Stop if you heard this one before: the Houston Texans are bad.
The Touchdown Wire has dropped the defending AFC South champions down a few tiers throughout the offseason in their power rankings. In the latest preseason edition, Touchdown Wire went ahead and ranked all 32 NFL teams according to Football Outsiders’ “defense-adjust value over average.” As a result, the Texans were ranked 23rd overall.
Obviously, head coach/general manager Bill O’Brien’s completely skewed concepts of player value and crazy-quilt personnel moves factor heavily into this 2019 playoff team dropping off pretty severely. The Texans are projected to have a team DVOA of -3.3%, and an Average Wins projection of 7.5. All we have to add is, #FreeDeshaunWatson.
Like with how one has to ask who is “expecting” the points in expected points average, who is giving “value” in DVOA? Is it Ernie Adams or is it Avery Duncan? It kind of matters.
The Texans are the second-lowest AFC South team in the power rankings with the Jacksonville Jaguars the lowest at No. 28. Among division winners from a year ago, the Texans are the absolute lowest; the next division winner is Green Bay at No. 16.
Houston consistently beats the odds. Last year, the Indianapolis Colts were supposed to win the division and the Texans were a wild-card at best. In 2018, the Jaguars were supposed to keep control of the division. It doesn’t work with models, but the Texans find ways to will just enough ballgames to retain the AFC South. Since 2014, Houston has produced nine-win seasons or better in all but one of O’Brien’s years with the Texans, but this is the year they go 7-8-1. The Texans have won the division every year except two since 2014, but this is the year they don’t even make the playoffs, especially in a year with an expanded playoff field.
The Colts are the highest-ranked AFC South team at No. 6, and the Tennessee Titans are No. 14.
