.
Patrick Flavin, professor and interim chair of political science at Baylor University, said the poll is concerning for Cornyn because both candidates had high name recognition, so his polling deficit is not because voters are unfamiliar with him.
"I think Cornyn is probably suffering from what's a larger issue in Texas politics, which is the divide in the Republican Party between a more Trump-supporting version versus a more traditional, business version," he said. "Paxton and Cornyn perfectly characterize those two factions in the Republican Party."
The incumbent, who was first elected in 2002, faces an "uphill battle" because he cannot run to the right of Paxton on key issues to win over those more conservative voters, Newsweek argues. Instead, he can hammer away at Paxton's legal and ethical scandals, though it's less clear whether that will resonate with Texas Republicans.
However, Cornyn's team is not worried about the recent polls, with his campaign saying in a recent statement to The Hill that it was "silly season for polling and this one takes the gold medal."
"A poll conducted by a longtime Paxton supporter doesn't pass the smell test. We remain confident that once Republican primary voters fully understand Ken Paxton's record of ethical failures, mismanagement and corruption, we will win this primary," said Matt Mackowiak, a Cornyn campaign senior adviser.
But despite this race being often characterized as a battle between two MAGA factions, President Trump himself has yet to make an endorsement. Last month, he told reporters "I like Paxton, I like Cornyn, they're both good people. So, I'll make a decision somewhere along the line. But you have two very good men."
The Texas Senate GOP primary is scheduled for March 2026, leaving both candidates with enough time to solidify their bases. For now, it remains unclear whether other Republicans will join the race, or who will be running on the Democratic side (former Rep. Colin Allred, who unsuccessfully ran against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 has been floated as a potential candidate, though he has no confirmed plans of running again).
Nevertheless, this race is considered as Solid Republican, meaning it is "not considered competitive" nor "likely to become closely contested," according to The Cook Political Report.
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