The Houston Texans are not treating their season finale as a must-win event. Instead, they are likely to rest starters, including Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins, in a game that should be meaningless.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans’ season hinges on winning in Houston. If they don’t, they’ll have a hard time getting to the playoffs, as they will need others to help them out.
Being that the Texans are primed to rest starters, they should be the underdogs at home. Do the experts agree?
CBS Sports (Pete Prisco): Titans
CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco has the Titans winning the season finale. He had so before the news of the Texans resting starters, stating that Tennessee is the more motivated team to win. That holds true after the fact.
“The Texans will play to win here to try and get the third seed, but if the Titans win they get into the playoffs. That means more motivation to the Titans. That matters. They will win a game they have to have.”
Pick: Titans 28, 24
USA Today (Charles Curtiz, Steven Ruiz): tEXANS
Like Pete Prisco, USA Today’s “For The Win” put up their picks before the news broke of the Texans resting starters. Both Charles Curtis and Steven Ruiz had the Texans covering the 4.5-point spread, meaning they chose Houston to win bigger than Las Vegas thought.
Curtis: Texans
“The Texans might not rest their starters since they could either get the No. 3 or 4 seed. The Titans are motivated to win this game to clinch the final AFC playoff spot. So I’ll back the home dogs, figuring this one could be closer than 4.5.”
Ruiz: Texans
“Bill O’Brien says the Texans starters will play, and they are the better team playing at home AND getting points!?!? Easy pick.”
NFL.com (Gregg Rosenthal): Titans
NFL.com’s and Around The NFL’s editor Gregg Rosenthal saw right through Bill O’Brien’s bluff of “playing to win” on Sunday. He thought the Titans would win, as A.J. McCarron would be leading the ship over Deshaun Watson. The Titans are more motivated.
“Bill O’Brien said the Texans will be “playing to win” Sunday because he has to say that. He won’t know if the No. 3 seed will be available until kickoff, and he wants his team to get in a good week of preparation. And of course they will be playing to win with whoever is on the field; the Texans can only bench so many players. With that said, the Titans will basically punch their playoff ticket the moment AJ McCarron enters the game for Deshaun Watson. Just the chance of that happening is enough to pick the high-flying Titans in a game that would be a toss-up even if the Texans hadn’t already locked up the AFC South.”
Pick: Titans, 30-24
Pro Football Focus: Titans
So who do the analytics folks have to win on Sunday? All eight of Pro Football Focus‘ analysts have the Titans winning. They were the latest to put in their picks, so they likely knew of Houston resting their starters in a game that’s meaningless for them.
