The NFL free agency pool has dried up like a Hill Country lake after decades of drought.
The key free agent signings have all largely been made, pivotal trades were agreed upon, and all 32 teams had their fair shot at the draft in April. The league is now settling into the slower part of their offseason that features far less drama than they enjoyed with the release of the 2022 schedule.
However, like every offseason, there are a category headlines that never seem to fail in the drama category: contract negotiations.
Whether it’s players like the Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray deleting Instagram posts, or leaks from reporters and agent regarding someone’s unhappiness, it is officially leverage season in NFL front offices. The average NFL career is only three seasons and players have a responsibility to try to secure as much money as they can while available. General managers have a responsibility to retain as much cap flexibility as possible to try to win a Super Bowl.
Caught in the middle of this dance are the reigning AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals. Teams often make it to the Super Bowl due to overwhelming talent and then are forced to suffer from the inevitable principle that follows: you can’t pay everyone. The Bengals are having to move forward with cap flexibility in mind to hopefully extend both Tee Higgins and certainly star quarterback Joe Burrow in the near future.
This has left 25-year-old safety Jessie Bates in a bit of an awkward place. The 2020 second-team All-Pro has over 400 career tackles and 10 interceptions during the course of his four year career. Bates is widely considered one of the best young safeties in the league and played a huge part in their run to win the AFC Championship.
The biggest play in #Bengals Playoff History?
I have watched this play 100+ times. AMAZING!@jlbiii3 & @Vonn 🔥 #CincinnatiFootballHistory pic.twitter.com/GFZuT53GiR
— Bengal Jim’s BTR (@bengaljims_BTR) May 13, 2022
This offseason, Cincinnati was forced to play hard ball. They opted to franchise tag Bates at a $12.3 million value, far less than Bates peers such as Marcus Williams (five-years, $70 million) were signing on the free agent market. Appropriately, Bates has responded by refusing to sign the contract. This has left the two sides at a standstill as the Bengals attempt to formulate a long-term contract that works with their plans while Bates has to secure his true worth.
An update on the situation with the Bengals and Jessie Bates. https://t.co/3negV4DLW4
— The Bengals Wire (@TheBengalsWire) May 17, 2022
There are even hints of a contingency plan in Cincinnati should Bates try to hold off. The Bengals used their first-round pick at 31st overall to select Daxton Hill from Michigan, someone projected to play Bates free safety position and be used in a versatile role during his rookie season.
Should the Bengals ultimately realize they can’t fit Bates into their future plans, it looks like a situation potentially primed for Nick Caserio and the Texans to step in,
Houston did very little to address the safety position this off-season. M.J. Stewart was brought in on a one-year deal from Cleveland but otherwise they left the position alone in free agency. Bates was drafted at 37th overall but he projects as more of a “strong safety” type or more likely a “big nickel” than the free safety role that was vacated with the departure of Justin Reid.
The Texans have excess draft capital and plenty of cap space should they choose to capitalize and onboard a talented player of Bates’ caliber. Bates would provide veteran leadership in the secondary to guys such as Pitre and third overall selection Derek Stingley. His talent at free safety would allow those rookies to play to their strengths and be aggressive knowing that Bates can cover up a variety of mistakes at the back end.
The arrival of No. 30 in Houston would signal a total transformation of the secondary from a year ago. Bates and Pitre at the two safety positions with Stingley and Nelson manning the boundary corners and Tavierre Thomas in the slot would qualify as the team’s best unit. At only 25 years old, this could be one of the teams strengths to build on as they create the foundation of a promising rebuild.
Jessie Bates just turned 25 years old and has 408 tackles and 10 interceptions over his four-year career.
Nick Caserio should seriously inquire about the 2020 All-Pro to finish his off-season secondary transformation. Young, elite talent with a veteran presence #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/eJBsnSsqMW
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) May 18, 2022
Bates’ contract would likely look similar to Williams in Baltimore. Houston has over $45 million in cap space for the 2023 season and could easily front-load the contract while the team is still in a “rebuilding” year to create space to build around Davis Mills or a rookie quarterback in 2024 and beyond.
The cost of acquisition would be interesting. The Seattle Seahawks vastly overpaid for safety Jamaal Adams, sending two first round picks and a third just two years ago to the New York Jets. The trade is largely seen around the league as one of the worst. It’s a position the league doesn’t seem to value, as seen with the fall of prospect Kyle Hamilton this past month and how long All-Pro Tyrann Mathieu stayed unsigned.
It’s very realistic to think that Caserio could gather Bates’ services without surrendering a first-round pick. Sending a second and a fourth for a foundational building block, the kind that likely wouldn’t sign with your team in its current state, would signal to the league Houston wants to compete and is giving Lovie Smith every opportunity to succeed.
In all likelihood, Cincinnati will find a way to retain their home grown talent. However, should the floor fall out from the situation this is one that the Texans should watch very closely. The perfect combination of need and talent may just present itself.
