The 6-4 Houston Texans come into their Thursday night matchup with the 6-4 Indianapolis Colts as slight favorites at NRG Stadium.
Thursday night’s Texans vs. Colts battle isn’t just another chapter of a growing rivalry, it’s one with deep playoff implications — with the winner taking full-control of the tight AFC South. Here is what the experts say about the game:
CBS Sports (Cody Benjamin): Texans
CBS Sports’ Cody Benjamin has the Texans winning in a close bout, 24-23. The reason being the NRG Stadium home field advantage and the need for redemption for Deshaun Watson and Co.
“Pretty much every AFC South game is a coin flip. This is no exception. The Colts should be able to attack Houston’s secondary, but Deshaun Watson will be out to prove Week 11’s flop was an anomaly. At home on a short week, he gets the slight edge,” said Benjamin.
USA Today: Texans
USA Today seems to be keen on the Texans’ chances to take the crown of the AFC South back. Six out of their seven choosers have Houston winning at home, none in a blowout fashion, with the largest margin of victory being five points.
- Jarrett Bell: Texans, 24-21
- Nate Davis: Texans, 28-24
- Jori Epstein: Texans, 27-21
- Mike Jones: Texans, 27-25
- Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz: 27-26
- Lorenzo Reyes: 27-22
- Tom Schad: 28-22
By the looks of USA Today picks, Thursday’s short-week game is going to be a thriller that goes down to the waning moments — as many of the Texans vs. Colts games as of late have been.
NFL.com (Greg Rosenthal): Texans
New prediction, same result: experts siding with the Texans in a tight game. Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com has Houston winning the contest on the basis of Deshaun Watson not playing two bad games in a row, but states the Colts playing them close due to a banged-up secondary.
“Thursday Night Football in mid-November often comes down to which players are available. The banged-up Texans secondary should make life easier for Jacoby Brissett, especially because the Houston pass rush has so little juice, ranking 31st in pass rush win rate when J.J. Watt is not on the field. Indy cornerback Pierre Desir appears to be back, and the Colts have more defensive difference-makers, with Justin Houston and Darius Leonard both coming on strong. So my pick could flip after game day inactives are announced, depending on whether Will Fuller and/or T.Y. Hilton line up for extra vertical fun. For now, I’m leaning Texans because Deshaun Watson isn’t about to play two games in a row that poorly,” said Rosenthal.
Texans 25-24.
Pro Football Focus: Texans
The robots are taking over. Okay, maybe not — yet. However, technology, with the boom of analytics, does have a say in the Texans vs. Colts divisional tilt, with the home-field team taking home victory mid-week. Here is what the analytics say about the Texans’ predicted win.
Our model gives the Texans a 65% chance to win at home on Thursday night and avenge a 30-23 loss from earlier this season in Indianapolis… Should Deshaun Watson & Co. win, they will have a 71% chance to win the division while the Colts will fall to just 22% to win the AFC South and only 36% to make it to the tournament.
As PFF notes, a Texans win would also give the Texans full control of the AFC South. A loss could doom them.
