The 8-4 Houston Texans are -7.5-point favorites over the 4-8 Denver Broncos in Week 14, according to BetMGM. That digit sits at the fifth-highest of the week; for a good reason, as Houston is surging while Denver is injured and will start a rookie quarterback.
The experts in Las Vegas have the Texans winning at home on Sunday. Do the NFL experts believe the same thing?
CBS Sports (Pete Prisco): Texans
The Texans, at home, have the momentum after a thrilling win over the New England Patriots. CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco sees them building on that with a win over the Drew Lock-led Broncos.
“The Broncos won in Drew Lock’s first start last week, but this will be his first road start. That will be a challenge against an improving Houston defense. The Texans lit up the Patriots last week, and Deshaun Watson will build on that. Texans take it,” said Prisco.
Pick: Texans, 26-13
USA Today: Steven Ruiz, Charles Curtis: Texans
The folks over at USA Today’s For The Win have the Texans winning on Sunday. Steven Ruiz and Charles Curtis both gave their picks against the spread, with Curtis saying the Broncos will cover and lose and Steven saying the Texans will win handily.
Curtis: Broncos
“Hey, Drew Lock looked decent! I’ll say Denver loses and covers here.”
Ruiz: Texans
“Drew Lock’s first road game? Yeah, we’ll see at least two turnovers from the rookie in Houston.”
NFL.com (Gregg Rosenthal): Texans
NFL.com’s and Around The NFL Editor Gregg Rosenthal has the Texans winning by a lot. Why? The rookie quarterback, Lock. Though he threw two touchdowns, the Los Angeles Chargers found a way to stop him before losing to him: blitz, which the Texans are bound to do.
“Drew Lock threw a befuddling 33-yard completion to end his first half in the NFL last Sunday, rather than use his huge arm to throw a Hail Mary. On Lock’s other 27 throws, the Broncos gained 102 yards for an average of 3.18 yards per attempt. Once the Chargers started blitzing, as Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel is sure to do Sunday, Lock immediately ran or dumped the ball off for a minimal gain. The Texans defense without J.J. Watt has been a pleasant surprise long enough to believe it’s a trend, one that should continue against a quarterback not ready to keep his team competitive in a tough road environment,” said Rosenthal.
Pick: Texans, 26-10
Pro Football Focus: Texans
Don’t believe Las Vegas’ picks or the NFL experts’? How about the analytics?
Analytics firm Pro Football Focus has the Texans winning on Sunday; specifically, all of their NFL analysts do. All eight of them have Houston, concluding a panel of experts that have Houston beating Denver far more often than not.
